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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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This should probably be in banter, but I kind of want more eyes on it to maybe get an answer?

 

The NCEP servers being slow, having to suspend the Parallel runs, etc... what is going on?  Is it a DDoS, an actual system bug, a hack?  Or is everything just quiet about it?  I know they had to send their model runs to another server in Boulder, CO.

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I wonder if the CFS is dry because the cold is overwhelming.

 

It could be since Arctic air is dry by nature. However, I'd welcome that opportunity. The very cold Feb. Of 1895 was like that (only 2" of rainfall ATL) and yet it produced three snowstorms there adding up to a whopping 11.6" there, the snowiest on record!

Besides, a cold winter would mean a lot of excitement, regardless, though I'd strongly prefer we also get one or two nice winter storms.

 

Larry, I'm with you. I'll take all the cold air I can get and settle up with moisture later. 

 

The sub-weekly 0z and 6z (0z was even wetter) offer some hope for moisture in January FWIW...

 

gWsmNNv.png

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YES Jon please can we have that verify??  I have a big favor to ask...Can some do a JAN and FEB, temps and precip for the county for 1978 please...

First point, yes I'm crossing my fingers this CFS run is verbatim what happens! haha

 

Bold part: Actually, I could probably do that if no one else does. Do you mean the months averaged or separate? and you mean anomalies?

 

Edit: In comes Larry, told ya. lol

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Per the GEFS the "good pattern" starts just after day 10 and breaks down day 13.  The AO was essentially neutral through the run, maybe a hair positive.  I don't know what to think after seeing that except shrug your shoulders.  The good news is the EPO stays negative through the end of the run so just need the -AO to cooperate.

 

The end of the GEFS looks very similar to week 4 of the weeklies.  You still have ridging in the west and troughing in the east but the cold has retreated north.

 

post-2311-0-09506800-1419099672_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-58525400-1419099677_thumb.pn

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In that 79 storm, totals ranged from 4-5" of IP in Atlanta and Columbia to 8-12" of snow across much of Western/Central NC and Northwest/Northern SC. The temperatures were also very cold with Columbia seeing heavy sleet at 17º. Further north, Charlotte had 12 degrees and heavy snow but real winner was Greensboro who was at an almost unheard 7º and heavy snow for much of that afternoon.

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It sounds like things keep looking good, but I really want something to track next week. The surprise snow this morning has me pumped, even if it wasn't much, because no one saw it coming. I just don't want this to turn into the case where we keep pushing things back. I want to see a snow accumulation map that is within 7 days for a change.

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It sounds like things keep looking good, but I really want something to track next week. The surprise snow this morning has me pumped, even if it wasn't much, because no one saw it coming. I just don't want this to turn into the case where we keep pushing things back. I want to see a snow accumulation map that is within 7 days for a change.

 

I don't get where you're saying noone saw it coming. There's a whole thread dedicated to it. NAM had it the last few runs it just looked like QPF was so light most wouldn't see snow. Most didn't see snow and what was there was practically what the NAM had. 

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What it does at 5h really makes you wish it could dig a little more and get more of a negative tilt. By the way it looks like it might be setting up for fireworks around New Years.

Yes, another big cutter, if we get something it will be a few days after NYE cutter. Still 10 or so days away...

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Per the GEFS the "good pattern" starts just after day 10 and breaks down day 13.  The AO was essentially neutral through the run, maybe a hair positive.  I don't know what to think after seeing that except shrug your shoulders.  The good news is the EPO stays negative through the end of the run so just need the -AO to cooperate.

 

The end of the GEFS looks very similar to week 4 of the weeklies.  You still have ridging in the west and troughing in the east but the cold has retreated north.

Yeah the AO on the GEFS is crappy, but the 18z OP yesterday was horrible before christmas giving us a +AO throughout the period then diving on the 29th negative...not sure I can even trust the means in the LR. Specifically for the GEFS there's still a ton of spread in the individual members in the LR...lets hope it trends negative in future runs and hope the Canadian ensembles are right.

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Yes, another big cutter, if we get something it will be a few days after NYE cutter. Still 10 or so days away...

 

Not sure what Euro you're looking at. A few things, no way that energy cuts with a 1032 high coming around the lakes. Also it's doing it's typical bias of holding energy back in the SW. It splits it sending that energy to the lakes. Not happening with those parade of highs around. I love you're already calling it a cutter at 240 hours out lol. 

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Not sure what Euro you're looking at. A few things, no way that energy cuts with a 1032 high coming around the lakes. Also it's doing it's typical bias of holding energy back in the SW. It splits it sending that energy to the lakes. Not happening with those parade of highs around. I love you're already calling it a cutter at 240 hours out lol.

It's going back to dumping the teough off west. I agree with you nothing will cut if those high placements are correct

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Not sure what Euro you're looking at. A few things, no way that energy cuts with a 1032 high coming around the lakes. Also it's doing it's typical bias of holding energy back in the SW. It splits it sending that energy to the lakes. Not happening with those parade of highs around. I love you're already calling it a cutter at 240 hours out lol. 

240 looks great it's worth staying

 up tonight for lol!

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Not sure what Euro you're looking at. A few things, no way that energy cuts with a 1032 high coming around the lakes. Also it's doing it's typical bias of holding energy back in the SW. It splits it sending that energy to the lakes. Not happening with those parade of highs around. I love you're already calling it a cutter at 240 hours out lol. 

 

Trough east of HI... any energy dropping into the west is going to kick out quick.. Greenland block and 50/50 in place.. it's not going to cut.  Then I see the PV building over E Canada after the new year.  Looks good to me.

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Trough east of HI... any energy dropping into the west is going to kick out quick.. Greenland block and 50/50 in place.. it's not going to cut.  Then I see the PV building over E Canada after the new year.  Looks good to me.

 

 

The PV setting up near central Canada is a huge key to the SE cashing in. JMO

 

 

Pack is just having his yearly existential weather crisis.

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Ok, I just looked at the GFS through the end of the run and the Euro through the end of the run. The GFS has some extremely cold air nearby in Canada and/or the northern tier of the US through the end of its run. At this point, I'm fine with that. The Euro from 192 on has a very nice -NAO and at 240 has virtually a classic 50/50 with a trough incoming from the west. I'm fine with that too. It'll be interesting to see what the EPS mean looks like. No huge red flags for me with the 12z runs.

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Ok, I just looked at the GFS through the end of the run and the Euro through the end of the run. The GFS has some extremely cold air nearby in Canada and/or the northern tier of the US through the end of its run. At this point, I'm fine with that. The Euro from 192 on has a very nice -NAO and at 240 has virtually a classic 50/50 with a trough incoming from the west. I'm fine with that too. It'll be interesting to see what the EPS mean looks like. No huge red flags for me with the 12z runs.

And if we can time a high that can tap some of that -25C 850MB air, who cares if it doesn't make a big initial push south?

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