Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II

[packbacker]

Exactly what I was trying to point out earlier, often this year we have seen this time frame trend SE, now with an arctic airmass nearby it could get interesting

Hard to argue, very progressive flow, GFS may handle this the best.

[Cold Rain]

Surprised nobody mentioned the 6z GFS. It has a substantially colder look that persists through the LR. There are several opportunities for winter wx in the SE, unless you want to take every frame of the model literally. The general pattern would support overrunning and CAD events. I don't see a signal for a huge storm, but there is a lot of cold air available to be tapped, and the southern stream is active.

I would be willing to bet that for the next 15-30 days, any winter weather we get, we won't start tracking it until 3-4 days out.

[Cold Rain]

Serious question, where is the high for the damming signature on that map? Is it the 1049 MB in MT, I don't see one on the map in the NE or Canada?

I would't take that map too literally yet. I haven't see a 500 mb map, but there are plenty of northern stream waves in the flow, moving through Canada. If one moves through prior to the precipitation moving in (which is definitely possible), it could create enough confluence in its wake to allow high pressure to build in and aid in damming. That's not a stretch at all.

[Bob Chill]

Nice shift d9-11 on the euro ens. Makes one think of last year for multiple reasons. If the post cold warm up starts getting pushed back in time it would hardly surprise me.

Starting to see higher heights fill the Russian side of the polar region late in the runs. Keep an eye on the ens mean pv position in Canada in the long range. If it starts ticking south then it's possibly a signal of warm-up cancel.

Lastly, a big -epo ridge breakdown is typically rushed on the models. Any breakdown beyond d10 is suspect. Personally, I have no idea where we are headed for the first half of Jan. The next 10 days look nothing like a Nino. Do we revert back to a more Nino type of lw pattern during Jan? Weird winter so far.

[msuwx]

Serious question, where is the high for the damming signature on that map? Is it the 1049 MB in MT, I don't see one on the map in the NE or Canada?

 

 

Correct, big high coming down over NW US, spilling east.

Yep, somewhat of the classic 'banana high' configuration.

[metwannabe]

Please don't let brick read Don S post in the main thread. Talk about a shot to the heart

Brick might cry....... Literally

[burgertime]

Please don't let brick read Don S post in the main thread. Talk about a shot to the heart

Brick might cry....... Literally

 

To quote Kramer...."yikes". If we get that AO going strongly positive well we're screwed for the most part. That's the biggest factor for me. So far models haven't been closing the book just yet. Like I said yesterday though if you go through and read the Jan. discussion from last year there are some similarities though last year wasn't an El Nino. 

[Brick Tamland]

Please don't let brick read Don S post in the main thread. Talk about a shot to the heart

Brick might cry....... Literally

 

I read it. It doesn't bother me. The way things are going now, no one can tell what is going to happen past 10 days, maybe even 7. And things can change here on a dime. 

[buckeyefan1]

It's sad when you giggle and cry at the same time     Well written Don   

A Winter Nightmare from the Past

 

For the past seven days, a growing amount of light has swept across Menorahs everywhere. For some snow lovers, this growing light perhaps symbolized what the ensembles and operational guidance had been promising: a big pattern change ahead with numerous snowfall opportunities.

 

Now, as Hanukkah is concluding and Christmas lies just ahead, a large part of the East will be swept with moderate to heavy rains, gusty winds, and unseasonably mild temperatures. Dreams of a white Christmas will be washed away by the rain, not to mention the tears of heartbroken snow geese in the face of this cruel warmth.

 

But there is even worse. The latest teleconnection forecasts offer only more misery. Forecasts for a deeply negative EPO have been withdrawn almost as suddenly as they had first appeared. The PNA is now forecast to creep into negative territory.

 

What’s that immense tower in the distance? It dwarfs even the world’s tallest structure. Look closer. That’s the latest GFS ensemble forecast for the Arctic Oscillation. One member even takes the AO toward +5 during the first week in January.

 

 

 

Perhaps, the vendors can offer some relief. Unfortunately, little is to be found there. DT has now ominously highlighted the strongly negative QBO (though he has not written off the winter). JB has moved from discussions of coming cold and deep snows, skipping the changing climate, straight to the “Beast of Bakersfield.”

 

While many at AmericanWx may not be old enough to recall it, there once was an El Niño winter that started bold and cold in November. It did so as the QBO was falling steadily. Surely, festive scenes of sleigh rides, skiing, and snowmobiling, not to mention snow-clogged streets and snow-covered fences lay just ahead.

 

At least that’s what many might have thought. But then, December witnessed a dramatic turnaround. December was as warm as November was cold.

 

 

Was this the end?

 

In January, the QBO continued to fall. The El Niño persisted. A 13-day period of blockiness managed to develop, but the blocking was not very severe. Afterward, the AO returned to its predominantly positive state.

 

Once the book was closed on meteorological winter, it proved to be a book snow lovers wished had never been written. Where was Sony Pictures to pull that book prematurely? In the end, December had foretold the rest of the winter story with stunning prescience. January and February were defined by continued widespread warmth.

 

 

 

As the calendar advanced toward spring, winter finally tried to awaken from its all too long slumber. Days were now growing longer and winter’s opportunities were dwindling fast. The East Coast witnessed cold anomalies and above normal March snowfall. But that late and regionally-limited rally could not salvage what had once appeared to have been a promising winter back in November. For those who are interested, that winter was 1991-92.

 

Are we in the early stages of a replay of this nightmare? Certainly, the latest AO forecasts are extremely frightening. For now, though, it’s still a little premature to make that call and I’m not yet ready to give up on the still young winter of 2014-15. But one can no longer deny the reality that a warm winter has now rudely barged into the realm of possibility. Still, the El Niño this time around is weaker than it was in 1991-92. Perhaps, that detail will prove crucial in the longer-run.

 

To all, enjoy the rest of Hanukkah, have a great Christmas and New Year.

[mackerel_sky]

Sounds like he was talking about winter of 2012/2012!

[Southern Track]

Lol. Yeah I cringed when I opened the CPC page to check out the forecasts today. That AO is.....boy.

[SnowNiner]

I really thought the +PDO and SST anomolies this year offered great, unique signs.....I guess I'm still holding out hope for late January and Feb.  But my enthusiasm is definitely waning.  I know one thing, if this DJF turns out to be overall warm, I'll never read a winter outlook again.  They'll be right up there with hurricane season outlooks in my mind; worthless. 

[rduwx]

It's sad when you giggle and cry at the same time     Well written Don  

 

Ouch!  If there is one person you really want to hear positive things from, it's Don S.  This one really hurts...LOL!

[Cold Rain]

So somebody tell me, why is that notion any more likely to verify than the colder one that was put forth earlier? Why is a warm rest of the winter more likely now than a cold one? Because of some models that have shown an amazing propensity to change direction every few days?

[Brick Tamland]

So somebody tell me, why is that notion any more likely to verify than the colder one that was put forth earlier? Why is a warm rest of the winter more likely now than a cold one? Because of some models that have shown an amazing propensity to change direction every few days?

 

That's what I was thinking, too. It changes all the time. No reason to get worried about it until it actually does it. And even then, it could always change back. I would love to have a lot of snow events, but even if we just get one or two really good ones, that is fine. The Carolina Crusher we had back in 2000 came after temps were in the 70s just a week before. Things can change here fast and go from one extreme to the other in winter. 

[Southern Track]

Anyone know if it's possible to see the QBO progression so far through December?

[burgertime]

So somebody tell me, why is that notion any more likely to verify than the colder one that was put forth earlier? Why is a warm rest of the winter more likely now than a cold one? Because of some models that have shown an amazing propensity to change direction every few days?

 

I don't think it is. Models are waffling for sure. Entire point I was trying to make yesterday morning to a certain someone   

Time will tell with where the AO actually goes....if it does go strongly positive then it spells trouble obviously but who knows where it actually goes. 

[franklin NCwx]

So somebody tell me, why is that notion any more likely to verify than the colder one that was put forth earlier? Why is a warm rest of the winter more likely now than a cold one? Because of some models that have shown an amazing propensity to change direction every few days?

I don't know either. I think the biggest thing that is making the modeled pattern appear warmer is the mjo. Hopefully the recent soi crash will help with the mjo amplitude.

[Brick Tamland]

I don't think it is. Models are waffling for sure. Entire point I was trying to make yesterday morning to a certain someone   

Time will tell with where the AO actually goes....if it does go strongly positive then it spells trouble obviously but who knows where it actually goes. 

 

Weren't folks talking about the models showing a -AO just a few days ago?

[rduwx]

So somebody tell me, why is that notion any more likely to verify than the colder one that was put forth earlier? Why is a warm rest of the winter more likely now than a cold one? Because of some models that have shown an amazing propensity to change direction every few days?

 

I can't say either will happen more than the other at this point.  The point in my post earlier was just that I'd much rather hear positive things from Don S. because of the respect I have for his opinions.  It isn't often he makes a posts that turns out wrong.  Especially when not looking too far into the future.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Don mentions the 91-92 winter. That was one of the best winters in my lifetime. 6" of snow in Georgia !

[SnowGoose69]

Weren't folks talking about the models showing a -AO just a few days ago?

 

That was because the bomb was supposed to move into Canada and distress the PV...at the same time though I don't know how much I buy the current AO forecasts...the spread is big.

[LithiaWx]

Don mentions the 91-92 winter. That was one of the best winters in my lifetime. 6" of snow in Georgia !

 

 

If that is true, pretty sure you have admitted in the past you were not even alive in 1991-1992.  Then the snow was in spite of the pattern not because of the pattern.  1991-1992 was horrible if you look at the maps he posted.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

If that is true, pretty sure you have admitted in the past you were not even alive in 1991-1992. Then the snow was in spite of the pattern not because of the pattern. 1991-1992 was horrible if you look at the maps he posted.

91-92 and 92-93 are the only winters that I can ever recall having 6" of snow in back to back winters. I will never forget the January 1992 snowstorm because it was the first one I can remember.

[tnweathernut]

A lot of the professionals and enthusiasts with quite a bit of knowledge are going to be searching for middle ground with this one.  DT last week firmly planted his feet on the fence, as are others too. If you make money doing this, you just about have to with a few of the conflicting signals, in addition to a pattern that has been stubborn to change.

All that said, they could easily be wrong AGAIN in suggesting the warm winter continues after the coming cold. Time will tell.

[Webberweather53]

It's sad when you giggle and cry at the same time     Well written Don  

 

 

Despite Don being knowledgeable (he would be even more brilliant if he took a step back from the models), I think this is quite premature on his part... Aside from the multitude of other variables that don't match up w/ 1991-92 (multi yr El Nino event 1986-88, hurt -AO chances, the Atlantic SST distribution this year is the exact opposite, we observed a stronger El Nino, multidecadal +AO phase, stronger solar max, later/weaker easterly QBO peak, etc)... I've touted for quite some time now that December is the most boring month of an El Nino winter, & the only thing December has revealed about the overall winter is that it's following right in line w/ what is expected in a Weak El Nino/+TNA...

 

 

 

The polar vortex behavior is certainly not reminiscent of some of the more recent predominantly +AO winters, including 1991-92...

Note how large the polar vortex was at this time in 1991-92, 2011-12, & last winter...

 

This year on the other hand, womp...

 

The claim that Don mentioned in his post which originated from DT that a strengthening easterly QBO is bad for the winter has little basis in the actual data, there are plenty of examples of cold winters that featured strengthening easterly QBOs... Just to name a few..

2009-10, 1995-96, 1976-77, 1962-63, etc...

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Looking @ Sam Lillo's recent research in terms of MQI (Multivariate QBO Index) phase space & SSWEs which promote -AO bursts & can serve as a proxy for how the atmosphere modifies the QBO signal, it shows that an easterly QBO regime w/ the shear zone in & around 30-50mb is least favorable for SSWEs (exactly why this is the case, is unknown to me) however, oncoming & relatively fresh easterly QBO regime is actually quite favorable along w/ of course the weakening Easterly QBO as it descends below 50mb, via viscous diffusion. Also, because of the thermal wind relationship, the emergent westerly shear descent invokes warming in the upper levels to downwell in the stratosphere...

[Brick Tamland]

That was because the bomb was supposed to move into Canada and distress the PV...at the same time though I don't know how much I buy the current AO forecasts...the spread is big.

 

Yeah, that was my point, it has been showing a lot of different things.

[burrel2]

If this winter winds up with a raging +AO, I'll be ready to throw Cohen's Eurasian snowcover research in the garbage can.

[tnweathernut]

Despite Don being knowledgeable (he would be even more brilliant if he took a step back from the models), I think this is quite premature on his part... 

I admire Don and enjoy his posts, but I thought the one from this morning was pretty irresponsible in trying to equate a winter (that begins today btw) with a cold period squarely in front of us, and a change to warm after that may or may not happen with that winter.  

 

I guess if it goes down that way, he may look like a genius, but there are very few similarities he can use to adequately draw that conclusion.

[SnowGoose69]

If this winter winds up with a raging +AO, I'll be ready to throw Cohen's Eurasian snowcover research in the garbage can.

 

 

If that happens I'm blaming it entirely on the solar resurgence....the data has proved fairly good as a whole so I would not toss it based on one major failure but I'd become more cautious.