ILMRoss Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I don't believe there was....I have looked at it here and there, as a whole it seems that its been closer to the Euro more often that not....it totally blew the East Coast pre Tday storm but otherwise I've found its tended to be better than the GFS.Thanks. At this point I'm not treating as an advancement, per se, but instead just another model we have in the arsenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12Z GEFS looking better so far. Somehow the 12z GEFS is even colder than the 6z GEFS, which was really cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The -EPO is back via the 12z GFS...everyone can back away at leas two steps from the edge of the cliff now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The -EPO is back via the 12z GFS...everyone can back away at leas two steps from the edge of the cliff now. If we can get the PNA to positive on the Euro/EPS we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 No major changes yet on the Euro. PV is slower to drop compared to the 12z PARA out to 102....let's see where she goes today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 crazy thing is, the euro could be something great if the 2 streams didn't try to phase at hr 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nice signal on the CMC-ENS at 192 for a coastal. Temps are iffy but it still looks promising. The trough setup on the CMC-ENS is essentially a split of the GEFS and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 crazy thing is, the euro could be something great if the 2 streams didn't try to phase at hr 126 Yeah, hopefully that storm does occur, even it's cutting to the OH-V, as it could create some sort of 50/50, we will need any blocking we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I wanna see that energy does on the backside. Still kind of looks like crap to me overall but we'll see if that storm can wrap up to create something for us to keep the energy in the west south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 One thing I just noticed is that you can see a big PV peaking out @156 in a better spot than the 00z had it. GFS PARA has that coming down quickly. If the Euro starts bringing that south then we will be in business on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Have feeling the Euro is going to give us something good. @168 a big nor'easter wrapping up the coast. PV dropping into a better position with energy out west starting to roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I actually think this run will be much different...I think it already is. The D7-10 will be MUCH diff..imo..lets see where the doc wants to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I actually think this run will be much different...I think it already is. The D7-10 will be MUCH diff..imo..lets see where the doc wants to go. @192 it's close....really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 @192 it's close....really close.Well it won't get it done this run for your New Years storm but its defintely a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Now, this run of the euro prolly wont' have a great solution for the NYD storm, but its getting there in a hurry...IMHO The energy is likely moving too slow over the SW. That subropical trof East of HI will NOT allow that to park itself. We have confluence over NE, a high moving into the CAD areas, another one dropping over the Plains. This **SHOULD** force that energy south and underneath. I am getting a little fired up about that potential. Not too much yet, tho. We have a nice -EPO or close to it. NAO is hell, whatev for now, the AO looks like its wanting to go - as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That pesky energy in the north is blocking our cold air! Looks like this run is gong to have a cold front with cold chasing moisture around NYE with something coming off of it's heels if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12Z Euro more +PNAish now. Much better west coast ridging. BIG baby steps in right direction taken in 12Z model consensus at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That pesky energy in the north is blocking our cold air! Looks like this run is gong to have a cold front with cold chasing moisture around NYE with something coming off of it's heels if I had to guess. As Delta said, the real thorn is the dig in the 4 corners and heights pumping in front. Could be right, could be bias at work, hard to say. With a +nao, anything digging west of the continental divide is going to be a problem. Luckily this run has little deterministic meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Euro is gonna be really close to snow @240....just my guess. Let's see if I'm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 So is winter uncancelled now? I was hoping the Snow in GSP on November 1st was not going to be the only snow we saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12Z Euro has PV returning late in run to Hudson Bay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Definitely think that energy will be coming out of the SW a bit faster than is shown. I do believe that is the bias of the Euro these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 it did look better, overall. Just not gonna get there, but its trying...Looks like its trying to have 2 close calls there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 overall pattern on 12Z euro in 6-10 looks much better with better west coast ridging and PV near Hudson bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 As Delta said, the real thorn is the dig in the 4 corners and heights pumping in front. Could be right, could be bias at work, hard to say. With a +nao, anything digging west of the continental divide is going to be a problem. Luckily this run has little deterministic meaning. I agree, this is a toss up to me as well, IMHO. The +NAO does hurt us in the case, but there is a trof East of HI. So, I know this CANT bury itself down there, but it CAN go slow enough to build the heights over the SE, and well....you don't need me to tell you what happens. lol I have a feeling that it will move quicker than that, but who knows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well the end of the run it just phases everything for a huge positively titled mess. Freezing almost down to Mexico lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I agree, this is a toss up to me as well, IMHO. The +NAO does hurt us in the case, but there is a trof East of HI. So, I know this CANT bury itself down there, but it CAN go slow enough to build the heights over the SE, and well....you don't need me to tell you what happens. lol I have a feeling that it will move quicker than that, but who knows right now. Spacing makes it near impossible to really get a handle on. With the se ridge trying to flex, it would go a long way to get a real cold push in first. Never makes it until d9-10 on this run. That can easily change of course but I'm not going to bite on anything until cold air is established beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Is anyone else here as elated as I am due to the improved overall pattern look in the 6-10+ of the 12Z consensus vs 0Z? I'm quietly kind of excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Is anyone else here as elated as I am due to the improved overall pattern look in the 6-10+ of the 12Z consensus vs 0Z? I'm quietly kind of excited. Until the 18z runs come out lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Is anyone else here as elated as I am due to the improved overall pattern look in the 6-10+ of the 12Z consensus vs 0Z? I'm quietly kind of excited. I am cautiously optimistic.... I would like to see some consistency. Right now I open the model page wondering if I am going to see Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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