LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Epic cold incoming but where is the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z doesn't get it done but it was close. It's cold enough @186 that you have snow associated with an arctic front in NC....WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z doesn't get it done but it was close. It's cold enough @186 that you have snow associated with an arctic front in NC....WOW. I agree, that wasn't too far off from an event. Well then, how about that steps in the right direction.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nice high-ratio snow with -10C 850s rolling through NC with the arctic front at D8. Not much, but interesting. There's many possibilities for snow with this setup. -10C 850s make it all the way down to Waycross after the front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 -20c 850's over n. Ga at 204. that's really cold for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS has -24 deg C at 850mb in northern Arkansas at hr189 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wow mega cold reaching N KY @ hr 192, -24 line down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Another positive run I would say in the medium range for the GFS. It gets very cold for sure with th hammer being dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z puts Jacksonville FL in sub freezing temps or durn close to it. Also at 5h it was very close to something big for the SE. PARA looks like it's primed for a big storm out to 189. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I like the way the pattern reloads after a brief relaxation from the pv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z puts Jacksonville FL in sub freezing temps or durn close to it. Also at 5h it was very close to something big for the SE. PARA looks like it's primed for a big storm out to 189. PV was just making its way into the hudson at 216....18z could have a storm near the end of the run as the cold reloads unless you have it finished already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The Para looks primed to explode. Moisture building in the Gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I like the way the pattern reloads after a brief relaxation from the pv. I saw that at after the epic cold it warms up and then back to the freezer at 288. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z GFS has a reloading pattern in the LR. Love that look. Like last year this allows for storms to sneak in and not totally get suppressed. If we get that look it will be a rocking first half of Jan for the east coast. PARA has a big CAD storm for New Years...might be a little too warm. Doesn't do much with the PV on this run....but also keeps that cutoff in the SW spinning way to long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Split vortex at 276... -NAO in place... The cold pattern reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 get that NYD storm to form a 50/50 and get a slight block at that time and it would be wild in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z GFS has a reloading pattern in the LR. Love that look. Like last year this allows for storms to sneak in and not totally get suppressed. If we get that look it will be a rocking first half of Jan for the east coast. PARA has a big CAD storm for New Years...might be a little too warm. Doesn't do much with the PV on this run....but also keeps that cutoff in the SW spinning way to long. Gotta love that 1052 mb HP in NW Kansas at hr 186 on the Para... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 HM says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ^ Big -EPO too, Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 PARA starts off as ZR then moves to rain for New Years. Personally I would throw it out since it looks like garbage at 5h....I guess that could happen but it's very unlikely. With the setup it would either be a Miller B....or that energy would come out much sooner and we would have a snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I know Marietta will refuse to see it but this another beautiful run by the GFS. Come on now. Stop trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I saw that at after the epic cold it warms up and then back to the freezer at 288.yeah that would be the way to go. Like burger said a lot like last year's pattern. And as WOW alluded to if we can get a negative NAO then wow we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 yeah that would be the way to go. Like burger said a lot like last year's pattern. And as WOW alluded to if we can get a negative NAO then wow we would b in business. I'm going to temper my expectations on that. We'll have to see if we can get more model support. GFS has looked a little too good to be true today....but it's uncanny how similar it is to last year. I actually read through a lot of posts last year and many thought winter cancel around Christmas and even up into the 10th....then all of the sudden like today models started going nuts bringing cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Beautiful +PNA by 360, I'm not sure it breaks down at all...that break down of the ridge looked funky anyway. We could start trending to a +PNA/-NAO pattern in the LR...those indices could literally flip in the next few days. However at this time nothing to keep the PV locked, goes under hudson and slides out E over greenland...we need that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Does the SSW actually verify and become reality?? Will the unicorn actually be wrangled? lol. How did we go from no cold concerns, to suppression worries in one day? Ah, the joys of weeniedom!! If we keep the GFS/EURO in tune on the vortex split for another two runs or so it'll have my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 PARA starts off as ZR then moves to rain for New Years. Personally I would throw it out since it looks like garbage at 5h....I guess that could happen but it's very unlikely. With the setup it would either be a Miller B....or that energy would come out much sooner and we would have a snow storm. I don't know if or when they plan to stop running the old gfs but I hope we can get an event in time to compare the old vs new gfs. Want to see how good it is with respect to temperature profiles in the low and mid levels during winter events. In the small amount of time i've been following the para run, There certainly is some noticeable differences in how it handles precipitation and I'm very curious to see how that translates with winter events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I would suspect if the GFS is correct that you don't get a big "warm up". Probably temps modulate by a little bit which allows for storms to sneak in. Wouldn't be surprised to see some southern sliders that hit GA and SC big with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'm going to temper my expectations on that. We'll have to see if we can get more model support. GFS has looked a little too good to be true today....but it's uncanny how similar it is to last year. I actually read through a lot of posts last year and many thought winter cancel around Christmas and even up into the 10th....then all of the sudden like today models started going nuts bringing cold air. I'm going to temper my expectations on that. We'll have to see if we can get more model support. GFS has looked a little too good to be true today....but it's uncanny how similar it is to last year. I actually read through a lot of posts last year and many thought winter cancel around Christmas and even up into the 10th....then all of the sudden like today models started going nuts bringing cold air. exactly burger. Last year had a cold November then mild December which made for a gruelling month then the middle to the end of January the hammer dropped. Could that happen again thus year? Maybe but today's trends are very encouraging and hey most of the changes are inside 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Does the SSW actually verify and become reality?? Will the unicorn actually be wrangled? lol. How did we go from no cold concerns, to suppression worries in one day? Ah, the joys of weeniedom!! If we keep the GFS/EURO in tune on the vortex split for another two runs or so it'll have my attention. Euro has been advertising the PV split for a while now, last time I remember posting about it was the 19th or maybe before that...it's just woken up, along with the GFS. With the SSW forecasts and the trends as of late, not sure what else one would need other than a fantasy snowstorm to have proof this pattern change is capable of producing but to me, it already is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I don't know if or when they plan to stop running the old gfs but I hope we can get an event in time to compare the old vs new gfs. Want to see how good it is with respect to temperature profiles in the low and mid levels during winter events. In the small amount of time i've been following the para run, There certainly is some noticeable differences in how it handles precipitation elements and I'm very curious to see how that translates with winter events. Having watched it the last few days it does seem to pick up on temp profiles better. For instance it had a better handle on those highs coming into Montana and the Dakotas....you could clearly see on the PARA where it was picking up on the cold air associated with those pushing east and south. GFS seem to not even notice....I'm talking about 140+ hours out though. It also from what I've seen picks up much better on CAD WRT to temps. There are some good things about it....but I think due to the high resolution and a different algorithm with data it spits out a solution the LR that tends to look more funky than the GFS....but Euro does the same thing a lot. We just tend to forget it since it does well in the 4-7 range. It's looking more and more like it will suffer from the same bias the Euro does of holding back energy in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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