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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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New weather video is up, and we are talking model trends/ideas/cliff jumping ...LOL  just for the record, I am loving the pattern where we are going.  Is it set in stone, no sir or ma'am.  There will be winners and losers, but who gets what is still up for grabs.  I really think the SE is in for a fun ride.  It **MAY** start in the southern plains and mid-south first.  We shall see.  Y'all have a GREAT and wonderful and Merry Christmas tomorrow.  I am taking the day off from Social Media.  Might check here, but nada on FB. Enjoy the video, shoutouts and I have a question at the end for everyone.  Post on my page if you want.  Have a great night!!  -Chris  

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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New weather video is up, and we are talking model trends/ideas/cliff jumping ...LOL  just for the record, I am loving the pattern where we are going.  Is it set in stone, no sir or ma'am.  There will be winners and losers, but who gets what is still up for grabs.  I really think the SE is in for a fun ride.  It **MAY** start in the southern plains and mid-south first.  We shall see.  Y'all have a GREAT and wonderful and Merry Christmas tomorrow.  I am taking the day off from Social Media.  Might check here, but nada on FB. Enjoy the video, shoutouts and I have a question at the end for everyone.  Post on my page if you want.  Have a great night!!  -Chris  

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

Chris, I do to.  This kind of pattern is oh so likely to produce for me, if the timing is right.  Need that rain underneath and everything else can take care of it's self.  I'm enthused for the first time in a good long while.  T

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Just looked at the seven day local forecast. Looks like more precipitation coming in for Monday through Wednesday, just like we had this week. If we are going to be in a repeating pattern of precipitation like that, then it is just a matter of time before we cash in and get snow.

If we're going to get a repeating pattern.... If we get a SSW.... If the models are overdoing the SE ridge.... If the trough east of Hawaii.... If the energy dropping into the SW on all the models is wrong.... If the typhoon recurves.... If the MJO is irrelevant.... If ninos mysteriously produce nina conditions.... If the Cubs win the World Series.... If Taco Bell doesn't cause bloating... If, if, if.... Yeah.

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Chris, I do to.  This kind of pattern is oh so likely to produce for me, if the timing is right.  Need that rain underneath and everything else can take care of it's self.  I'm enthused for the first time in a good long while.  T

I agree...I really think the pattern will produce...It might take longer than what people are willing to take..I love the slider systems that have a nice overrunning ring to them.

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If we're going to get a repeating pattern.... If we get a SSW.... If the models are overdoing the SE ridge.... If the trough east of Hawaii.... If the energy dropping into the SW on all the models is wrong.... If the typhoon recurves.... If the MJO is irrelevant.... If ninos mysteriously produce nina conditions.... If the Cubs win the World Series.... If Taco Bell doesn't cause bloating... If, if, if.... Yeah.

well, the Cowboys made the playoffs so anything is possible.
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If we're going to get a repeating pattern.... If we get a SSW.... If the models are overdoing the SE ridge.... If the trough east of Hawaii.... If the energy dropping into the SW on all the models is wrong.... If the typhoon recurves.... If the MJO is irrelevant.... If ninos mysteriously produce nina conditions.... If the Cubs win the World Series.... If Taco Bell doesn't cause bloating... If, if, if.... Yeah.

Don't forget ..... If CR was positive for one day...

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Looks like the GFS is preparing to deliver us some coal for Christmas.

 

I love how our December 29/30th threat has morphed into a cold drizzle storm.

 

Looks like good snows for SoCal at D6.

 

EDIT: It actually is colder than the 18z run, though.

Per the GFS we don't drop below freezing the rest of this year. That has to be a good omen...doesn't it.

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One thing that all the models are showing is that the SE ridge will pretty much block wintry weather for the areas east of the mountains and south of WVa. for the foreseeable future. Not what I was hoping to see as we approach the New Year. Does look like the Ala, Ark, Tenn areas could cash in in the next 10-15 days so at least all of us in the SE won't be shut out. Hopefully the models will weaken the ridge like we saw last year and allow the cold air to filter over the mountains for those on the SE seaboard states. Not giving up yet but am getting a little worried that this pattern will not deliver for us well into January after another very bland December. As Webber has shown though, sometimes Nino years get a late start in the SE but can deliver ice and sometimes snowstorms late Jan., and February into early March, so there is still time. Whatever the weather, everyone have a safe, blessed and Merry Christmas!!

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Per the GFS we don't drop below freezing the rest of this year. That has to be a good omen...doesn't it.

 

Soil temps are gonna suck for our blockbuster storm after New Year's, then.  :yikes:  :lol:

 

One thing that all the models are showing is that the SE ridge will pretty much block wintry weather for the areas east of the mountains and south of WVa. for the foreseeable future. Not what I was hoping to see as we approach the New Year. Does look like the Ala, Ark, Tenn areas could cash in in the next 10-15 days so at least all of us in the SE won't be shut out. Hopefully the models will weaken the ridge like we saw last year and allow the cold air to filter over the mountains for those on the SE seaboard states. Not giving up yet but am getting a little worried that this pattern will not deliver for us well into January after another very bland December. As Webber has shown though, sometimes Nino years get a late start in the SE but can deliver ice and sometimes snowstorms late Jan., and February into early March, so there is still time

 

Isn't a bit of a ridge conducive to an overrunning pattern?

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One thing that all the models are showing is that the SE ridge will pretty much block wintry weather for the areas east of the mountains and south of WVa. for the foreseeable future. Not what I was hoping to see as we approach the New Year. Does look like the Ala, Ark, Tenn areas could cash in in the next 10-15 days so at least all of us in the SE won't be shut out. Hopefully the models will weaken the ridge like we saw last year and allow the cold air to filter over the mountains for those on the SE seaboard states. Not giving up yet but am getting a little worried that this pattern will not deliver for us well into January after another very bland December. As Webber has shown though, sometimes Nino years get a late start in the SE but can deliver ice and sometimes snowstorms late Jan., and February into early March, so there is still time. Whatever the weather, everyone have a safe, blessed and Merry Christmas!!

Most of the memorable snow and ice storms from the past 15 years have been mid-January and later.
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Jan 7th and still not below freezing. Let's see if we can make it to the 10th.

 

Doubt it.  LR looks awful.  This run is a disaster.  Nice and cold for the northern portion of the country, but the cold doesn't make it south of 40N or so at all.  On to the Canadian...

 

Of course, looking at an op run post-truncation is a stupid thing in the first place, yet here we are! :D

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Doubt it.  LR looks awful.  This run is a disaster.  Nice and cold for the northern portion of the country, but the cold doesn't make it south of 40N or so at all.  On to the Canadian...

 

Of course, looking at an op run post-truncation is a stupid thing in the first place, yet here we are! :D

It shouldn't be that easy to go 16 freakin days in the heart of winter and not get below freezing on the GFS, which spits out fantasy blizzards every other run.

We suck, we can't even get model cold.

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It shouldn't be that easy to go 16 freakin days in the heart of winter and not get below freezing on the GFS, which spits out fantasy blizzards every other run.

We suck, we can't even get model cold.

 

The Para GFS is much, much better.  Might it setup our post-NYD storm?

 

And, yeah, going a full 2+ weeks without sub-freezing temperatures would be a disaster... and it's been awhile since we've been below freezing as it is.  Could we go 3 weeks during the heart of the most epic winter of our lives without touching 32?  I doubt it.

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The Para GFS is much, much better.  Might it setup our post-NYD storm?

 

And, yeah, going a full 2+ weeks without sub-freezing temperatures would be a disaster... and it's been awhile since we've been below freezing as it is.  Could we go 3 weeks during the heart of the most epic winter of our lives without touching 32?  I doubt it.

Para sucks too. PV split fail on the GFS too.

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