franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's almost definitely the QBO, I was worried about that and most forecasters largely ignored it, a -25 to -30 QBO wasn't going away overnight. The solar spike which by the way has just resurfaced a bit is probably to blame as well. I also have mentioned the fact we came off 3-4 years of a La Niña could be causing an atmospheric lag effect but some notable mets have shot me down a bit on that idea.I thought a negative qbo aided in blocking? I agree somewhat with your "lag effect" thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 This solar spike is fairly low compared to other solar maxes though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I thought a negative qbo aided in blocking? I agree somewhat with your "lag effect" thinking. Not this negative I think numbers near -8 to -3 or so but I believe 07-08 was the last winter that had a raging -QBO like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's almost definitely the QBO, I was worried about that and most forecasters largely ignored it, a -25 to -30 QBO wasn't going away overnight. The solar spike which by the way has just resurfaced a bit is probably to blame as well. I also have mentioned the fact we came off 3-4 years of a La Niña could be causing an atmospheric lag effect but some notable mets have shot me down a bit on that idea. How does this winter get turned around then. Like you said the strong -QBO isn't going away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 How does this winter get turned around then. Like you said the strong -QBO isn't going away. 1300m mentioned that he thought the QBO didn't hold that much sway over the pattern. Who knows. It probably is interconnected in ways we barely understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 How does this winter get turned around then. Like you said the strong -QBO isn't going away. I'm leaning toward us having to get into the 7th-8th phase of the MJO which may....MAY happen if you extrapolate the euro out right now near 1/10 to 1/15, putting it into the COD may help too, I'm starting to think if that can quiet down we have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 1300m mentioned that he thought the QBO didn't hold that much sway over the pattern. Who knows. It probably is interconnected in ways we barely understand. The problem so far has largely been lack of blocking, the North Atlantic SSTs are not that horrible for a -NAO and the GOA SSTs are good for ridging so my only hunch is to really believe either the QBO or solar increase are the problem and possibly the MJO...the first 2 tend to be very anti blocking when they are strongly negative and active respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The problem so far has largely been lack of blocking, the North Atlantic SSTs are not that horrible for a -NAO and the GOA SSTs are good for ridging so my only hunch is to really believe either the QBO or solar increase are the problem and possibly the MJO...the first 2 tend to be very anti blocking when they are strongly negative and active respectively Gotcha. I was under the impression that even though we're in a solar max, it wasn't that robust in context with other maxes. Always appreciate your input here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Its incredible how much uncertainty there is with the Gulf low that is progged to move into the Great Lakes region just one-two days out with model spread taking the low anywhere from just west of Lake Michigan to near the Ohio/Pennsylvania state line. Your the first and only red tag from Greenville NC up here its awesome to finally get someone more east NC focused in the red tag bunch so welcome... Hopefully the fact the models are so spread is a sign that they the pattern change is occurring and we will get a stab at some legit winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The problem so far has largely been lack of blocking, the North Atlantic SSTs are not that horrible for a -NAO and the GOA SSTs are good for ridging so my only hunch is to really believe either the QBO or solar increase are the problem and possibly the MJO...the first 2 tend to be very anti blocking when they are strongly negative and active respectively Just my opinion we have to see the trough out west relax then we can get into a pattern that will allow the AO work for us but until then models will show change only to be disappointed in the end. But it will come just when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The problem so far has largely been lack of blocking, the North Atlantic SSTs are not that horrible for a -NAO and the GOA SSTs are good for ridging so my only hunch is to really believe either the QBO or solar increase are the problem and possibly the MJO...the first 2 tend to be very anti blocking when they are strongly negative and active respectivelywhat about the recent soi crash, that should help with the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 what about the recent soi crash, that should help with the mjo? What I was hoping too. Although would like to see it even more negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well, WxSouth posted just last night that the cold pattern wad still on schedule, and said he sees no reason to back down from a cold, stormy winter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just my opinion we have to see the trough out west relax then we can get into a pattern that will allow the AO work for us but until then models will show change only to be disappointed in the end. But it will come just when Glad to see u still alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well, WxSouth posted just last night that the cold pattern wad still on schedule. No offense at all toward Robert but he also posted at the end of November that the pattern was going to turn "extremely wintry" soon. I enjoy reading his thoughts, but LR forecasting is hard, and you have to always keep in the back of your mind that there are any number of things that can go wrong to mess up the pattern you expect is about to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 No offense at all toward Robert but he also posted at the end of November that the pattern was going to turn "extremely wintry" soon. I enjoy reading his thoughts, but LR forecasting is hard, and you have to always keep in the back of your mind that there are any number of things that can go wrong to mess up the pattern you expect is about to unfold. He wasn't talking about the long range, though. He was saying it is still on schedule for the end of this month and beginning not January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Glad to see u still alive! Flu has been rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Para has been hinting at the PV getting hit from both sides at starting around day 10. The warming does wane by day 16 and the Euro isn't showing this, atleast not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wasn't the Euro showing a big strat warming a couple days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wasn't the Euro showing a big strat warming a couple days ago? Thanks for the reminder...MikeV tweeted this for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Your the first and only red tag from Greenville NC up here its awesome to finally get someone more east NC focused in the red tag bunch so welcome... Hopefully the fact the models are so spread is a sign that they the pattern change is occurring and we will get a stab at some legit winter weather. Thanks Downeastnc - I'm excited to be part of the forum. Yep its certainly a possibility. Even though this first storm isn't looking to produce much in the way of winter weather in our part of the world, hopefully it will kick off a series of storms that lay down snow cover to our north and west while building a ridge over the North Atlantic to improve our odds of a favorable pattern for Jan & Feb. US snowcover is pretty sparse right now so we could use all the help we could use in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Page 20 of 21 shows the composites for (NDJ) and their significiances of the MJO Phases. Regarding (DJF) composites: phases 3/4/5 all the show warmer then average temperatures for us, including 80% confidence of the influence regarding those temperatures, even phases 3/4/5 for the (NDJ) composites also all show warmth for us except at lower confidence levels being phase 4 the lowest with about 70% to a 80% confidence, with phase 6 being the highest confidence with about 95%. With the GFS Ensembles going into 3/4/5 with MJO showing warmth with high confidence regarding (DJF) and even with a lag, seems to go against its cold Ensembles. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 That was 3 days ago, Pack. I wonder if the EPS is still showing that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 79/80 is interesting as it had a strong -QBO, weak nino, +PDO. The -QBO did weaken in Jan/Feb. It had warm Dec, had a cold blip in early Jan, rest of Jan was seasonal and end of Jan to mid-Feb the hammer dropped and multiple winter storms for Raleigh. It relaxed for a week in mid Feb and got cold again and we had a big winter storm in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ^ December looks like a pretty good match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 79/80 is interesting as it had a strong -QBO, weak nino, +PDO. The -QBO did weaken in Jan/Feb. It had warm Dec, had a cold blip in early Jan, rest of Jan was seasonal and end of Jan to mid-Feb the hammer dropped and multiple winter storms for Raleigh. It relaxed for a week in mid Feb and got cold again and we had a big winter storm in early March. There is a met at the other board who has been using 79-80 to compare to this winter for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 That was 3 days ago, Pack. I wonder if the EPS is still showing that.... both the Euro and GFS continue to show warming at 144hrs with today's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Thanks Jon. That's good. Hopefully, it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 weather update on my thoughts for Severe weather and the overall forecast for us going through the next few days. Take a look, let me know what y'all think, please. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I say we are still chasing this SSW event. People harp of chasing patterns yet chasing a SSW event is doing the same thing. By the way I don't think anyone mentioned but the 18z GFS did split the PV yet it was able to strengthen agin later in the run . But there was a split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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