Jon Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I know it's just one day of runs but....I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This should probably be in banter, but I kind of want more eyes on it to maybe get an answer? The NCEP servers being slow, having to suspend the Parallel runs, etc... what is going on? Is it a DDoS, an actual system bug, a hack? Or is everything just quiet about it? I know they had to send their model runs to another server in Boulder, CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 YES Jon please can we have that verify?? I have a big favor to ask...Can some do a JAN and FEB, temps and precip for the county for 1978 please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I wonder if the CFS is dry because the cold is overwhelming. It could be since Arctic air is dry by nature. However, I'd welcome that opportunity. The very cold Feb. Of 1895 was like that (only 2" of rainfall ATL) and yet it produced three snowstorms there adding up to a whopping 11.6" there, the snowiest on record! Besides, a cold winter would mean a lot of excitement, regardless, though I'd strongly prefer we also get one or two nice winter storms. Larry, I'm with you. I'll take all the cold air I can get and settle up with moisture later. The sub-weekly 0z and 6z (0z was even wetter) offer some hope for moisture in January FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 YES Jon please can we have that verify?? I have a big favor to ask...Can some do a JAN and FEB, temps and precip for the county for 1978 please... First point, yes I'm crossing my fingers this CFS run is verbatim what happens! haha Bold part: Actually, I could probably do that if no one else does. Do you mean the months averaged or separate? and you mean anomalies? Edit: In comes Larry, told ya. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 YES Jon please can we have that verify?? I have a big favor to ask...Can some do a JAN and FEB, temps and precip for the county for 1978 please... Temps http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd71.226.78.41.353.11.15.38.prcp.png Precip http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd71.226.78.41.353.11.11.26.prcp.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I think, with HM especially discussing 79, we remember back to the awesome February we had that year in the Carolinas. We had one 5" snowstorm at the beginning of the month followed by a 10" snowstorm that snowed in the entire east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Per the GEFS the "good pattern" starts just after day 10 and breaks down day 13. The AO was essentially neutral through the run, maybe a hair positive. I don't know what to think after seeing that except shrug your shoulders. The good news is the EPO stays negative through the end of the run so just need the -AO to cooperate. The end of the GEFS looks very similar to week 4 of the weeklies. You still have ridging in the west and troughing in the east but the cold has retreated north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 In that 79 storm, totals ranged from 4-5" of IP in Atlanta and Columbia to 8-12" of snow across much of Western/Central NC and Northwest/Northern SC. The temperatures were also very cold with Columbia seeing heavy sleet at 17º. Further north, Charlotte had 12 degrees and heavy snow but real winner was Greensboro who was at an almost unheard 7º and heavy snow for much of that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It sounds like things keep looking good, but I really want something to track next week. The surprise snow this morning has me pumped, even if it wasn't much, because no one saw it coming. I just don't want this to turn into the case where we keep pushing things back. I want to see a snow accumulation map that is within 7 days for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It sounds like things keep looking good, but I really want something to track next week. The surprise snow this morning has me pumped, even if it wasn't much, because no one saw it coming. I just don't want this to turn into the case where we keep pushing things back. I want to see a snow accumulation map that is within 7 days for a change. I don't get where you're saying noone saw it coming. There's a whole thread dedicated to it. NAM had it the last few runs it just looked like QPF was so light most wouldn't see snow. Most didn't see snow and what was there was practically what the NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I don't get where you're saying noone saw it coming. There's a whole thread dedicated to it. NAM had it the last few runs it just looked like QPF was so light most wouldn't see snow. Most didn't see snow and what was there was practically what the NAM had. RAH even said they didn't forecast any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Temps http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd71.226.78.41.353.11.15.38.prcp.png Precip http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd71.226.78.41.353.11.11.26.prcp.png Awesome!! Thank you Larry! It sounds like JB thinks that 77 and 78 are the best analog years for what we have currently now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 EURO has reallllly slowed down with the Christmas EVE storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 EURO has reallllly slowed down with the Christmas EVE storm now.Slow enough for a wet Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 RAH even said they didn't forecast any snow. Yes because like this morning there was little point to going out on a limb to forecast it since it was so nominal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 EURO has reallllly slowed down with the Christmas EVE storm now. What it does at 5h really makes you wish it could dig a little more and get more of a negative tilt. By the way it looks like it might be setting up for fireworks around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 and the 12Z GFS really backed off of the 6Z (once it finally came through) .... Oh well, there's always the next run. :~) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 What it does at 5h really makes you wish it could dig a little more and get more of a negative tilt. By the way it looks like it might be setting up for fireworks around New Years. Yes, another big cutter, if we get something it will be a few days after NYE cutter. Still 10 or so days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Per the GEFS the "good pattern" starts just after day 10 and breaks down day 13. The AO was essentially neutral through the run, maybe a hair positive. I don't know what to think after seeing that except shrug your shoulders. The good news is the EPO stays negative through the end of the run so just need the -AO to cooperate. The end of the GEFS looks very similar to week 4 of the weeklies. You still have ridging in the west and troughing in the east but the cold has retreated north. Yeah the AO on the GEFS is crappy, but the 18z OP yesterday was horrible before christmas giving us a +AO throughout the period then diving on the 29th negative...not sure I can even trust the means in the LR. Specifically for the GEFS there's still a ton of spread in the individual members in the LR...lets hope it trends negative in future runs and hope the Canadian ensembles are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Yes, another big cutter, if we get something it will be a few days after NYE cutter. Still 10 or so days away... Not sure what Euro you're looking at. A few things, no way that energy cuts with a 1032 high coming around the lakes. Also it's doing it's typical bias of holding energy back in the SW. It splits it sending that energy to the lakes. Not happening with those parade of highs around. I love you're already calling it a cutter at 240 hours out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 What it does at 5h really makes you wish it could dig a little more and get more of a negative tilt. By the way it looks like it might be setting up for fireworks around New Years. I agree! It sounds like the para gfs has something there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Not sure what Euro you're looking at. A few things, no way that energy cuts with a 1032 high coming around the lakes. Also it's doing it's typical bias of holding energy back in the SW. It splits it sending that energy to the lakes. Not happening with those parade of highs around. I love you're already calling it a cutter at 240 hours out lol. It's going back to dumping the teough off west. I agree with you nothing will cut if those high placements are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Not sure what Euro you're looking at. A few things, no way that energy cuts with a 1032 high coming around the lakes. Also it's doing it's typical bias of holding energy back in the SW. It splits it sending that energy to the lakes. Not happening with those parade of highs around. I love you're already calling it a cutter at 240 hours out lol. 240 looks great it's worth staying up tonight for lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Not sure what Euro you're looking at. A few things, no way that energy cuts with a 1032 high coming around the lakes. Also it's doing it's typical bias of holding energy back in the SW. It splits it sending that energy to the lakes. Not happening with those parade of highs around. I love you're already calling it a cutter at 240 hours out lol. Trough east of HI... any energy dropping into the west is going to kick out quick.. Greenland block and 50/50 in place.. it's not going to cut. Then I see the PV building over E Canada after the new year. Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Trough east of HI... any energy dropping into the west is going to kick out quick.. Greenland block and 50/50 in place.. it's not going to cut. Then I see the PV building over E Canada after the new year. Looks good to me. The PV setting up near central Canada is a huge key to the SE cashing in. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Trough east of HI... any energy dropping into the west is going to kick out quick.. Greenland block and 50/50 in place.. it's not going to cut. Then I see the PV building over E Canada after the new year. Looks good to me. The PV setting up near central Canada is a huge key to the SE cashing in. JMO Pack is just having his yearly existential weather crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Ok, I just looked at the GFS through the end of the run and the Euro through the end of the run. The GFS has some extremely cold air nearby in Canada and/or the northern tier of the US through the end of its run. At this point, I'm fine with that. The Euro from 192 on has a very nice -NAO and at 240 has virtually a classic 50/50 with a trough incoming from the west. I'm fine with that too. It'll be interesting to see what the EPS mean looks like. No huge red flags for me with the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 teleconnection on the euro model says a big neg nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Ok, I just looked at the GFS through the end of the run and the Euro through the end of the run. The GFS has some extremely cold air nearby in Canada and/or the northern tier of the US through the end of its run. At this point, I'm fine with that. The Euro from 192 on has a very nice -NAO and at 240 has virtually a classic 50/50 with a trough incoming from the west. I'm fine with that too. It'll be interesting to see what the EPS mean looks like. No huge red flags for me with the 12z runs. And if we can time a high that can tap some of that -25C 850MB air, who cares if it doesn't make a big initial push south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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