Webberweather53 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 IMO Don hasn't done anything other than highlight what the models are showing as a possibility and bringing out those that are in the process of cancelling winter. Is it possible for a winter of warmth to happen..YES.....is it possible for winter to give us at least one (if not more) chances of a winter wonderland.....YES. The point is, everything we are looking at says it should be a great winter, but for whatever reason the atmosphere is acting more Nina like than Nino at the moment. From Don...... The latest teleconnection forecasts offer only more misery. Forecasts for a deeply negative EPO have been withdrawn almost as suddenly as they had first appeared. The PNA is now forecast to creep into negative territory. What’s that immense tower in the distance? It dwarfs even the world’s tallest structure. Look closer. That’s the latest GFS ensemble forecast for the Arctic Oscillation. One member even takes the AO toward +5 during the first week in January. He would be much better off & even more intelligible if he laid off the models & tried incorporating a bit more organic forecasting into his ideas, but his posts are still great nonetheless.... The shift in equatorial forcing into the eastern hemisphere, the oncoming upwelling intraseasonal phase of the Oceanic KW & the overall lower frequency warming of the Indian Ocean along w/ an IOD heading into negative territory are all to blame for the Nina-like atmospheric response... The only favorable signal for the El Nino in the southern hemisphere specifically appears to be the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (an eastward propagating wave (which goes against the flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar current) w/ a #2 signal expressed in part by SSTs anomalies where the strongest anomalies are found usually near 50-60S, w/ a spectral peak in it's half cycle (full cycle of ACW is 8-9 years) that's approximately in phase w/ the ENSO index (~ 4 years). Southern hemisphere SST anomalies for the dominant EOF of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave mapped every 6 months is shown below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just to temper enthusiasm this is one run of one model. We need to see some of the other models to jump on board as well. GFS PARA not as crazy with the cold but it doesn't look bad either out to 156. PV isn't as insane. Yeah The run to run differences are pretty big. I wish I shared the enthusiasm some are showing but considering how the major players keep shifting hundreds of miles... (or reappearing and disappearing altogether) from one run to the next...it makes it rather difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah The run to run differences are pretty big. I wish I shared the enthusiasm some are showing but considering how the major players keep shifting hundreds of miles... (or reappearing and disappearing altogether) from one run to the next...it makes it rather difficult. You missed a prime Glenn burns moment last week. Go Panthers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'll have to nail down the specific numerical teleconnection anomalies, but it's fairly clear from looking @ the 500mb patterns preceding large winter storms in the southern US, the EPO appears to contribute the largest amount of variance in the set-ups leading up to wintry weather in the southern tier, whereas the AO/NAO appears to bear less significance. You don't necessarily need a -NAO/AO (as shown by the Feb 1973 & Dec 1989 events) to have a major winter storm engulf the south. In looking @ some of the patterns leading up to some of the most historic storms, by & large, the primary ingredient you certainly is need undercutting in the southern branch of the jet underneath an anomalous ridge in & around Alaska & extreme northwestern North America (-EPO) and a subsequent low pressure gyre over eastern North America/southern Canada to interact w/ any incoming system (which aside from the MJO operating on relatively smaller timescales can be invigorated seasonally-interannually by certain PDO, ENSO, & QBO states). IMO, if you don't block up the flow over the northeastern Pacific & force energy to focus into the subtropical jet (-EPO) , your chances of seeing a robust winter storm throughout much of the southern tier dwindle considerably. That's not going to be the case however as we close in on early January... Dec 8-10 1958 Feb 6-8 1973 Feb 26-28 1980 Jan 2-4 1988 Dec 19-21 1989 Dec 1-3 2002 Jan 26-28 2010 Jan 6-8 2011 Even last year, the antecedent pattern ahed of the overrunning event from about Feb 11-14 exhibited similar signatures w/ blocking over the North-central Pacific encouraging the southern branch to cut underneath & troughing downstream in the eastern US & southern Canada, although the anomalous Alaskan ridge is shifted a bit to the east of the other aforementioned storms & their associated patterns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOL its looking good through hour 108, IMO THat evergy kicker that was over the Pac nw, now not on the GFS is there, but that looks like its going to kick more EAST and not down in the pac SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think this run of the euro is going to look much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro day 6 event is much further north than its 0z run, tracks SLP into OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12Z Euro OMG part 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro is a def. step in the right direction overall. @156 cold air is incoming just gotta get some energy out west to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ridging in the west is better though, should bode well for any day 8+ potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yes seems like the euro is falling in line with the 12z gfs to a point. I like that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 @174 Euro is dropping major cold into the east. Big step and close to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro dropping the PV WAY south....someone is going to be in the icebox after 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 where do we sign up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 where do we sign up? Who knows what tomorrow will bring but good lord what a reversal on the models....or was it? GFS had this look for runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro following suit with a frigid start to January. What a difference a couple of days make. Deja vu to last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 What trough at hour 192 and looks like another piece coming down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro following suit with a frigid start to January. What a difference a couple of days make. Deja vu to last January. Thinking the exact same thing. Very close to the same look. PV comes down almost to TN on this run! Only thing I don't like is that everything will be suppression city. We'll need a stout clipper to work out winter weather but we can worry about that as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The ridge on the Euro really takes a beating between 168 and 192. That won't be good for a sustained cold snap, unfortunately. Should warm quickly beyond 200 if that's right. I meant 240, beyond day 10........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 This is a great look. I wonder if a SSW event is getting sniffed out here? What I was thinking. The run to run on the Euro has been head scratching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 This is a great look. I wonder if a SSW event is getting sniffed out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The ridge on the Euro really takes a beating between 168 and 192. That won't be good for a sustained cold snap, unfortunately. Should warm quickly beyond 200 if that's right. I meant 240, beyond day 10........... @210 looks like the PV might drop again this time more centered on the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well that was an interesting run of the Euro. Not only did it move to the GFS it went a step beyond and put the entire east into the ice box. The ridging in the west was great. This would be dry cold verbatim as it would crush anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I can't see 240 on the Euro yet, but at 216, wow. That's cold right there. What a turn-around today! Let's hope this holds. I looked at the GFS too. Not sure how you couldn't like that pattern. There's a winter storm threat at 120 or so and another at 216. There's more beyond that too. Not worried at all about suppression yet. Great runs today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 240 had Webber's look at 5h to me before a classic snowstorm interestingly enough and it looked like fun games might begin....too bad it's at 240. Great runs today so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 A strong block just NW of Greenland just locks in the trough, plus the +PNA/-EPO we go polar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I can't see 240 on the Euro yet, but at 216, wow. That's cold right there. What a turn-around today! Let's hope this holds. I looked at the GFS too. Not sure how you couldn't like that pattern. There's a winter storm threat at 120 or so and another at 216. There's more beyond that too. Not worried at all about suppression yet. Great runs today! Something about 1000mb pressure in the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 At 240, looks like a reloading with the Aleutian low moving back in with the PV already over Hudson Bay. I've totally in love with this run. Scandinavian block in place.. may trend back into the arctic depending on how much the PV digs farther south. Curious to see the strat. maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 At 240, looks like a reloading with the Aleutian low moving back in with the PV already over Hudson Bay. I've totally in love with this run. Gimmie gimmie gimmie....soon as it relaxes to reload we jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Something about 1000mb pressure in the Dakotas. Lol! It's much too far northwest to matter. With confluence in SE Canada, we might start seeing a high pressure somewhere in the NE on future runs...unless of course they go back to the trough west look overnight, which is entirely possible I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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