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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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0z GFS Parallel: 576dm block over BC at 171 hrs out with a 1060mb high over MT.  Chilly wx to say the least.

  Well now, there's something that you don't see every day! That, in itself, would be a frigid outbreak. As some have already mentioned,  I also have a feeling something historic is just over the horizon. Look,.... we had all the LR indicators screaming at us back in October that this would be a cold winter. Now in December we are ready to ignore that? I would not be too hasty to disregard such a strong signal. It has to happen. There is just too much support from past history. Larry said it best, the cold will come. that is a given. Question on everyone's mind is when. I think there will be little warning when it happens (maybe 7 days or less) That's just my opinion

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  Well now, there's something that you don't see every day! That, in itself, would be a frigid outbreak. As some have already mentioned,  I also have a feeling something historic is just over the horizon. Look,.... we had all the LR indicators screaming at us back in October that this would be a cold winter. Now in December we are ready to ignore that? I would not be too hasty to disregard such a strong signal. It has to happen. There is just too much support from past history. Larry said it best, the cold will come. that is a given. Question on everyone's mind is when. I think there will be little warning when it happens (maybe 7 days or less) That's just my opinion

 

I agree.....but I think the models being wishy washy etc is the warning that it is happening and that they are trying to deal with a pretty big pattern change. I suspect that by the end of this week there is a good realistic 7-10 day threat and the models will all be honking a big cold shot etc.

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Looks like snow-to-rain for N NC.  Looks good early on for the I-85 corridor and west in NC, but it quickly torches.

 

Definitely more ridging than I'd like to see, but it's close for NC.  Not a good setup for GA/SC, but it's fantasy-land, so no need to fret.

 

It's cold enough throughout in SW VA, but not much precip makes it up that far.  Nice fire hose out of the Gulf, though!

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Looks like snow-to-rain for N NC.  Looks good early on for the I-85 corridor and west in NC, but it quickly torches.

 

Definitely more ridging than I'd like to see, but it's close for NC.  Not a good setup for GA/SC, but it's fantasy-land, so no need to fret.

 

Every state in the SE except GA/SC/FL see some form of Winter weather this run.  Even if light amounts.  Guess we can merge with Waycross.

The storm signal like the GFS is encouraging though.  Specifics will be out the window as soon as 3-4 days out for an accurate look at the rate the models are acting.

 

I think it's becoming a good bet there will be some type of energy diving out of the West that will most likely roll through a tad faster.. with some kind of HP sliding along the top.  The high pressure might be pushing the idea though... and as always, we are many many days away so it's overall worthless.

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While I agree we seem to change SSW events often, the zonal winds at 1mb, 30 and 40mb are progged to decrease to make the PV weak and the warming has a chance to split it from what I can tell. I'm no met and barely understand these charts but that's a huge drop in the zonal wind progged...similar to November as you can see, flux is increasing as well.

 

gkE9sj5.gif

 

Heat flux observed

9aJImas.gif

 

It could be a relatively big event, enough to break the PV and send it our way, but I don't know much about these charts so best if a met or someone else chimes in probably.

Watch the EPV. When the model shows the flux going vertical or to the right (toward the N pole), there should be some warming. The magnitude of the EP flux will help to determine how strong the warming will be. 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp_wind.php

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Just from watching model trends over the past few months we might want to pay attention not to hour 252 but even around hour 140 in CAD favored areas. Not so much on the Euro but GFS past few runs show HP nosing in again with precip moving in. May not be anything like what follows behind it but in this pattern something may sneak up on us, and given model tendencies this year little surprises like what happened in NC this weekend can turn into bigger surprises quickly

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I totally disagree . That look is not a long way off from something big. It's not a classic setup but you can for sure get something out of that setup . The key that run was the PV with no real blocking the PV acts as a block and suppresses the storm track . You can easily get something big out of that setup.

yeah I agree not too far off. Not getting a miller a out of that setup but a wave riding along the Arctic boundary. That's a situation where surface temps will be colder than midlevel temps.
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Wait just two runs ago it was all negative talk about how horrible things look and now we are back to a colder and active pattern and we are nitpicking the surface face value ???? 500mb is much more important in the 7-10 day range vs surface reflections . So love to worry about if it's showing rain or snow but H5 is much more important. The thing I took away was our western ridge battles the whole run, there a butt load of energy cutting underneath the ridge and a PV that almost splits that is in a good position to keep everything on a southern track and to keep energy from cutting.

Who cares what's showing at the surface on a 7-10 day plot. H5 is what matters

Good post!

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isn't that showing the same basic idea though?

 

No, the ridging in the SE is much weaker on last nights 0z run.  

 

Edit:  Although, I guess one could argue the west coast ridging is stronger, or you can argue the west coast ridging is stronger and the SE ridging is weaker.  Either way it was a much better look on day 9, specifically days 8-11.  And, of course, it's just one run.

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The day 6-7 event is interesting, still would take some work to get something out of this but the models have really missed big at this range.  Be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

Not surprising the Euro is much further north with this, has the snows into central PA and NYC.

 

 

 

 

post-2311-0-98849800-1419340071_thumb.pn

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