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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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Serious question for everyone. If the GFS and Euro show cold again what do we think? Wrong or correct? Will it set minds back at ease? 

I'll start to believe it more if it starts to show the cold inside of 7 days but would really like to see something showing up at 3-4 days out. Anything past day 8 isn't worth a whole lot right now.

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12z GFS looks like it's trying to drop the PV down into central Canada hour 90.  :blink:  we'll see where it goes from there. The setup looks much better than 00z just in the short term. 

Watch it flip and everyone goes nuts...I hope so....weeklies come out soon, new seasonal runs come out today, I have a lot to do so I won't be posting much til this evening, but it will be interesting to see what the new seasonals say for January, especially weeks 2 and 3.

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That's currently where I am.  I think the GEFS has called the signal right and consistently for the last week of Dec into NY.  We'll get a bit of -AO and maybe a -NAO.  The issue is that's not turning in to a real pattern change, but only a temporary blip.  By January 3, this is what we've got.  A +AO/NAO and weak ridge out west.  What was supposed to be a pattern change, is just not proving to be a pattern change IMO. 

 

By the way I'm keeping my Oct/Nov snowstorm = winter cancel card in my wallet.  I may be able to use it later!!

 

 

 

It's definitely a pattern change from the raging pac jet/warm canada all the way through the ensembles right now. We can take some solace with that. Canada is going to be quite cold but the mechanism to deliver cold south isn't very stout. That is something that can change quickly. I can easily live with a so-so conus pattern that is only 1 step away from being good. December has been 2 steps away and has been a slow process. 

 

As long as canada stays cold and the pac doesn't go to he!! we can keep our fingers off of the Jan cancel button. 

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It's definitely a pattern change from the raging pac jet/warm canada all the way through the ensembles right now. We can take some solace with that. Canada is going to be quite cold but the mechanism to deliver cold south isn't very stout. That is something that can change quickly. I can easily live with a so-so conus pattern that is only 1 step away from being good. December has been 2 steps away and has been a slow process. 

 

As long as canada stays cold and the pac doesn't go to he!! we can keep our fingers off of the Jan cancel button.

This is a great point and often overlooked.

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The way the models keep going back and forth trying to get a handle on what might happen for the last couple of months this is probably going to be a year when we probably are not going to have much time to track a potential system. The models may not look to promising in the mid to long range but, I think there will be a couple of systems this year at least that just show up within a 3-5 day period and catch most by surprise.

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The way the models keep going back and forth trying to get a handle on what might happen for the last couple of months this is probably going to be a year when we probably are not going to have much time to track a potential system. The models may not look to promising in the mid to long range but, I think there will be a couple of systems this year at least that just show up within a 3-5 day period and catch most by surprise.

Truth be told, this is generally how most of our events are in transient patterns.  The ENS sadly do not show any pattern "locking" in at this point.

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@180 GFS has the west cold...looks like it's moving east. Nothing to kick that system out of the west so it's just sitting there chilling. I'm willing to bet this run won't be nearly as ugly in the LR. Just my guess. 

 

 

This looks terrible, no other words for it.  

 

It's not hard to see why so much confusion exists amidst the forum.

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GFS has huge highs dropping out of central Canada into the middle of the country. So does the GFS PARA. That's what we really need much like Feb. of last year. Give me a 1040 high and some moisture and don't care how big the SE ridge looks on a model I'll take it. 

 

This is just sad, I don't know what your looking at.  The GFS never gets the cold to the east.   There is no bias at play here.

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