burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I don't know if or when they plan to stop running the old gfs but I hope we can get an event in time to compare the old vs new gfs. Want to see how good it is with respect to temperature profiles in the low and mid levels during winter events. In the small amount of time i've been following the para run, There certainly is some noticeable differences in how it handles precipitation and I'm very curious to see how that translates with winter events. Something else that I noticed as well and this will be interesting when it switches over...but the LR has better resolution or attempts to anyways. GFS as we all know after 192 smooths everything out and looses resolution. The GFS PARA does not. Check out the maps below at 5h to see what I mean. GFS 18z GFS PARA 18z While the PARA will come out with just as wild solutions in the LR due to the higher resolution it just looks better. I could see a lot of people thinking it's better simply for that and saying that the GFS was crap...even though they both do crazy things in the LR. We shall see, just found it interesting and since most can't see the LR they probably weren't aware of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So it the past 36 hours we went from torch, to cutters to icebox! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So it the past 36 hours we went from torch, to cutters to icebox! It would appear so. One thing I like is that before the 00z and 6z run of yesterday models were agreeing a pattern change was coming...it could be now they are finally locking on to the finer details. I do still think we need to get this Christmas storm out of here first. If models are still showing it come Thursday or Friday....game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Much appreciated Chris! Absolutely!! Thank yall for liking the page and videos https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Didn't yall get the memo? Burger controls the models now...hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It would appear so. One thing I like is that before the 00z and 6z run of yesterday models were agreeing a pattern change was coming...it could be now they are finally locking on to the finer details. I do still think we need to get this Christmas storm out of here first. If models are still showing it come Thursday or Friday....game on!I still think the mjo forecast was throwing a wrench in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Let's hope it's for real. Some models, like the JMA, are not as kind. But it is surely a good step in 3 overall runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Something else that I noticed as well and this will be interesting when it switches over...but the LR has better resolution or attempts to anyways. GFS as we all know after 192 smooths everything out and looses resolution. The GFS PARA does not. Check out the maps below at 5h to see what I mean. GFS 18z GFS PARA 18z While the PARA will come out with just as wild solutions in the LR due to the higher resolution it just looks better. I could see a lot of people thinking it's better simply for that and saying that the GFS was crap...even though they both do crazy things in the LR. We shall see, just found it interesting and since most can't see the LR they probably weren't aware of that. Yeah the para from what I understand has better resolution throughout the entire run even in the LR, although not as high after 192, it's still almost double as high as the current gfs after 192...trying to make our own Euro except running it 4x daily (which could be adding to the scrutiny, less data ingesting for 4 runs vs 00z/12z only and multiple times it can be incorrect, para could still roll out on time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Split vortex at 276... -NAO in place... The cold pattern reloads. Yep complete split but it does not last that long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 With this SE mess - who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I would suspect if the GFS is correct that you don't get a big "warm up". Probably temps modulate by a little bit which allows for storms to sneak in. Wouldn't be surprised to see some southern sliders that hit GA and SC big with this setup. It's what I look for! Get that rain underneath, then look for the cold. I've been in drizzle and sporadic rain for two days now, with lots of thunder last night. This kind of pattern always bodes well for me. And sure enough looks like some cold is being attracted by the rain pheromones T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yep complete split but it does not last that longDon't need forever, just long enough! Runs today look great! Can't wait till 0z to see if u get a 3 peat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I don't know if or when they plan to stop running the old gfs but I hope we can get an event in time to compare the old vs new gfs. Want to see how good it is with respect to temperature profiles in the low and mid levels during winter events. In the small amount of time i've been following the para run, There certainly is some noticeable differences in how it handles precipitation and I'm very curious to see how that translates with winter events. According to NOAA, the parallel GFS has a notably warmer PBL than the older version, this problem may not manifest itself until we're faced w/ a CAD event. It'll also be interesting to see how the Parallel GFS handles tropical cyclones, the cooler mid-levels may help reduce the number of ghost storms we're so accustomed to seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Very impressive strat maps on the 18z GFS.Goodness. Entire strat split from 1mb to 100mb. Don't know if its right but its pretty,very pretty. Continue on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 With this SE mess - who knows.... 1.gif Almost a wall of LP stretching the Miss. river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Almost a wall of LP stretching the Miss. river CaryWx! How's it going? Long time, no post. Magnificent turn-around today, so you're back just in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Very impressive strat maps on the 18z GFS.Goodness. Entire strat split from 1mb to 100mb. Don't know if its right but its pretty,very pretty. Continue on. Best one I've seen in a long time. The warming is beginning over N Asia as we speak... here are the 10mb maps By 120 hrs the warming begins to spread up and out By 240 hrs the vortex has begun to split in response to the SSW By the end of the 18z run at 384 hrs, the vortex is completely split and wave-2 pattern has commenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Great post, Wow. D10 looks just like the 12z euro. I had to mentally extrapolate the euro and the gfs looks just like my imagination. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Check please????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Best one I've seen in a long time. The warming is beginning over N Asia as we speak... here are the 10mb maps By 120 hrs the warming begins to spread up and out By 240 hrs the vortex has begun to split in response to the SSW By the end of the 18z run at 384 hrs, the vortex is completely split and wave-2 pattern has commenced. so cool, thanks wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yep complete split but it does not last that long Doesn't last long... it doesn't completely split until 384 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Doesn't last long... it doesn't completely split until 384 on the GFS. He was looking at the 500mb map I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 He was looking at the 500mb map I think Look at the temps get nuked at 1mb by day 7 then to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Check please????? seems like if we get the check now we get a bonus gift card for next time, very good trends indeed. People have been saying wait for this weeks systems to get thru and we'd have a better idea. Very excited to see what happens on the models once everything gets OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 CaryWx! How's it going? Long time, no post. Magnificent turn-around today, so you're back just in time. Hi Cold! Back for the high season as usual. Looking forward to some gratuitous snow and cold weather. Think we're onto something but it will be in 2015. You and packbacker man! Of course tempered with Widre and a smattering of Brick make for a perfect Holiday season....and the pros are keeping us honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Hi Cold! Back for the high season as usual. Looking forward to some gratuitous snow and cold weather. Think we're onto something but it will be in 2015. You and packbacker man! Of course tempered with Widre and a smattering of Brick make for a perfect Holiday season....and the pros are keeping us honest. Yeah, if you believe the Atari GFS, there's a chance starting about 120 and another chance at around 216 or so. I didn't check the Sega though and I didn't look at the 18z either. Sounds like the general pattern is good though. Hopefully, the overnights will keep the trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Out to 114 on the GFS. Don't think it's going to be crazy like the 18z but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I like the look so far though hr120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The ridge is much more taller this run...impressive early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I like the look so far though hr120 The ridge is much more taller this run...impressive early. Indeed....now the PV is starting to drop at 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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