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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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 Good news and bad news. Bad news: the Euro weeklies suck, period. They have E US ridging/-PNA as well as +NAO and +AO to the end. There's no way to sugar coat that. Now, for those who haven't turned away after that bad news, here's the good news: 18Z GFS is starting off even better than the 12Z GFS (which itself was much improved vs. the 0Z/6Z GFS) with very impressive west coast ridging at 168! Also, keep in mind that the Euro weeklies are based on the 0Z run. So, in essence they're a little outdated.

 

Ughhh....that's not good at all. Hopefully weeklies are on crack. 

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I agree guys. The models run to run inconsistency right know is awful. Maybe a sign of big changes in the near future.

 

It's enough to give you a headache....every model wants to do something different. One thing is for sure models have to understand how not only this Christmas storm wraps up but the storm after that. 

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Good news and bad news. Bad news: the Euro weeklies suck, period. They have E US ridging/-PNA as well as +NAO and +AO to the end. There's no way to sugar coat that. Now, for those who haven't turned away after that bad news, here's the good news: 18Z GFS is starting off even better than the 12Z GFS (which itself was much improved vs. the 0Z/6Z GFS) with very impressive west coast ridging at 168! Also, keep in mind that the Euro weeklies are based on the 0Z run. So, in essence they're a little outdated.

Wow, just looked, they are awful. That takes us to end of Jan. Who would have thought our epic winter would be epically bad. I am a little shocked the SAI/SCE is going to bust this bad.

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These are the same weeklies that had us cooling weeks 3 and 4 what just last week correct? So now the weeklies have a great track record ???

 

He's too far gone. It's going to take a snow storm to bring him back up....kind of like Darth Vader needing to see his son almost killed by the Emperor in order to change!

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I didn't think the weeklies were awful. Far better than the Dec pattern we've been enduring. It's not really a se ridge. Just above normal heights overall in the east. Isobars show cold highs still dropping in from Canada. -epo intact week 3. Just fast progressive flow with fronts and relaxes before the next front. It's not a great look or anything but at least one that is only one step away from being good. Overall looks like a see saw type pattern.

This will be a good test of the theory that lr patterns that are good fade and ones that suck lock in. Considering how jumpy everything has been it's hard to latch onto anything right now.

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It's enough to give you a headache....every model wants to do something different. One thing is for sure models have to understand how not only this Christmas storm wraps up but the storm after that. 

 

Its incredible how much uncertainty there is with the Gulf low that is progged to move into the Great Lakes region just one-two days out with model spread taking the low anywhere from just west of Lake Michigan to near the Ohio/Pennsylvania state line.

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I didn't think the weeklies were awful. Far better than the Dec pattern we've been enduring. It's not really a se ridge. Just above normal heights overall in the east. Isobars show cold highs still dropping in from Canada. -epo intact week 3. Just fast progressive flow with fronts and relaxes before the next front. It's not a great look or anything but at least one that is only one step away from being good. Overall looks like a see saw type pattern.

This will be a good test of the theory that lr patterns that are good fade and ones that suck lock in. Considering how jumpy everything has been it's hard to latch onto anything right now.

Thanks Bob for the rundown.
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Good post from WRAL's Greg Fishel a little while ago on facebook.

 

What is going on currently gives me a great opportunity to differentiate between a large scale pattern and weather specifics. Based on ensembles, we speculated two weeks ago that the large scale pattern would amplify around Christmas. It is indeed doing just that. But this pattern has many subsets of weather specifics, one of which is wintry precipitation. Again, only one of many. It is tempting when one is a snow lover to jump to the weather specific desired, and ignore the other options. I know. Earlier in my career, I did it all the time! But now it is almost Christmas, and it is becoming clearer which weather specific will play out, and it doesn't involve snow for at least the next week. Beyond that, there is hope, but only hope at this juncture. Stay tuned and THINK SNOW!!!

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It goes back to that big Low in Alaska around the end of Oct. the pattern has been the same and the models have been horrible . I don't see any change until we have a big storm change he pattern .

It's almost definitely the QBO, I was worried about that and most forecasters largely ignored it, a -25 to -30 QBO wasn't going away overnight. The solar spike which by the way has just resurfaced a bit is probably to blame as well. I also have mentioned the fact we came off 3-4 years of a La Niña could be causing an atmospheric lag effect but some notable mets have shot me down a bit on that idea.

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