Wow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 0z GFS continuing the trend of strengthening the west coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I say we are still chasing this SSW event. People harp of chasing patterns yet chasing a SSW event is doing the same thing. By the way I don't think anyone mentioned but the 18z GFS did split the PV yet it was able to strengthen agin later in the run . But there was a split While I agree we seem to change SSW events often, the zonal winds at 1mb, 30 and 40mb are progged to decrease to make the PV weak and the warming has a chance to split it from what I can tell. I'm no met and barely understand these charts but that's a huge drop in the zonal wind progged...similar to November as you can see, flux is increasing as well. Heat flux observed It could be a relatively big event, enough to break the PV and send it our way, but I don't know much about these charts so best if a met or someone else chimes in probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Thanks Jon. That's good. Hopefully, it continues. No prob, and agreed we need all the help we can get while the models continue their chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 As long as we can keep the west coast ridge pumped up well have a fighting chance here heading into the peek climo period. It atleast gives us something to hang our hat on. combine with a more activr than normal stj, we should be able to cash in atleast once if not 2 or 3 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 0z GFS is much colder with the PV into Canada earlier than it has been in previous runs, sub 492 already in the hudson by 189-192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 LR looking a lot better on tonights 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Arctic air spilling into the northern plains day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS sounds good from what I am reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 216 looks like we have an ULL hanging out west coming with deep cold rushing in place over the hudson, this run will definitely be colder....we could have fireworks with this one This could be a big event, moisture tapping the gulf at 240 not the big one but I don't understand the 850mb charts, likely due to low res...snow in the SE and NC at 252 anyway...this run was close to a monster storm IMO, the storm didn't cut like the 18z, the cold just left when the moisture arrived otherwise the SE would be buried. Funny how the GFS has flipped in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 well, here is the GFS throwing out warning shots if its right. Sure they are borderline, but what threat usually isn't around the SE. Looks overall pretty nice in the mid to longer range. 100000000000 is it even close to being right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Think I see some ice in upper SC around hr 252. ;/ might need a closer look later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We have had a strong signal for something around the 1st for a while. It might go away on the models for a while, but it seems to always come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yes, definitely looks like some ice even into NC. 850s arent cold enough for the most part at hr 252: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We've been to hell and back over the last 24 hours. What a hobby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 216 looks like we have an ULL hanging out west coming with deep cold rushing in place over the hudson, this run will definitely be colder....we could have fireworks with this one This could be a big event, moisture tapping the gulf at 240 not the big one but I don't understand the 850mb charts, likely due to low res...snow in the SE and NC at 252 anyway...this run was close to a monster storm IMO, the storm didn't cut like the 18z, the cold just left when the moisture arrived otherwise the SE would be buried. Funny how the GFS has flipped in the LR 252 you see snow? It looks way way too warm on instant weather maps. Like not even close, one of us has to be looking at the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah most definitely ICE...but man that's a lot of precip for 11-15 day...if we get our cold, verbatim, I don't think we should be worried about chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 252 you see snow? It looks way way too warm on instant weather maps. Like not even close, one of us has to be looking at the para. yes, snow output accumulations on Allan's maps, so I figure it's close enough...probably ice or a mix, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Looks like there's a horribly placed beastly low up in Quebec screwing us over on the GFS. The good news is that it's 10 days away. Looks like it would start as snow in N NC before going over to ice, then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 252 you see snow? It looks way way too warm on instant weather maps. Like not even close, one of us has to be looking at the para.Buzzkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Think I see some ice in upper SC around hr 252. ;/ might need a closer look later. That map has a December 05 look to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 yes, snow output accumulations on Allan's maps, so I figure it's close enough...probably ice or a mix, most likely. I have to disagree, warm air floods in after that frame and we have the issue of no high pressure system. It looks like a horrible setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ptype map to better illustrate I guess: (most certainly ice for most) This is a great time frame to watch. The storm has been showing up around new years pretty well to sound the signals. It will evolve differently.. and I don't buy the energy hanging out in the SW so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wait just two runs ago it was all negative talk about how horrible things look and now we are back to a colder and active pattern and we are nitpicking the surface face value ???? 500mb is much more important in the 7-10 day range vs surface reflections . So love to worry about if it's showing rain or snow but H5 is much more important. The thing I took away was our western ridge battles the whole run, there a butt load of energy cutting underneath the ridge and a PV that almost splits that is in a good position to keep everything on a southern track and to keep energy from cutting. Who cares what's showing at the surface on a 7-10 day plot. H5 is what matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I have to disagree, warm air floods in after that frame and we have the issue of no high pressure system. It looks like a horrible setup. alright man, was just saying what was on the model output...not what I think will happen 100% and yes I feel as if it's due to the resolution at this point...huge trend from the previous runs, setup has a long time to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wait just two runs ago it was all negative talk about how horrible things look and now we are back to a colder and active pattern and we are nitpicking the surface face value ???? 500mb is much more important in the 7-10 day range vs surface reflections . So love to worry about if it's showing rain or snow but H5 is much more important. The thing I took away was our western ridge battles the whole run, there a butt load of energy cutting underneath the ridge and a PV that almost splits that is in a good position to keep everything on a southern track and to keep energy from cutting. Who cares what's showing at the surface on a 7-10 day plot. H5 is what matters Good points. They're still struggling and Jburns said it best a couple days ago about something about to go haywire in the atmosphere to cause these models to be so nutty. I do believe the New Years time is the first true shot we are going to have. This far out, Bob Chill had basically told us the OP run of a model is no better than one ensemble member fwiw. Very excited about the time-frame though. The signal has been here a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 0z GFS Parallel pumping up the ridge more as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wait just two runs ago it was all negative talk about how horrible things look and now we are back to a colder and active pattern and we are nitpicking the surface face value ???? 500mb is much more important in the 7-10 day range vs surface reflections . So love to worry about if it's showing rain or snow but H5 is much more important. The thing I took away was our western ridge battles the whole run, there a butt load of energy cutting underneath the ridge and a PV that almost splits that is in a good position to keep everything on a southern track and to keep energy from cutting. Who cares what's showing at the surface on a 7-10 day plot. H5 is what matters I agree. Despite ptype, huge change, that's all that matters. Much colder in Canada, tons of precip dominating the pattern, we can work with this as future runs continue. I'm almost positive a couple of people will stay up for the Doc tonight given this run. PARA is rolling lets see what she says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 alright man, was just saying what was on the model output...not what I think will happen 100% and yes I feel as if it's due to the resolution at this point...huge trend from the previous runs, setup has a long time to change. I agree nothing in stone yet but man we have a long way to go from that look to SE winter storm. It really seems to me like we are missing a few big players, not that we are like almost there. jmo,, everyone has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I agree nothing in stone yet but man we have a long way to go from that look to SE winter storm. It really seems to me like we are missing a few big players, not that we are like almost there. jmo,, everyone has one. I feel like if we get something around this time period it will be lucky, not because we're locked into a pattern, so I agree with you in that sense. But with that said I also can't say that we won't get locked into something good in January, I just don't know. First step is getting the cold on our freaking side of the globe, second is pumping that ridge, whether EPO or PNA, we already will have the jet it seems. Lots of days to go and lots of things to get in order so I understand where you're coming from, it just looks a hell of a lot better than it has in the last 24 hours of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I agree nothing in stone yet but man we have a long way to go from that look to SE winter storm. It really seems to me like we are missing a few big players, not that we are like almost there. jmo,, everyone has one.I totally disagree . That look is not a long way off from something big. It's not a classic setup but you can for sure get something out of that setup . The key that run was the PV with no real blocking the PV acts as a block and suppresses the storm track . You can easily get something big out of that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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