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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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It's almost definitely the QBO, I was worried about that and most forecasters largely ignored it, a -25 to -30 QBO wasn't going away overnight. The solar spike which by the way has just resurfaced a bit is probably to blame as well. I also have mentioned the fact we came off 3-4 years of a La Niña could be causing an atmospheric lag effect but some notable mets have shot me down a bit on that idea.

I thought a negative qbo aided in blocking?

I agree somewhat with your "lag effect" thinking.

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It's almost definitely the QBO, I was worried about that and most forecasters largely ignored it, a -25 to -30 QBO wasn't going away overnight. The solar spike which by the way has just resurfaced a bit is probably to blame as well. I also have mentioned the fact we came off 3-4 years of a La Niña could be causing an atmospheric lag effect but some notable mets have shot me down a bit on that idea.

How does this winter get turned around then. Like you said the strong -QBO isn't going away.

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How does this winter get turned around then. Like you said the strong -QBO isn't going away.

I'm leaning toward us having to get into the 7th-8th phase of the MJO which may....MAY happen if you extrapolate the euro out right now near 1/10 to 1/15, putting it into the COD may help too, I'm starting to think if that can quiet down we have a shot.

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1300m mentioned that he thought the QBO didn't hold that much sway over the pattern. Who knows. It probably is interconnected in ways we barely understand.

The problem so far has largely been lack of blocking, the North Atlantic SSTs are not that horrible for a -NAO and the GOA SSTs are good for ridging so my only hunch is to really believe either the QBO or solar increase are the problem and possibly the MJO...the first 2 tend to be very anti blocking when they are strongly negative and active respectively

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The problem so far has largely been lack of blocking, the North Atlantic SSTs are not that horrible for a -NAO and the GOA SSTs are good for ridging so my only hunch is to really believe either the QBO or solar increase are the problem and possibly the MJO...the first 2 tend to be very anti blocking when they are strongly negative and active respectively

Gotcha. I was under the impression that even though we're in a solar max, it wasn't that robust in context with other maxes. Always appreciate your input here.

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Its incredible how much uncertainty there is with the Gulf low that is progged to move into the Great Lakes region just one-two days out with model spread taking the low anywhere from just west of Lake Michigan to near the Ohio/Pennsylvania state line.

 

Your the first and only red tag from Greenville NC up here its awesome to finally get someone more east NC focused in the red tag bunch so welcome...

 

Hopefully the fact the models are so spread is a sign that they the pattern change is occurring and we will get a stab at some legit winter weather.

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The problem so far has largely been lack of blocking, the North Atlantic SSTs are not that horrible for a -NAO and the GOA SSTs are good for ridging so my only hunch is to really believe either the QBO or solar increase are the problem and possibly the MJO...the first 2 tend to be very anti blocking when they are strongly negative and active respectively

Just my opinion we have to see the trough out west relax then we can get into a pattern that will allow the AO work for us but until then models will show change only to be disappointed in the end. But it will come just when

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The problem so far has largely been lack of blocking, the North Atlantic SSTs are not that horrible for a -NAO and the GOA SSTs are good for ridging so my only hunch is to really believe either the QBO or solar increase are the problem and possibly the MJO...the first 2 tend to be very anti blocking when they are strongly negative and active respectively

what about the recent soi crash, that should help with the mjo?
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Well, WxSouth posted just last night that the cold pattern wad still on schedule.

No offense at all toward Robert but he also posted at the end of November that the pattern was going to turn "extremely wintry" soon. I enjoy reading his thoughts, but LR forecasting is hard, and you have to always keep in the back of your mind that there are any number of things that can go wrong to mess up the pattern you expect is about to unfold.

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No offense at all toward Robert but he also posted at the end of November that the pattern was going to turn "extremely wintry" soon. I enjoy reading his thoughts, but LR forecasting is hard, and you have to always keep in the back of your mind that there are any number of things that can go wrong to mess up the pattern you expect is about to unfold.

He wasn't talking about the long range, though. He was saying it is still on schedule for the end of this month and beginning not January.

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Your the first and only red tag from Greenville NC up here its awesome to finally get someone more east NC focused in the red tag bunch so welcome...

 

Hopefully the fact the models are so spread is a sign that they the pattern change is occurring and we will get a stab at some legit winter weather.

 

Thanks Downeastnc - I'm excited to be part of the forum.

 

Yep its certainly a possibility. Even though this first storm isn't looking to produce much in the way of winter weather in our part of the world, hopefully it will kick off a series of storms that lay down snow cover to our north and west while building a ridge over the North Atlantic to improve our odds of a favorable pattern for Jan & Feb. US snowcover is pretty sparse right now so we could use all the help we could use in that area.

 

2014356.png

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Page 20 of 21 shows the composites for (NDJ) and their significiances of the MJO Phases. Regarding (DJF) composites: phases 3/4/5 all the show warmer then average temperatures for us, including 80% confidence of the influence regarding those temperatures, even phases 3/4/5 for the (NDJ) composites also all show warmth for us except at lower confidence levels being phase 4 the lowest with about 70% to a 80% confidence, with phase 6 being the highest confidence with about 95%. With the GFS Ensembles going into 3/4/5 with MJO showing warmth with high confidence regarding (DJF) and even with a lag, seems to go against its cold Ensembles.  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png

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79/80 is interesting as it had a strong -QBO, weak nino, +PDO.  The -QBO did weaken in Jan/Feb.  It had warm Dec, had a cold blip in early Jan, rest of Jan was seasonal and end of Jan to mid-Feb the hammer dropped and multiple winter storms for Raleigh.   It relaxed for a week in mid Feb and got cold again and we had a big winter storm in early March.

post-2311-0-36595600-1419304553_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-95964600-1419304553_thumb.pn

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79/80 is interesting as it had a strong -QBO, weak nino, +PDO. The -QBO did weaken in Jan/Feb. It had warm Dec, had a cold blip in early Jan, rest of Jan was seasonal and end of Jan to mid-Feb the hammer dropped and multiple winter storms for Raleigh. It relaxed for a week in mid Feb and got cold again and we had a big winter storm in early March.

There is a met at the other board who has been using 79-80 to compare to this winter for a while now.

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