FallsLake Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well that was an interesting run of the Euro. Not only did it move to the GFS it went a step beyond and put the entire east into the ice box. The ridging in the west was great. This would be dry cold verbatim as it would crush anything. The last few years we've done well with clippers. I'll take the cold and hope for some small events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 At 240, looks like a reloading with the Aleutian low moving back in with the PV already over Hudson Bay. I've totally in love with this run. Scandinavian block in place.. may trend back into the arctic depending on how much the PV digs farther south. Curious to see the strat. maps... Agree. I guess after seeing so many runs of the Euro that beat the Alaskan block down quickly with the firehose in the Pacific, I was gun shy and afraid we were headed back down that path again. All in all, a very nice run of the Euro, though I don't really want cold and dry, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 At 240, looks like a reloading with the Aleutian low moving back in with the PV already over Hudson Bay. I've totally in love with this run. Scandinavian block in place.. may trend back into the arctic depending on how much the PV digs farther south. Curious to see the strat. maps... HM tweeting about the 12z Euro/stratosphere run. The strat maps I have wont update until tonight. Hopefully WSI tweets it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 With all the model run to run inconsistencies lately it really does seem like as someone recently pointed out a Dr Jekyll Mr Hyde scenario with all options still on the table. Yes I like the trends, but to be honest it's hard to trust anything the models are showing outside of about 5 days right now which could lead to a unexpected surprise at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 1939-40 and similar winters still not off the table, despite Don. S.'s and DT's worries, if you believe the 12Z GFS/Euro operational runs. But we could sure use a -AO/-NAO to help out. In my years of following models, the change from 0Z yesterday to 12Z today for days 6-10+ is about as big as I can ever remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 HM tweeting about the 12z Euro/stratosphere run. The strat maps I have wont update until tonight. Hopefully WSI tweets it out.What is he saying specifically for this run? Hasn't it been showing a possible SSW event for a while now? Is it warmer or positioned differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 What is he saying specifically for this run? Hasn't it been showing a possible SSW event for a while now? Is it warmer or positioned differently? @antmasiello: ECMWF has the most impressive split yet in strat. Wow @antmasiello: @antmasiello so wave breaking over Europe sends cold into Mediterranean while high pressures build from Iceland to the Urals day 4-7. Wave2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Gefs look improved past day ten. Epo stays negative with small but positive height anomalies over the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Will be interesting to hear about the EPS today. Hope it also is improved..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Gefs look improved past day ten. Epo stays negative with small but positive height anomalies over the Arctic. Yes, and notice no more trough hanging back over the SW. Trough east of HI = no SW trough, no SE ridge Lo and behold, the models flipped with the SE ridge crushed into submission. Teleconnections are awesome. If you have a model center subscription you can see the trend loop: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=12z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NH&run_hour=168&loop=trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just now looking at the Euro on my cell phone... -18 to -20 C anomalies at 850mb super deep into the SE on 12/31 AM, just wow! It would be hard to deny the cold now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The 12z EPS looks great through D10. It's not out past there yet. Stronger west coast ridge compared to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don't get too excited guys...it'll be another cliff dive tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The control run is insane. -18C-(-20C) 850 anomalies at D9. N GA is at -21C. Of course, it's the control run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Meanwhile, a strong tornado on the ground near Columbia, MS, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yes, and notice no more trough hanging back over the SW. Trough east of HI = no SW trough, no SE ridge Lo and behold, the models flipped with the SE ridge crushed into submission. Teleconnections are awesome. If you have a model center subscription you can see the trend loop: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=12z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NH&run_hour=168&loop=trend That's a great tool (trend loop) and shows what you speak of clearly...... trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We have a large damaging tornado moving through S MS folks, someone start a thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well, lets talk models and trends, right? Shoutouts galore today. LOL Getting ready to go back into work, and anticipating it to be a long nice with the potential for SVR weather, but wanted to cut a video on my thoughts/ideas and stuff before then for y'all. Enjoy! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Notable shifting on the euro d11-15 beyond the big cold shot. -PNA look is quickly vanishing (+pna showing up late). SE ridge not as prevalent. Higher heights showing up directly over the pole late in the run. IMO- I'm fairly confident that the upcoming cold period will last longer than currently being advertised. If the PV wobbles around hudson we will have a variable pattern of good cold pushes, short lived return flow warm ups and repeat. I'm also not seeing a nasty +AO. Maybe numerically it's not good but as far as height patterns go, I don't see it as a big net negative at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Higher heights over the Arctic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I have a meteorology question. Many people have attributed the warm winter of '11-'12, and some of the warmth this December to a howling Pacific jet. In the case, if the jet starts to slow down near the Pacific Coast or over the Western US, wouldn't this lead to a pile up of air in the upper atmosphere, and raise heights? I'm still a bit fuzzy on the dynamics of jet streams and jet streaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well, lets talk models and trends, right? Shoutouts galore today. LOL Getting ready to go back into work, and anticipating it to be a long nice with the potential for SVR weather, but wanted to cut a video on my thoughts/ideas and stuff before then for y'all. Enjoy! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Much appreciated Chris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 @antmasiello: ECMWF has the most impressive split yet in strat. Wow @antmasiello: @antmasiello so wave breaking over Europe sends cold into Mediterranean while high pressures build from Iceland to the Urals day 4-7. Wave2! Thanks...yep after looking at it, classic PV split at 50hPa centered over the hudson at 240hrs....last run had it more east and weaker not really helping us out. Classic SSW/PV split event it looks like to me. If you have WxBell it's here, Ryan Maue just released it this evening. My guess is he's confident it will get some traffic, haha. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yecmwf_strat.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS is out to 108, here comes some more info.... 120 : GA is getting doused in rain, here is our el nino. 126 : NC getting dumped on now - rain 129 : very wet system preceding the one that has everyone's attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z is bringing the hammer down @171 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Odd at 5h you would think around the 165 - 174 mark there would be more moisture around the southeast. Huge cold dropping in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z is bringing the hammer down @171 Cold is pressing south, really cold regardless of what happens. 1040 high -30 850's over MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I know Marietta will refuse to see it but this another beautiful run by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Cold is pressing south, really cold regardless of what happens. Well you proved me wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 That right there is almost identical of a look to Jan 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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