burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Button the hatches boys @180 that PV is incoming and energy should start moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 What a great look for the medium range on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 That PV dropping and it's placement is going to be crucial. We'll see if any other models pick up on it. GFS PARA is out to 138 and it doesn't look as good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 wasn't Jan 2013 very warm ? Last year in Jan. we had some of the coldest weather we've had in a very long time. Low of like 6 in CLT....unless I'm confusing it with Feb. January of 2014 (the most recent) was the ice box. ***EDIT*** I see I have once again failed to read the entire thread before answering. I am ashamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Hr 144-150 on GFS look very interesting for this weekend with decent blocking in place. Could see some flakes across the northern part of NC as the system pulls out if 12z were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS was bonkers today. If you can't get excited with that look you might not have a pulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 @216 snow storm for the south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Snow incoming for the SE/NC after 204....not sure if it has a bomb coming but it's close to one, just like last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'll take this solution please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Loving this run.. The GFS has been trying for the past 3 runs and is now showing a look we all want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 lol of course Don S. makes that post and the GFS goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Hows the para for the first event? the 138-150 one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 @216 snow storm for the south! the resolution is really hurting the evolution of this storm, plenty of energy and moisture and the cold is in place, yet it looks funky and still gives us snow. I can't wait until we get inside 200hrs with the GFS and the Euro or GFS or GGEM, some model is going to spit out a fantasy bomb soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just to temper enthusiasm this is one run of one model. We need to see some of the other models to jump on board as well. GFS PARA not as crazy with the cold but it doesn't look bad either out to 156. PV isn't as insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wow what a run from the GFS and its all inside 240 hours also! May change next run but wow pretty ideal for 2/3 of the country in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Hows the para for the first event? the 138-150 one? Meh, not great for the SE. Good hit for PA and parts of upstate NY. It's sort of like the OP GFS but floats further north due to that PV not being as pronounced in central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 WOW, who kidnapped the GFS today??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 the resolution is really hurting the evolution of this storm, plenty of energy and moisture and the cold is in place, yet it looks funky and still gives us snow. I can't wait until we get inside 200hrs with the GFS and the Euro or GFS or GGEM, some model is going to spit out a fantasy bomb soon. GFS PARA might end up being it. PV pinches off a lobe which is in MT with energy looking like it might be heading east. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ummm....Burger, you get a hold of the GFS this morning and make it a perfect model? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ummm....Burger, you get a hold of the GFS this morning and make it a perfect model? LOL It's North Korea...they hacked it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Finally have something good inside 10 days! Just have to see if it keeps up and the other models follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS PARA is like, "I hope you like cutoff lows spinning around the baja of California for days". Not a bad look surface wise but no kicker to force that energy west. Also not nearly as crazy cold as the GFS had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS PARA is like, "I hope you like cutoff lows spinning around the baja of California for days". Not a bad look surface wise but no kicker to force that energy west. Also not nearly as crazy cold as the GFS had. Which is polar opposite of what it was showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's North Korea...they hacked it! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Which is polar opposite of what it was showing Mysteriously starts moving as soon as the cold air starts to leave . Model madness continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 To clear up confusion if Don S is throwing in the towel for winter. Here is what he posted a few minutes ago. Just so there's no confusion, today's lengthy post does not mean that I have given up on winter. I have not thrown in the towel. Although, I think there's some possibility of a warm winter (especially if the AO goes strongly positive and blocking doesn't develop), it's too soon for me to believe that's the most likely outcome. I believe odds still favor a colder than normal January and February, though there will likely be some milder periods. Even the AO forecasts have been very volatile in recent days, so one shouldn't have high confidence in the current one. In terms of the long-awaited pattern change, the 12z GFS still shows a colder pattern for December 28 through at least much of the first week in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Is the PARA GFS linked anywhere off the NCEP site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Is the PARA GFS linked anywhere off the NCEP site? Here ya go http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Here ya go http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ Yes, the images will say "GFS" etc.. but it's the Upgrade version as long as the domain says: "mageval" in the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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