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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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Burger - check the run date/times for the GFS Para.  I don't think it is updating and you are getting the same runs.

 

Looking at ensemble trends, it appears to me that the Atlantic ideas have trended toward the Euro with the -NAO spike being rather brief....and the Pacific ideas have trended toward the GFS with the stout and favorably oriented -EPO ridge.  

 

Didn't even notice that. Looks like it's updating now. 6z is very CADish for that time period on the PARA. 

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Well, so much for the warm CFSv2 Jan fcast. It has solid cold in the E US now and the coldest anomalies on the planet. 1939-40 type winter still possible based on this!

Day by day evolution of Jan fcast as it got colder over last week:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201501.gif

It also has drier than normal for the SE outside of SE GA and FL though it often takes only one major winter storm to make it a memorable winter for much of the SE US and cold is much more crucial than wet based on history. Example: Feb. 1895 was quite dry in ATL with only 2". Yet, it is the snowiest month in ATL history with 11.6" from 3 storms!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201501.gif

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Well, so much for the warm CFSv2 Jan fcast. It has solid cold in the E US now and the coldest anomalies on the planet. 1939-40 type winter still possible based on this!

Day by day evolution of Jan fcast as it got colder over last week:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201501.gif

It also has drier than normal for the SE outside of SE GA and FL though it often takes only one major winter storm to make it a memorable winter for much of the SE US and cold is much more crucial than wet based on history. Example: Feb. 1895 was quite dry in ATL with only 2". Yet, it is the snowiest month in ATL history!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201501.gif

 

 

Was about to mention the same thing. CFS looks great for Jan. Also just to give people an idea of what I look at in the morning is an archived look at all the model run composites. Not sure if this is unique to SV but it makes it totally worth the price.I can only see the the runs from the day before so it's hard to say how good it will look from today and last night's runs.  Looking over the last few days the Euro ENS is slowly trending towards the GFS with more cold centered towards the east.  We'll see what happens but I've been very encouraged with the trends. 

 

65x7sDR.png

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Burger/folks,

As mentioned, the CFSv2 has the coldest anomalies on the planet for Jan in the E US with some of the SE being a whopping 3-4 C below normal or 5.4-7.2 below!! That's a heck of an anomaly for a monthly forecast, especially with the start still being 12 days away.

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I wonder if the CFS is dry because the cold is overwhelming.

It could be since Arctic air is dry by nature. However, I'd welcome that opportunity. The very cold Feb. Of 1895 was like that (only 2" of rainfall ATL) and yet it produced three snowstorms there adding up to a whopping 11.6" there, the snowiest on record!

Besides, a cold winter would mean a lot of excitement, regardless, though I'd strongly prefer we also get one or two nice winter storms.

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It could be since Arctic air is dry by nature. However, I'd welcome that opportunity. The very cold Feb. Of 1895 was like that (only 2" of rainfall ATL) and yet it produced three snowstorms there adding up to a whopping 11.6" there, the snowiest on record!

 

Larry, I'm with you. I'll take all the cold air I can get and settle up with moisture later. 

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I think the models look pretty good, if you ask me.  Thanks Larry, Burger for the maps today.  Queencity, I agree with you as well, I think the Christmas storm is going to have some fun surprises.  If the the warm sector doesn't get too muddied, and the storms don't get super crazy over the Gulf, someone is going to have some fun svr weather out of this. 

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Well, so much for the warm CFSv2 Jan fcast. It has solid cold in the E US now and the coldest anomalies on the planet. 1939-40 type winter still possible based on this!

Day by day evolution of Jan fcast as it got colder over last week:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201501.gif

It also has drier than normal for the SE outside of SE GA and FL though it often takes only one major winter storm to make it a memorable winter for much of the SE US and cold is much more crucial than wet based on history. Example: Feb. 1895 was quite dry in ATL with only 2". Yet, it is the snowiest month in ATL history with 11.6" from 3 storms!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201501.gif

The CFS' forecast for extremely dry conditions doesn't make much sense to me given the pattern it's predicting. A huge -EPO block would allow for strong disturbances to undercut the ridge and move into the Southeast, potentially producing wintry weather given the degree of cold the CFS is forecasting.

 

But when does the CFS make sense anyways? :)

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