Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Not sure if anyone expected models to have everything figured out after it did a complete 180 in one day, so I'll gladly take this run. Give me the cold. The minute we don't have that anywhere close to the US, even modeled in the west, is when we need to worry. Watching how quickly the cold drops and paying attention to the PNA is key...it broke down quick last few runs I think and re-established itself. This time it held a lot longer. You could tell the 00z was going to be bad when the core of the cold was sitting there and not dropping....nothing to get the highs out of the west and the 850mbs above freezing over the SE is the result. Euro should be interesting tonight, PARA looks completely different as expected.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Webberweather, in one of your posts you referred to DTs simple analysis on the QBO, and the sun. Can you elaborate? The biggest qualm I have had forecasting this winter is the interaction. I may be oversimplifying but labitzke's work, showed a kind of anti synergistic relationship between the sun and the QBO. The -QBO + SMax or +QBO + Smin = lack of blocking/SSWs. While -QBO + Smin or +QBO + SMax = an increased level of blocking. Is this correct and could this be the case this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 CMC looks to me like it's probably going to be better. PV looks more favorable in central Canada. We'll see where it goes. Yeah, not shoving anything into the SW. Funny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I think that is a fair assessment. It isn't bad by any means. But it is a disappointment vs the last two runs. Maybe it will revert back by 12Z. yes sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Whole GFS run looked whacky as early as day 4 -I don't remember seeing many arctic airmasses hover over the middle of the country like that for days without moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 GFS picking up some snow @204... hmm Off-topic, but at hour 372-384 I notice a slight cold bulge into MT/ND for the 2m temps. Could this be another blast of artic air, or is this normal? P.S. I'm pretty amateur on meteorology xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Anything is on the table but I still lean towards a colder east due to the overall trends since before yesterday. GFS certainly didn't look like it was on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 At least the GFS PARA has cold coming @300 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 CMC aint beautiful but it keeps the SE cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 GEFS not quite as bad. Moves cold into the east @180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Not much difference between the 00z and 12z so far. Might be a hair west with the PV @72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Burger, I don't like the west coast ridge quite as much on the 0Z Euro vs. 12Z Euro though it is fairly subtle. Hopefully, that's not a sign that it won't be as good later in the run vs 12Z. Edit: This has the look of a run that will likely dig more into the SW than the great 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Burger, I don't like the west coast ridge quite as much on the 0Z Euro vs. 12Z Euro though it is fairly subtle. Hopefully, that's not a sign that it won't be as good later in the run vs 12Z. Yea PV placement isn't quite as good. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Looks like the 12/29 system will track further NW than the 12z run to me. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 One thing I noticed is the Christmas storm doesn't wrap up as much into Canada. Gonna have to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Burger, I don't like the west coast ridge quite as much on the 0Z Euro vs. 12Z Euro though it is fairly subtle. Hopefully, that's not a sign that it won't be as good later in the run vs 12Z. Edit: This has the look of a run that will likely dig more into the SW than the great 12Z Euro. They can't all be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 More western look to me with the cold. Not that much but it's there. Will have to see if the Euro still has fun and games in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Burger, I don't like the west coast ridge quite as much on the 0Z Euro vs. 12Z Euro though it is fairly subtle. Hopefully, that's not a sign that it won't be as good later in the run vs 12Z. Edit: This has the look of a run that will likely dig more into the SW than the great 12Z Euro. Funky look with the PV spreads all across Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 They can't all be great True. They almost always fluctuate quite a bit. Regardless, I feel there's a decent chance that those great 12Z type runs will be back and maybe soon. Also, this 0Z Euro looks quite a bit better than the 0Z GFS: silver lining. So, it could still get interesting later in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 True. They almost always fluctuate quite a bit. Regardless, I feel there's a decent chance that those great 12Z type runs will be back and maybe soon. Also, this 0Z Euro looks quite a bit better than the 0Z GFS: silver lining. So, it could still get interesting later in this run. That storm @135 is all amped up....gonna see that head NE and help push the PV down for us. Probably gonna look good at 200...but it's gonna be at 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 @150 cold is making it's way east....looks better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 1054 high in W Canada 150 hours! But not coming down fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 1054 high in W Canada 150 hours! But not coming down fast. @156 we're about to be in the ice box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 light SN TN 162 as Arctic spills in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Burger, are we possibly setting up for an overrunning/Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Huge cold outbreak over the entire US @180.....WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Cold is on our doorstep by hr 168. I think this actually might setup okay... It took awhile for the cold to get in, but now that it's here... It seems that the trough orientation would be more conducive to a storm forming. No overbearing cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Burger, are we setting up for an overrunning/Miller A? It was durn close...didn't quite do it though. Still potential in that time frame for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Congrats south Texas .....huge cold dump on this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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