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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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Win for the EPS that we all wanted to dismiss, if that ends up correct.

 

I am not wishing for this to happen, just simply reporting what the model is showing.  To much wish casting going on here.  We really need to have a thread where people can objectively discuss what is going on and another thread titled "rainbows and puppies" for all the people that want to simply say everything looks great.

 

This was a move to the Euro of the SE ridge.  Where is our Nino pattern at?  This looks like a nina to me.

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This is just sad, I don't know what your looking at.  The GFS never gets the cold to the east.   There is no bias at play here.

 

What are you talking about? Well it does get cold in the east at about hour 228...in fact at 228-252 there is a chance of winter weather in NC. What I was saying is that with a big High showing up in the 1036 - 1040 range and all that air in Canada you will end up with a look like Feb. of last year when we got that big storm. 

Not the prettiest look but not a torch either. 

avlZG0X.png

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What are you talking about? Well it does get cold in the east at about hour 228...in fact at 228-252 there is a chance of winter weather in NC. What I was saying is that with a big High showing up in the 1036 - 1040 range and all that air in Canada you will end up with a look like Feb. of last year when we got that big storm. 

Not the prettiest look but not a torch either. 

 

 

My bad, your right, solid look.

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I strongly suggest reading Robert's post from last night. He brought up exactly what the GFS is now advertising on this run with big highs coming down out of Canada.......just one run so who knows but I thought both the GFS and PARA were encouraging. Could be on crack but I'm taking this as a net positive on these runs. 

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GFS PARA...notice the PV dropping and those big highs. This is what we want to see IMO. 

 

 

This I agree with  you on, the Para looks much better than the Op GFS.  Look at the height map on SV, compare the location of the PV between the models.  Actually a hint of -NAO on the Para too, which is a world of difference on what happens.

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We all let our bias into play. Bottom line, that's why I do this as a hobby. 

 

You are correct.

 

I'm convinced that it also has a lot to do with overall board reactions in general. In reality - because many are still learning or not willing to look for themselves - lots of folk here follow the various posted opinions/interpretations regarding model runs, etc from mets and studied modelologists and learned wx wizards...

 

So what you end up with is a diverse group of people reading conflicting posts. Which by nature leads to confusion. Confusion leads to fear. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to...suffering (and presumably the Dark Side).

 

yoda.gif

 

Board meltdown and winter cancel ensues...yada yada...

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I strongly suggest reading Robert's post from last night. He brought up exactly what the GFS is now advertising on this run with big highs coming down out of Canada.......just one run so who knows but I thought both the GFS and PARA were encouraging. Could be on crack but I'm taking this as a net positive on these runs.

Yeah, it's good to still see some cold showing up. I hope we can get this solidly in the 5-10 day range and work in from there.

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I am going to stop at D7 since there is almost no point to look further right now.  Yes, its cool to look at the trends and see if we can figure out whats up.  The ridge over AK (epo) isn't bad looking.  That will help to get some highs and cold air to come down through our side of the pole and into Canada and then the US.  there is a nice Subtropical trof EAST of Hawaii, so that energy should keep moving out of the west.  The key will be can the northern branch piece kick east and NOT phase with that stuff over NV and AZ/NM/UT  If we can kick the northern piece into the country and into NE, that will keep some nice confluence, a high, and push through the front.  The southern piece would be forced south and it could work by NYD.  The look has been MUCH better so far today, but we seem to go back and forth.

 

13zbti9.png

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 Very pleased with 12Z GFS (op and para) trends vs 0Z/6Z.

yeah but still it was all in the means...500mb looks better and that's not too far off of what was expected, almost all members of the 06z was cold in the SE in days 10-15 so the OP didn't make sense. Just goes to show you shouldn't hug a run because it looks bad and jump. We'll see what the Euro says but it was never really warm at 850mb so obviously the GFS was having trouble (and still is)...

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What exactly is the difference between the para and old gfs? I know the para has higher resolution, but was anything altered such as the amount of data the para is initialized with?

 

I don't believe there was....I have looked at it here and there, as a whole it seems that its been closer to the Euro more often that not....it totally blew the East Coast pre Tday storm but otherwise I've found its tended to be better than the GFS.

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