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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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I don't believe there was....I have looked at it here and there, as a whole it seems that its been closer to the Euro more often that not....it totally blew the East Coast pre Tday storm but otherwise I've found its tended to be better than the GFS.

Thanks. At this point I'm not treating as an advancement, per se, but instead just another model we have in the arsenal.
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Now, this run of the euro prolly wont' have a great solution for the NYD storm, but its getting there in a hurry...IMHO  The energy is likely moving too slow over the SW.  That subropical trof East of HI will NOT allow that to park itself.  We have confluence over NE, a high moving into the CAD areas, another one dropping over the Plains.  This **SHOULD** force that energy south and underneath.  I am getting a little fired up about that potential.  Not too much yet, tho.  We have a nice -EPO or close to it.  NAO is hell, whatev for now, the AO looks like its wanting to go - as well.  

 

ibz19d.jpg

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That pesky energy in the north is blocking our cold air! Looks like this run is gong to have a cold front with cold chasing moisture around NYE with something coming off of it's heels if I had to guess.

As Delta said, the real thorn is the dig in the 4 corners and heights pumping in front. Could be right, could be bias at work, hard to say. With a +nao, anything digging west of the continental divide is going to be a problem. Luckily this run has little deterministic meaning.

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As Delta said, the real thorn is the dig in the 4 corners and heights pumping in front. Could be right, could be bias at work, hard to say. With a +nao, anything digging west of the continental divide is going to be a problem. Luckily this run has little deterministic meaning.

I agree, this is a toss up to me as well, IMHO.  The +NAO does hurt us in the case, but there is a trof East of HI.  So, I know this CANT bury itself down there, but it CAN go slow enough to build the heights over the SE, and well....you don't need me to tell you what happens.  lol  I have a feeling that it will move quicker than that, but who knows right now.

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I agree, this is a toss up to me as well, IMHO. The +NAO does hurt us in the case, but there is a trof East of HI. So, I know this CANT bury itself down there, but it CAN go slow enough to build the heights over the SE, and well....you don't need me to tell you what happens. lol I have a feeling that it will move quicker than that, but who knows right now.

Spacing makes it near impossible to really get a handle on. With the se ridge trying to flex, it would go a long way to get a real cold push in first. Never makes it until d9-10 on this run. That can easily change of course but I'm not going to bite on anything until cold air is established beforehand.

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