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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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The EPS does keep the -EPO going in the LR and a trough in the east so cold air is around. Looks like it tries to develop some blocking (-AO) but a big old +NAO as the PV stays in Hudson Bay the entire time.

The -ao signal is gaining every day. Euro shows the beginning of a -nao as the + height anomaly field expands in the polar region. This is a big deal. I made a post in the ma subforum last night that I was getting the feeling an extended blocking period was about to start showing up. I'm pretty stoked right now tbh. PV is also further south in canada compared to last night's run.

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The EPS does keep the -EPO going in the LR and a trough in the east so cold air is around. Looks like it tries to develop some blocking (-AO) but a big old +NAO as the PV stays in Hudson Bay the entire time.

yeah the trends are to keep the epo/ao negative. The ensembles drop the core of the cold east of the Rockies towards Texas. Canada stays very cold for the ones that find that exciting doesn't really help us.
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The -ao signal is gaining every day. Euro shows the beginning of a -nao as the + height anomaly field expands in the polar region. This is a big deal. I made a post in the ma subforum last night that I was getting the feeling an extended blocking period was about to start showing up. I'm pretty stoked right now tbh. PV is also further south in canada compared to last night's run.

 

Thanks Bob!  Yeah, just looking at the differences from the runs a couple of days ago, night and day difference.  I don't understand why the teleconn's don't register this as a -AO? 

 

Edit:  The Euro has been over playing the SE ridge in the LR, taking that bias out this would be pretty good.  I thought SnowGoose mentioned this too?

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Thanks Bob!  Yeah, just looking at the differences from the runs a couple of days ago, night and day difference.  I don't understand why the teleconn's don't register this as a -AO? 

 

Edit:  The Euro has been over playing the SE ridge in the LR, taking that bias out this would be pretty good.  I thought SnowGoose mentioned this too?

Yep, That's the way I see it. The southeast ridge should be less pronounced as we head toward verification time. This is a Nino year after all.....will someone please tell this to the models so they will get a handle on the pattern. Just can't understand why the energy sits in the southwest and spins for days on end. I have seen it in a Nina year but it does not make good meteorological sense in a Nino. If this verifies, as shown, I will eat my share of the crow. 

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Thanks Bob!  Yeah, just looking at the differences from the runs a couple of days ago, night and day difference.  I don't understand why the teleconn's don't register this as a -AO? 

 

Edit:  The Euro has been over playing the SE ridge in the LR, taking that bias out this would be pretty good.  I thought SnowGoose mentioned this too?

Hmm yeah well it's headed negative or at least neutral at that time period....Euro doesn't make sense with the +AO...If you want to see a -AO check out the the GGEM, even the ensembles are at least -1 through the entire run. Model teleconnections are everywhere right now, none of it makes sense, well except for maybe the Canadian haha.

 

I agree with Bob that the ridge on the SE has been very inconsistent and should be the least of our worries, on a few runs it's been squashed all the way south FL almost (even when the pattern favors it), it has a lot to do with throwing the cold out west and having the ridge the way it looks, tilted east. If we can get a better look of a ridge and having the center of the cold drop to the hudson there will be no SE ridge...and IMO we're not far from a solution like that, much like what the canadian ens has been showing.

 

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Numerical indices are deceiving sometimes. The ao domain is large and the low surface pressure underneath the pv could be showing in the math because it's still in the ao domain space.

The height anomaly map tells the story. A 52 member suite at 15 day leads showing that kind of anomaly over the pole means there's quite a bit of agreement. Big signal for potential here and the gefs looks similar. All I want for Christmas is a -ao/nao and stj. Seems reasonable to me. Lol

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Numerical indices are deceiving sometimes. The ao domain is large and the low surface pressure underneath the pv could be showing in the math because it's still in the ao domain space.

The height anomaly map tells the story. A 52 member suite at 15 day leads showing that kind of anomaly over the pole means there's quite a bit of agreement. Big signal for potential here and the gefs looks similar. All I want for Christmas is a -ao/nao and stj. Seems reasonable to me. Lol

 

Me too, we are not asking for a lot.  

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Sounds good to me. I just want someone in the east to get snow in the next 10 days, I can live vicariously through the MA or the NE. Look at this Santa Bomb storm...I thought someone in the OH-V would get snow but it's a big rain storm for them too.

Remind me next year we need to root for low snow cover/extent for a -AO. Also, we want a nina next year in hopes the atmosphere responds as a nino.

Haha, I was thinking the same thing man. This SAI/OPI mess is hooey.

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Hmm yeah well it's headed negative or at least neutral at that time period....Euro doesn't make sense with the +AO...If you want to see a -AO check out the the GGEM, even the ensembles are at least -1 through the entire run. Model teleconnections are everywhere right now, none of it makes sense, well except for maybe the Canadian haha.

 

I agree with Bob that the ridge on the SE has been very inconsistent and should be the least of our worries, on a few runs it's been squashed all the way south FL almost (even when the pattern favors it), it has a lot to do with throwing the cold out west and having the ridge the way it looks, tilted east. If we can get a better look of a ridge and having the center of the cold drop to the hudson there will be no SE ridge...and IMO we're not far from a solution like that, much like what the canadian ens has been showing.

 

 

 

I thought the CMC-Ens were on there own but EPS is leaning that way for the LR.

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Sorry everyone.  Don't know when I can do a model video today.  Trying to catch up from yesterdays and last nights Thunderstorms and very heavy rain.  I will try to do when I get back to work later tonight.  Some quick thoughts on it tho....Looks VERY interesting.  VERY** interesting. The cold looks like its coming, the pattern is going to change, but who is going to be the losers and winners of that?  We will talk about that in more detail in the video, just might not be up until 930 eastern.  I think there is plenty of potential with the pattern change, let me just say that.  -Chris 

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Sorry everyone.  Don't know when I can do a model video today.  Trying to catch up from yesterdays and last nights Thunderstorms and very heavy rain.  I will try to do when I get back to work later tonight.  Some quick thoughts on it tho....Looks VERY interesting.  VERY** interesting. The cold looks like its coming, the pattern is going to change, but who is going to be the losers and winners of that?  We will talk about that in more detail in the video, just might not be up until 930 eastern.  I think there is plenty of potential with the pattern change, let me just say that.  -Chris 

 

Take the night off. It's Christmas Eve. It's not like we are in imminent danger of a raging blizzard. 

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I'm not a huge fan of any of those maps because when that 585 line is up in the Central Florida region, there's no room for really a southern storm to amplify. At best you can hope for overrunning...which with heights that close even up this way I would assume ice is more of a threat

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None of the twelve 18z Ens members on ewall were able to sync the cold with a storm.

 

 

On the strat front, saw this from Ed O'Toole (excellent strat resource)...

 

"Just had a little catch up with the models, and latest looks pretty good. We are seeing a classic upper based downward propagating wave 1 warming. This is weakening the vortex sufficiently for it to be vulnerable to a lower upward propagating wave 2 attack (the internal one) that is splitting the vortex - right up to the 10hPa level. This type of split will be unlikely to create an SSW unless we see an upper based warming coinciding with this - this is not forecast currently - though the FI 1hPa charts do not rule this out and there is a suggestion that this could occur.

 

I don't think that it matters though. Without a full vortex destroying SSW, the lower vortex is still likely to be vulnerable to further trop based wave 2 attacks and so any split trop vortex patterns could repeat. It we do see a wave 2 upper based warming (SSW) coinciding with the lower splits then we won't see  the strat vortex influencing the trop AO until the spring. I like both options and compared to last year I would grab either of them with both hands."

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Any time ip is showing west of me, and at about my level, I'm happy to wait and see.  Mostly all I do in winter anyway, is wait and see.  There is rain underneath, and cold  in the north.  Looks pretty much like most winters.  Just have to wait while the esters mingle, and the pheromones do their work :)  T

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