metwannabe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm not saying to be funny although it may seem so due to the recent mirages, but the overall 12Z GEFS pattern for the E US as a whole actually does look better after around day 10 fwiw. Now if we can only figure how to get something good within day 5 lol. New years is much colder on the gefs vs the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Still a nice signal on the GEFS for Burger's storm....going to need some luck to see something wintery, but don't we always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm not saying to be funny although it may seem so due to the recent mirages, but the overall 12Z GEFS pattern for the E US as a whole actually does look better after around day 10 fwiw. Now if we can only figure how to get something good within day 5 lol. Agreed, looks like it's trying to get some blocking going. Never really warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Still a nice signal on the GEFS for Burger's storm....going to need some luck to see something wintery, but don't we always. Not too bad. I don't have the individual members, but most likely there are some solutions either a) too far north or too far South. 850 0c in a good place for a mean. Seems the storm track would be through S. GA and right off the coast the way the precip looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Not too bad. I don't have the individual members, but most likely there are some solutions either a) too far north or too far South. 850 0c in a good place for a mean. Seems the storm track would be through S. GA the way the precip looks. Yeah, haven't looked at the members yet, we might have amped ones that are rain for us and then cold/dry ones and thus we get the mixed signal of cold/wet. Edit: Although the precip shield looks pretty good (day 6.5 - 9.5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 PV split starting over the next two weeks? http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Last winter the first of the big cold snaps went out west before they started angling east. I hate watching it moderate as it heads east but it happened last year and we ended up getting ours as well. So you're saying that last winter, for the first big cold snap (the one in late Jan), the models looked almost identical to the ones we have now? Hmm, that gives me more hope EDIT: CMC temps look beautiful @144-222. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 PV split starting over the next two weeks? http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ Looking more and more likely... GFS and Euro have been consistent on this for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wow surprised no one mentioned the CMC had multiple shots for NC and much colder look to it than the GFS. Euro out to 114 looks a little colder than the 00z run last night at the same time frame. Looks like it's going to drop a PV in the west sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 PV split starting over the next two weeks? http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ I'd say it has a good chance. Analysis -33C to -28C last two runs on that site at 10mb...warming is definitely occurring when it's been stuck at -33C for several runs in a row. Zonal wind at 1hPa still set to crash to 20 m/s by Jan 1st. for the new runs, the 00z Euro had 12z today progged at -24.1C but on initialization for the 12z Euro at 00z it has -22.8. Clearly we're warming. At the end of the run, classic PV split due to SSW, puts the PV in the hudson much like the GFS has been doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wow surprised no one mentioned the CMC had multiple shots for NC and much colder look to it than the GFS. Euro out to 114 looks a little colder than the 00z run last night at the same time frame. Looks like it's going to drop a PV in the west sooner. Via Allan on twitter...LOL. A tad chilly on 1/2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 12z Euro dumping the PV further west on this run compared to 00z. Overall at 5h it doesn't look bad...lines up with the GFS just gotta see what it does with that energy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Burger, I don't think the 12Z Euro is going to end up nearly as likeable as the 0Z Euro. The cold air ahead of any possible storm is quite a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Looks like it wants to be a triple contour diving southward. not sure it will quite happen though edit; eyes are going out I guess. not close to a triple. hah so much "color" on these wxbell maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 It's funny how common it is to see such extreme cold on all the LR models that never comes to pass. You don't usually see extreme warmth. I wonder why there's such a cold bias in the winter and not the other way around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I don't think the cold is just going to sit out west that long. It is going to come east. No need to worry, everything will come together soon, and there is plenty of winter left. The rain the past couple of days has been miserable, but I think it is a good sign. If we stay in this wet pattern, all we need is the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Looks like a possible overrunning pattern setting up with the pos tilt trough sinking to the GOM and plenty of high pressure overhead as confluence builds in up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Go west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Burger, I don't think the 12Z Euro is going to end up nearly as likeable as the 0Z Euro. The cold air ahead of any possible storm is quite a bit weaker. Yea keeping everything out west but that energy is moving and almost into TX. this could end up close to the 00z Euro last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Looks like a possible overrunning pattern setting up with the pos tilt trough sinking to the GOM and plenty of high pressure overhead as confluence builds in up north. I agree and think that is the highest likelihood atm. Just have to see how far south and east the low level cold can get. Across the mountains might be a problem . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 pretty much...every run is showing a different look with the ridge, whether it's -EPO or +PNA, or both, every run from every model seems to be different, and every model within consecutive runs seems to be different...when that's happening it's just no use stressing over specifics and throwing winter out (or snow chances) for early Jan. Clearly the models are confused even if we have our cold they're just disagreeing at the placement of the PV, where the cold gets dumped due to the ridge placement, etc. If we can get just a hairline change, we could see a nice snow threat in a lot of the modeling IMO. I can't take any of these looks for reality right now even under 200. Fun times. Congrats NE on the 12z PARA @204 with a bomb. Unfortunately we may see them cash in before we do, but what else is knew? Isn't that the truth. The differences between the models and the lack of run to run continuity is ridiculous. It's virtually impossible for me to trust any model beyond day 3 right now. There really is no need in getting worked up either way with anything they are showing until there is some at least marginal agreement and for more than one or two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 This clearly is not a good run for the SE US in comparison to the 0Z Euro. There will be no big Miller A winter storm on this run. Congrats NM/AZ/CO. You are where the cold is going on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Problem I see @186 with that energy in TX now is there isn't much confluence in the NE....looks like it might lift soon...could be wrong but just have that feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Nothing can come southeast with that 588 SE ridge parked over central Florida,everything is shoved west. That's the main problem right now in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 We have liftoff @198...energy is going to be too far north to help the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Nothing can come southeast with that 588 SE ridge parked over central Florida,everything is shoved west. That's the main problem right now in my opinion. Indeed it's been flexing it's muscle the last couple of runs of the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The key to all this is where the ridge sets up. That's why we see different solutions every run. Placement of the ridge is key Why are people looking for models to lock in on a solution 8+ days out . Really????? The GFS and euro are not gonna lock into a solution and keep it for 8 days straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I said it before but I'll be interested to see the models after this Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Looks like a D8 Apps Runner. On to 00z... Too much ridging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 This clearly is not a good run for the SE US in comparison to the 0Z Euro. There will be no big Miller A winter storm on this run. Congrats NM/AZ/CO. You are where the cold is going on this run. Don't worry, the 0z run will move everything around by a thousand miles again. To steal one from brock lesnar...Cold, warm, shuffle each run, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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