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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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I say we are still chasing this SSW event. People harp of chasing patterns yet chasing a SSW event is doing the same thing.

By the way I don't think anyone mentioned but the 18z GFS did split the PV yet it was able to strengthen agin later in the run . But there was a split

While I agree we seem to change SSW events often, the zonal winds at 1mb, 30 and 40mb are progged to decrease to make the PV weak and the warming has a chance to split it from what I can tell. I'm no met and barely understand these charts but that's a huge drop in the zonal wind progged...similar to November as you can see, flux is increasing as well.

 

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Heat flux observed

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It could be a relatively big event, enough to break the PV and send it our way, but I don't know much about these charts so best if a met or someone else chimes in probably.

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HR 216 looks like we have an ULL hanging out west coming with deep cold rushing in place over the hudson, this run will definitely be colder....we could have fireworks with this one

 

This could be a big event, moisture tapping the gulf at 240

 

not the big one but I don't understand the 850mb charts, likely due to low res...snow in the SE and NC at 252 anyway...this run was close to a monster storm IMO, the storm didn't cut like the 18z, the cold just left when the moisture arrived otherwise the SE would be buried.

 

Funny how the GFS has flipped in the LR

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HR 216 looks like we have an ULL hanging out west coming with deep cold rushing in place over the hudson, this run will definitely be colder....we could have fireworks with this one

This could be a big event, moisture tapping the gulf at 240

not the big one but I don't understand the 850mb charts, likely due to low res...snow in the SE and NC at 252 anyway...this run was close to a monster storm IMO, the storm didn't cut like the 18z, the cold just left when the moisture arrived otherwise the SE would be buried.

Funny how the GFS has flipped in the LR

252 you see snow? It looks way way too warm on instant weather maps. Like not even close, one of us has to be looking at the para.

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252 you see snow? It looks way way too warm on instant weather maps. Like not even close, one of us has to be looking at the para.

yes, snow output accumulations on Allan's maps, so I figure it's close enough...probably ice or a mix, most likely.

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Ptype map to better illustrate I guess: (most certainly ice for most)  This is a great time frame to watch.  The storm has been showing up around new years pretty well to sound the signals.  It will evolve differently.. and I don't buy the energy hanging out in the SW so long.

 

123.png

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Wait just two runs ago it was all negative talk about how horrible things look and now we are back to a colder and active pattern and we are nitpicking the surface face value ???? 500mb is much more important in the 7-10 day range vs surface reflections . So love to worry about if it's showing rain or snow but H5 is much more important. The thing I took away was our western ridge battles the whole run, there a butt load of energy cutting underneath the ridge and a PV that almost splits that is in a good position to keep everything on a southern track and to keep energy from cutting.

Who cares what's showing at the surface on a 7-10 day plot. H5 is what matters

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I have to disagree, warm air floods in after that frame and we have the issue of no high pressure system. It looks like a horrible setup.

alright man, was just saying what was on the model output...not what I think will happen 100% and yes I feel as if it's due to the resolution at this point...huge trend from the previous runs, setup has a long time to change.

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Wait just two runs ago it was all negative talk about how horrible things look and now we are back to a colder and active pattern and we are nitpicking the surface face value ???? 500mb is much more important in the 7-10 day range vs surface reflections . So love to worry about if it's showing rain or snow but H5 is much more important. The thing I took away was our western ridge battles the whole run, there a butt load of energy cutting underneath the ridge and a PV that almost splits that is in a good position to keep everything on a southern track and to keep energy from cutting.

Who cares what's showing at the surface on a 7-10 day plot. H5 is what matters

 

Good points.  They're still struggling and Jburns said it best a couple days ago about something about to go haywire in the atmosphere to cause these models to be so nutty.  I do believe the New Years time is the first true shot we are going to have.  

 

This far out, Bob Chill had basically told us the OP run of a model is no better than one ensemble member fwiw.

 

Very excited about the time-frame though.  The signal has been here a good bit.

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Wait just two runs ago it was all negative talk about how horrible things look and now we are back to a colder and active pattern and we are nitpicking the surface face value ???? 500mb is much more important in the 7-10 day range vs surface reflections . So love to worry about if it's showing rain or snow but H5 is much more important. The thing I took away was our western ridge battles the whole run, there a butt load of energy cutting underneath the ridge and a PV that almost splits that is in a good position to keep everything on a southern track and to keep energy from cutting.

Who cares what's showing at the surface on a 7-10 day plot. H5 is what matters

I agree. Despite ptype, huge change, that's all that matters. Much colder in Canada, tons of precip dominating the pattern, we can work with this as future runs continue. I'm almost positive a couple of people will stay up for the Doc tonight given this run. PARA is rolling lets see what she says.

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alright man, was just saying what was on the model output...not what I think will happen 100% and yes I feel as if it's due to the resolution at this point...huge trend from the previous runs, setup has a long time to change.

I agree nothing in stone yet but man we have a long way to go from that look to SE winter storm. It really seems to me like we are missing a few big players, not that we are like almost there. jmo,, everyone has one.

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I agree nothing in stone yet but man we have a long way to go from that look to SE winter storm. It really seems to me like we are missing a few big players, not that we are like almost there. jmo,, everyone has one.

I feel like if we get something around this time period it will be lucky, not because we're locked into a pattern, so I agree with you in that sense. But with that said I also can't say that we won't get locked into something good in January, I just don't know. First step is getting the cold on our freaking side of the globe, second is pumping that ridge, whether EPO or PNA, we already will have the jet it seems. Lots of days to go and lots of things to get in order so I understand where you're coming from, it just looks a hell of a lot better than it has in the last 24 hours of runs.

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I agree nothing in stone yet but man we have a long way to go from that look to SE winter storm. It really seems to me like we are missing a few big players, not that we are like almost there. jmo,, everyone has one.

I totally disagree . That look is not a long way off from something big. It's not a classic setup but you can for sure get something out of that setup . The key that run was the PV with no real blocking the PV acts as a block and suppresses the storm track . You can easily get something big out of that setup.
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