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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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Euro EPS so far looks better today so far to me. PV not as far south but looks stronger and further east than the 00z run. Also has bigger highs coming out of Canada. Probably not going to be a slam dunk cold run but it's taken a step. We'll have to see where it goes from here my maps are only out to like 123 hours.

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New weather video is up.  We talk about the Severe weather possibilities for us across the state and much of the SE.  I do think we have a shot at severe weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Also look ahead to Christmas weather and into the weekend storm.  I actually think we could have some fun and games with that one as well.  Then, we shall talk about the storm for next week...Maybe some wintry fun with the NYD storm, or a couple of them around that timeframe.  And last but not least, we will talk about the overall pattern and NOT to cancel winter and NOT to jump off the cliff.  Please stay weather aware and as always feedback is appreciated.  Please continue to share my video, page and if you don't mind hit the invite button to your friends for  them to like my page potentially as well.  -Chris

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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Spacing makes it near impossible to really get a handle on. With the se ridge trying to flex, it would go a long way to get a real cold push in first. Never makes it until d9-10 on this run. That can easily change of course but I'm not going to bite on anything until cold air is established beforehand.

very good point.  I want to see the pattern push the cold front through the SE first.  Then worry about a wave or 2.

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What? One inch?

When you see how bad the EPS is day 11 on you will take 1" too. Funny, the "good pattern"'on the Euro starts day 9 and it feels like it's taken forever to get here, but the "bad pattern" is coming fast and furious on the models.

Last time I felt like this was 2011-12.

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When you see how bad the EPS is day 11 on you will take 1" too. Funny, the "good pattern"'on the Euro starts day 9 and it feels like it's taken forever to get here, but the "bad pattern" is coming fast and furious on the models.

Last time I felt like this was 2011-12.

Well, I can't see the EPS past 240, which is probably good. Time to pull out the ol' "models don't have a good handle on the situation". They probably don't. Hopefully, they don't.

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When you see how bad the EPS is day 11 on you will take 1" too. Funny, the "good pattern"'on the Euro starts day 9 and it feels like it's taken forever to get here, but the "bad pattern" is coming fast and furious on the models.

Last time I felt like this was 2011-12.

 

 

This is nothing like that disaster. I don't think we had 3 days in a row at any point during that winter when it looked like it the pac jet was going to slow down on any models. Hell we might not have 3 runs in a row on any model. Horrible. 

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Let's see...EPS day 11+ shows, +AO, +NAO, -PNA and +EPO. The good news is they are all bad, atleast we can't say well if just NAO would cooperate. Sometimes hope is a bad thing.

I just threw up in my mouth a little.

Well I will say this, the odds of that mess being correct is no higher than the odds of a mega ice age being correct. So, at least, we have that.

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Well, I can't see the EPS past 240, which is probably good. Time to pull out the ol' "models don't have a good handle on the situation". They probably don't. Hopefully, they don't.

I keep closing my eyes and double checking what it shows. The good news is the weeklies can't show the pattern any worse...can it.

I feel like we are starting Dec all over again.

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I keep closing my eyes and double checking what it shows. The good news is the weeklies can't show the pattern any worse...can it.

I feel like we are starting Dec all over again.

 

Don't worry, week 4 of the weeklies in a few hours is gonna look great!  Sorry :(

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Weren't we chasing a good pattern that never came all winter in 2012-2013? I seem to remember that a pattern change was always two weeks away until it was April. Thankfully, we did have a solid wintry week in mid to late January with the ULL and then the sleet and freezing rain storm on January 25th which saved winter.

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In addition to Equatorial VP research, I'm currently in the process of reconstructing some of the pre 1980 snowstorms which affected east-central North Carolina that aren't currently shown in the RAH Past Events archive. One of the more notable storms was February 17-19 1979...

 

"The snow storm began late Saturday and ended early Monday. Snow fall ranged from trace along the Coast; 6 to 8 inches on the Coastal Plain; 9 to 13 inches in the Piedmont; and 10 to 19 inches in the Mountains. Several buildings collapsed from snow on the roof. Poultry farms in Union County have near 1/2 million dollars in damage. Eight people were killed. Four got lost in the snow and died of exposure; two boys were killed by a snow plow; and two men had heart attacks in the snow. Businesses and schools closed. Some utility lines were damaged. Several scout troops had to be rescued in the mountains where they were camped. In addition there were many people injured and cars damaged from snow related accidents."

 

19790217-19790219-4.77.jpg

 

I combined the NESIS map w/ COOP observations (which are displayed) & used some previous knowledge regarding NC winter storm climatology to make this map

 

Feb-17-19-1979-NC-Snow-Accumulation-map-

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I keep closing my eyes and double checking what it shows. The good news is the weeklies can't show the pattern any worse...can it.

 

This was funny.  You can't hand draw a map any worse than the Day 13 Euro Ens.  You know, the weeklies from last Thurs were horrid too...and we don't have john wayne bobbitt on here anymore to tell us how poor the weeklies verify.

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This was funny.  You can't hand draw a map any worse than the Day 13 Euro Ens.  You know, the weeklies from last Thurs were horrid too...and we don't have john wayne bobbitt on here anymore to tell us how poor the weeklies verify.

Can you phone the euro and tell her we are supposed to be in a nino.

Nino Lag FTL

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Severe threats always get my attention, I personally cant wait till winter is giving way to early spring, the hand wringing over the models is almost unbearable lol.....

 

My experience is that when the models are all wishy washy and we have severe threats in the winter it usually translate into a decent period of winter weather ...

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 Good news and bad news. Bad news: the Euro weeklies suck, period. They have E US ridging/-PNA as well as +NAO and +AO to the end. There's no way to sugar coat that. Now, for those who haven't turned away after that bad news, here's the good news: 18Z GFS is starting off even better than the 12Z GFS (which itself was much improved vs. the 0Z/6Z GFS) with very impressive west coast ridging at 168! Also, keep in mind that the Euro weeklies are based on the 0Z run. So, in essence they're a little outdated.

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