packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 PV drops into Quebec day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Energy in the SW is finally moving at a good clip @171. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Which should be good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 PV drops into Quebec day 8. Love the look at 5h. If that PV can stay in the NE we'll be money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Which should be good for us. Energy hit AZ and cutoff...gonna just spin for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Love the look at 5h. If that PV can stay in the NE we'll be money. Agreed! Probably a big weenie run. But another solution, that was different then previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So far, the 12Z GFS looks disappointing vs. earlier runs. The US cold as of 180 is quite a bit weaker than the 0Z/6Z. I can't sugar coat this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So far, the 12Z GFS looks disappointing vs. earlier runs. The US cold as of 180 is quite a bit weaker than the 0Z/6Z. I can't sugar coat this. Yea kind of just came out "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Cold air just not there for the SE this run on the GFS for New Years. Energy finally moving out of the four corners @hr 228 and is over TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So far, the 12Z GFS looks disappointing vs. earlier runs. The US cold as of 180 is quite a bit weaker than the 0Z/6Z. I can't sugar coat this. So in short, we nor the models have no idea what's going to happen past day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well after 240 it's getting its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So far, the 12Z GFS looks disappointing vs. earlier runs. The US cold as of 180 is quite a bit weaker than the 0Z/6Z. I can't sugar coat this. The cold doesn't want to push east. Big signal on the last few model runs that the cold can very easily dump out in the SW or straight down into TX. Actually I'm more inclined to buy that than a dump east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So this secondary ball of energy has been wanting to/cutting off and hanging back for many runs of multiple models now? I get my energy confused, but I think that's correct? If so, there may not be a SW bias etc in play this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The cold doesn't want to push east. Big signal on the last few model runs that the cold can very easily dump out in the SW or straight down into TX. Actually I'm more inclined to buy that than a dump east. Euro was plenty cold last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 12z GFS PARA could be the weenie run we've been hoping for. At 5h that energy in the southwest is screaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro was plenty cold last night Missed it, but I hear ice storm for western parts of the SE. The GFS keeps wanting to dig straight south or even a bit SW with the cold. Just seems like something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Missed it, but I hear ice storm for western parts of the SE. The GFS keeps wanting to dig straight south or even a bit SW with the cold. Just seems like something to watch. Actually, big ice for AL/MS/GA with sleet and snow as you get into the Carolinas. Long duration event, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 12z GFS PARA could be the weenie run we've been hoping for. At 5h that energy in the southwest is screaming. Burger, Is the 12Z para colder than the regular run for the E US as a whole around days 6-10 or is it also warmer than prior runs like the 12Z op.? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Para is more of a northern plains dump of cold. Better push into the se as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 good lord that energy just wants to stay in the desert forever..haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 GFS PARA says congrats DFW to TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Burger, Is the 12Z para colder than the regular run for the E US as a whole around days 6-10 or is it also warmer than prior runs like the 12Z op.? TIA. It's colder...but only west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 FWIW GFS PARA looks much better past 200 for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 No 12Z joy down here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Complex pattern, certainly holds promise. Finer details like vortex placement and how much energy gets injected/timing will make all the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 LOL I know it will change a million times, but maybe the pattern is going to be more overrunning and icy mess vs a nice snow threat. IDK. at this point we can just throw darts right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Last winter the first of the big cold snaps went out west before they started angling east. I hate watching it moderate as it heads east but it happened last year and we ended up getting ours as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 It seems to be kind of locked in for the TX ice and snow, and cold dump to Mexico , while I'm sure we will get the cold rain! Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 LOL I know it will change a million times, but maybe the pattern is going to be more overrunning and icy mess vs a nice snow threat. IDK. at this point we can just throw darts right? pretty much...every run is showing a different look with the ridge, whether it's -EPO or +PNA, or both, every run from every model seems to be different, and every model within consecutive runs seems to be different...when that's happening it's just no use stressing over specifics and throwing winter out (or snow chances) for early Jan. Clearly the models are confused even if we have our cold they're just disagreeing at the placement of the PV, where the cold gets dumped due to the ridge placement, etc. If we can get just a hairline change, we could see a nice snow threat in a lot of the modeling IMO. I can't take any of these looks for reality right now even under 200. Fun times. Congrats NE on the 12z PARA @204 with a bomb. Unfortunately we may see them cash in before we do, but what else is knew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm not saying to be funny although it may seem so due to the recent mirages, but the overall 12Z GEFS pattern for the E US as a whole actually does look better after around day 10 fwiw. Now if we can only figure how to get something good within day 5 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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