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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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So far, the 12Z GFS looks disappointing vs. earlier runs. The US cold as of 180 is quite a bit weaker than the 0Z/6Z. I can't sugar coat this.

The cold doesn't want to push east. Big signal on the last few model runs that the cold can very easily dump out in the SW or straight down into TX. Actually I'm more inclined to buy that than a dump east.

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12z GFS PARA could be the weenie run we've been hoping for. At 5h that energy in the southwest is screaming. 

 

Burger,

 Is the 12Z para colder than the regular run for the E US as a whole around days 6-10 or is it also warmer than prior runs like the 12Z op.? TIA.

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LOL  I know it will change a million times, but maybe the pattern is going to be more overrunning and icy mess vs a nice snow threat.  IDK.  at this point we can just throw darts right?

pretty much...every run is showing a different look with the ridge, whether it's -EPO or +PNA, or both, every run from every model seems to be different, and every model within consecutive runs seems to be different...when that's happening it's just no use stressing over specifics and throwing winter out (or snow chances) for early Jan. Clearly the models are confused even if we have our cold they're just disagreeing at the placement of the PV, where the cold gets dumped due to the ridge placement, etc.

 

If we can get just a hairline change, we could see a nice snow threat in a lot of the modeling IMO. I can't take any of these looks for reality right now even under 200. Fun times.

 

Congrats NE on the 12z PARA @204 with a bomb. Unfortunately we may see them cash in before we do, but what else is knew?

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 I'm not saying to be funny although it may seem so due to the recent mirages, but the overall 12Z GEFS pattern for the E US as a whole actually does look better after around day 10 fwiw. Now if we can only figure how to get something good within day 5 lol.

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