deltadog03 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 New weather video is up, and we are talking model trends/ideas/cliff jumping ...LOL just for the record, I am loving the pattern where we are going. Is it set in stone, no sir or ma'am. There will be winners and losers, but who gets what is still up for grabs. I really think the SE is in for a fun ride. It **MAY** start in the southern plains and mid-south first. We shall see. Y'all have a GREAT and wonderful and Merry Christmas tomorrow. I am taking the day off from Social Media. Might check here, but nada on FB. Enjoy the video, shoutouts and I have a question at the end for everyone. Post on my page if you want. Have a great night!! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 New weather video is up, and we are talking model trends/ideas/cliff jumping ...LOL just for the record, I am loving the pattern where we are going. Is it set in stone, no sir or ma'am. There will be winners and losers, but who gets what is still up for grabs. I really think the SE is in for a fun ride. It **MAY** start in the southern plains and mid-south first. We shall see. Y'all have a GREAT and wonderful and Merry Christmas tomorrow. I am taking the day off from Social Media. Might check here, but nada on FB. Enjoy the video, shoutouts and I have a question at the end for everyone. Post on my page if you want. Have a great night!! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Chris, I do to. This kind of pattern is oh so likely to produce for me, if the timing is right. Need that rain underneath and everything else can take care of it's self. I'm enthused for the first time in a good long while. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Just looked at the seven day local forecast. Looks like more precipitation coming in for Monday through Wednesday, just like we had this week. If we are going to be in a repeating pattern of precipitation like that, then it is just a matter of time before we cash in and get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Well here's hoping for somthing to track very soon, but in the meantime..... Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Don't even care this misses central NC, just as long as someone in the E/SE get's snow in the next 10 days. Speak for yourself! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Just looked at the seven day local forecast. Looks like more precipitation coming in for Monday through Wednesday, just like we had this week. If we are going to be in a repeating pattern of precipitation like that, then it is just a matter of time before we cash in and get snow. If we're going to get a repeating pattern.... If we get a SSW.... If the models are overdoing the SE ridge.... If the trough east of Hawaii.... If the energy dropping into the SW on all the models is wrong.... If the typhoon recurves.... If the MJO is irrelevant.... If ninos mysteriously produce nina conditions.... If the Cubs win the World Series.... If Taco Bell doesn't cause bloating... If, if, if.... Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Looks like the GFS is preparing to deliver us some coal for Christmas. I love how our December 29/30th threat has morphed into a cold drizzle storm. Looks like good snows for SoCal at D6. EDIT: It actually is colder than the 18z run, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Chris, I do to. This kind of pattern is oh so likely to produce for me, if the timing is right. Need that rain underneath and everything else can take care of it's self. I'm enthused for the first time in a good long while. T I agree...I really think the pattern will produce...It might take longer than what people are willing to take..I love the slider systems that have a nice overrunning ring to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 If we're going to get a repeating pattern.... If we get a SSW.... If the models are overdoing the SE ridge.... If the trough east of Hawaii.... If the energy dropping into the SW on all the models is wrong.... If the typhoon recurves.... If the MJO is irrelevant.... If ninos mysteriously produce nina conditions.... If the Cubs win the World Series.... If Taco Bell doesn't cause bloating... If, if, if.... Yeah.well, the Cowboys made the playoffs so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 If we're going to get a repeating pattern.... If we get a SSW.... If the models are overdoing the SE ridge.... If the trough east of Hawaii.... If the energy dropping into the SW on all the models is wrong.... If the typhoon recurves.... If the MJO is irrelevant.... If ninos mysteriously produce nina conditions.... If the Cubs win the World Series.... If Taco Bell doesn't cause bloating... If, if, if.... Yeah. Don't forget ..... If CR was positive for one day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Looks like the GFS is preparing to deliver us some coal for Christmas. I love how our December 29/30th threat has morphed into a cold drizzle storm. Looks like good snows for SoCal at D6. EDIT: It actually is colder than the 18z run, though. Per the GFS we don't drop below freezing the rest of this year. That has to be a good omen...doesn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 One thing that all the models are showing is that the SE ridge will pretty much block wintry weather for the areas east of the mountains and south of WVa. for the foreseeable future. Not what I was hoping to see as we approach the New Year. Does look like the Ala, Ark, Tenn areas could cash in in the next 10-15 days so at least all of us in the SE won't be shut out. Hopefully the models will weaken the ridge like we saw last year and allow the cold air to filter over the mountains for those on the SE seaboard states. Not giving up yet but am getting a little worried that this pattern will not deliver for us well into January after another very bland December. As Webber has shown though, sometimes Nino years get a late start in the SE but can deliver ice and sometimes snowstorms late Jan., and February into early March, so there is still time. Whatever the weather, everyone have a safe, blessed and Merry Christmas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Per the GFS we don't drop below freezing the rest of this year. That has to be a good omen...doesn't it. Soil temps are gonna suck for our blockbuster storm after New Year's, then. One thing that all the models are showing is that the SE ridge will pretty much block wintry weather for the areas east of the mountains and south of WVa. for the foreseeable future. Not what I was hoping to see as we approach the New Year. Does look like the Ala, Ark, Tenn areas could cash in in the next 10-15 days so at least all of us in the SE won't be shut out. Hopefully the models will weaken the ridge like we saw last year and allow the cold air to filter over the mountains for those on the SE seaboard states. Not giving up yet but am getting a little worried that this pattern will not deliver for us well into January after another very bland December. As Webber has shown though, sometimes Nino years get a late start in the SE but can deliver ice and sometimes snowstorms late Jan., and February into early March, so there is still time Isn't a bit of a ridge conducive to an overrunning pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Se ridge is much weaker this run and really not much of one. It has subtle height rises in the east in response to the cutoff low in the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 One thing that all the models are showing is that the SE ridge will pretty much block wintry weather for the areas east of the mountains and south of WVa. for the foreseeable future. Not what I was hoping to see as we approach the New Year. Does look like the Ala, Ark, Tenn areas could cash in in the next 10-15 days so at least all of us in the SE won't be shut out. Hopefully the models will weaken the ridge like we saw last year and allow the cold air to filter over the mountains for those on the SE seaboard states. Not giving up yet but am getting a little worried that this pattern will not deliver for us well into January after another very bland December. As Webber has shown though, sometimes Nino years get a late start in the SE but can deliver ice and sometimes snowstorms late Jan., and February into early March, so there is still time. Whatever the weather, everyone have a safe, blessed and Merry Christmas!!Most of the memorable snow and ice storms from the past 15 years have been mid-January and later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Well, the GFS is sure bringing the rain post-truncation as the ULL finally slides east. The fire hose is open from the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Well, the GFS is sure bringing the rain post-truncation as the ULL finally slides east. The fire hose is open from the Gulf. Jan 7th and still not below freezing. Let's see if we can make it to the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Don't forget ..... If CR was positive for one day... I was positive yesterday. Were you on vacation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Jan 7th and still not below freezing. Let's see if we can make it to the 10th. Doubt it. LR looks awful. This run is a disaster. Nice and cold for the northern portion of the country, but the cold doesn't make it south of 40N or so at all. On to the Canadian... Of course, looking at an op run post-truncation is a stupid thing in the first place, yet here we are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Doubt it. LR looks awful. This run is a disaster. Nice and cold for the northern portion of the country, but the cold doesn't make it south of 40N or so at all. On to the Canadian... Of course, looking at an op run post-truncation is a stupid thing in the first place, yet here we are! It shouldn't be that easy to go 16 freakin days in the heart of winter and not get below freezing on the GFS, which spits out fantasy blizzards every other run. We suck, we can't even get model cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Time to burn effigies of Judah Cohen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 It shouldn't be that easy to go 16 freakin days in the heart of winter and not get below freezing on the GFS, which spits out fantasy blizzards every other run. We suck, we can't even get model cold. The Para GFS is much, much better. Might it setup our post-NYD storm? And, yeah, going a full 2+ weeks without sub-freezing temperatures would be a disaster... and it's been awhile since we've been below freezing as it is. Could we go 3 weeks during the heart of the most epic winter of our lives without touching 32? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Time to burn effigies of Judah Cohen? The size of Bricks acorns have a better shot of predicting the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The Para GFS is much, much better. Might it setup our post-NYD storm? And, yeah, going a full 2+ weeks without sub-freezing temperatures would be a disaster... and it's been awhile since we've been below freezing as it is. Could we go 3 weeks during the heart of the most epic winter of our lives without touching 32? I doubt it. Para sucks too. PV split fail on the GFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Para sucks too. PV split fail on the GFS too. Where do you get the Para so quickly? It's only out to hr 186 on WB and NCEP. At least we get sub-freezing lows in the next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 CMC gives the MA a foot of snow on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Beware early winter cold. Gets us every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Beware early winter cold. Gets us every time. You said it, the typhoon killed our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Where do you get the Para so quickly? It's only out to hr 186 on WB and NCEP. At least we get sub-freezing lows in the next week... SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The size of Bricks acorns have a better shot of predicting the AO. Leave Brick's acorns out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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