burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Good news and bad news. Bad news: the Euro weeklies suck, period. They have E US ridging/-PNA as well as +NAO and +AO to the end. There's no way to sugar coat that. Now, for those who haven't turned away after that bad news, here's the good news: 18Z GFS is starting off even better than the 12Z GFS (which itself was much improved vs. the 0Z/6Z GFS) with very impressive west coast ridging at 168! Also, keep in mind that the Euro weeklies are based on the 0Z run. So, in essence they're a little outdated. Ughhh....that's not good at all. Hopefully weeklies are on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 From 150-216 that energy out west never moves east just kind of meanders south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What a nice SE ridge on the 18z. The cold never really makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS PARA has a strange look. Just one big piece of energy strung out across the middle of the US from about Washington state to NY. Just keeps it there for a few days. Sfc. doesn't look bad it's cold enough for winter weather but just odd looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What a nice SE ridge on the 18z. The cold never really makes it. Not if there's a mean trough east of HI... that does not teleconnect to a SE ridge. Junk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What a nice SE ridge on the 18z. The cold never really makes it. We badly need the GFS PARA to be on to something lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS PARA looks night and day better....18z didn't look terrible but cold never quite made it and that energy out west did nothing....don't buy that for one minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I agree guys. The models run to run inconsistency right know is awful. Maybe a sign of big changes in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I agree guys. The models run to run inconsistency right know is awful. Maybe a sign of big changes in the near future. It's enough to give you a headache....every model wants to do something different. One thing is for sure models have to understand how not only this Christmas storm wraps up but the storm after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Good news and bad news. Bad news: the Euro weeklies suck, period. They have E US ridging/-PNA as well as +NAO and +AO to the end. There's no way to sugar coat that. Now, for those who haven't turned away after that bad news, here's the good news: 18Z GFS is starting off even better than the 12Z GFS (which itself was much improved vs. the 0Z/6Z GFS) with very impressive west coast ridging at 168! Also, keep in mind that the Euro weeklies are based on the 0Z run. So, in essence they're a little outdated. Wow, just looked, they are awful. That takes us to end of Jan. Who would have thought our epic winter would be epically bad. I am a little shocked the SAI/SCE is going to bust this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 These are the same weeklies that had us cooling weeks 3 and 4 what just last week correct? So now the weeklies have a great track record ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's enough to give you a headache....every model wants to do something different. One thing is for sure models have to understand how not only this Christmas storm wraps up but the storm after that.yeah good post burger. A lot of energy flying around for the models to handle right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 These are the same weeklies that had us cooling weeks 3 and 4 what just last week correct? So now the weeklies have a great track record ??? He's too far gone. It's going to take a snow storm to bring him back up....kind of like Darth Vader needing to see his son almost killed by the Emperor in order to change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Not if there's a mean trough east of HI... that does not teleconnect to a SE ridge. Junk it. Why junk it? What if the trough east of HI is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Why junk it? What if the trough east of HI is wrong? It's the one thing it has been consistent with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 He's too far gone. It's going to take a snow storm to bring him back up....kind of like Darth Vader needing to see his son almost killed by the Emperor in order to change! Lol great point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's the one thing it has been consistent with. I wouldn't junk it just for that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 He's too far gone. It's going to take a snow storm to bring him back up....kind of like Darth Vader needing to see his son almost killed by the Emperor in order to change! Lol great point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I didn't think the weeklies were awful. Far better than the Dec pattern we've been enduring. It's not really a se ridge. Just above normal heights overall in the east. Isobars show cold highs still dropping in from Canada. -epo intact week 3. Just fast progressive flow with fronts and relaxes before the next front. It's not a great look or anything but at least one that is only one step away from being good. Overall looks like a see saw type pattern. This will be a good test of the theory that lr patterns that are good fade and ones that suck lock in. Considering how jumpy everything has been it's hard to latch onto anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's enough to give you a headache....every model wants to do something different. One thing is for sure models have to understand how not only this Christmas storm wraps up but the storm after that. Its incredible how much uncertainty there is with the Gulf low that is progged to move into the Great Lakes region just one-two days out with model spread taking the low anywhere from just west of Lake Michigan to near the Ohio/Pennsylvania state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I didn't think the weeklies were awful. Far better than the Dec pattern we've been enduring. It's not really a se ridge. Just above normal heights overall in the east. Isobars show cold highs still dropping in from Canada. -epo intact week 3. Just fast progressive flow with fronts and relaxes before the next front. It's not a great look or anything but at least one that is only one step away from being good. Overall looks like a see saw type pattern. This will be a good test of the theory that lr patterns that are good fade and ones that suck lock in. Considering how jumpy everything has been it's hard to latch onto anything right now. Thanks Bob for the rundown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That looks pretty rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Good post from WRAL's Greg Fishel a little while ago on facebook. What is going on currently gives me a great opportunity to differentiate between a large scale pattern and weather specifics. Based on ensembles, we speculated two weeks ago that the large scale pattern would amplify around Christmas. It is indeed doing just that. But this pattern has many subsets of weather specifics, one of which is wintry precipitation. Again, only one of many. It is tempting when one is a snow lover to jump to the weather specific desired, and ignore the other options. I know. Earlier in my career, I did it all the time! But now it is almost Christmas, and it is becoming clearer which weather specific will play out, and it doesn't involve snow for at least the next week. Beyond that, there is hope, but only hope at this juncture. Stay tuned and THINK SNOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So in other words, Greg Fishel isn't too gung ho on winter weather. Neat. I predict total melt-down soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It goes back to that big Low in Alaska around the end of Oct. the pattern has been the same and the models have been horrible . I don't see any change until we have a big storm change he pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So in other words, Greg Fishel isn't too gung ho on winter weather. Neat. I predict total melt-down soon enough. That's not how I read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It goes back to that big Low in Alaska around the end of Oct. the pattern has been the same and the models have been horrible . I don't see any change until we have a big storm change he pattern . Well, it looks like we could have one Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It goes back to that big Low in Alaska around the end of Oct. the pattern has been the same and the models have been horrible . I don't see any change until we have a big storm change he pattern . It's almost definitely the QBO, I was worried about that and most forecasters largely ignored it, a -25 to -30 QBO wasn't going away overnight. The solar spike which by the way has just resurfaced a bit is probably to blame as well. I also have mentioned the fact we came off 3-4 years of a La Niña could be causing an atmospheric lag effect but some notable mets have shot me down a bit on that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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