jshetley Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Serious question for everyone. If the GFS and Euro show cold again what do we think? Wrong or correct? Will it set minds back at ease? I'll start to believe it more if it starts to show the cold inside of 7 days but would really like to see something showing up at 3-4 days out. Anything past day 8 isn't worth a whole lot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z GFS looks like it's trying to drop the PV down into central Canada hour 90. we'll see where it goes from there. The setup looks much better than 00z just in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z GFS looks like it's trying to drop the PV down into central Canada hour 90. we'll see where it goes from there. The setup looks much better than 00z just in the short term. Watch it flip and everyone goes nuts...I hope so....weeklies come out soon, new seasonal runs come out today, I have a lot to do so I won't be posting much til this evening, but it will be interesting to see what the new seasonals say for January, especially weeks 2 and 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That's currently where I am. I think the GEFS has called the signal right and consistently for the last week of Dec into NY. We'll get a bit of -AO and maybe a -NAO. The issue is that's not turning in to a real pattern change, but only a temporary blip. By January 3, this is what we've got. A +AO/NAO and weak ridge out west. What was supposed to be a pattern change, is just not proving to be a pattern change IMO. By the way I'm keeping my Oct/Nov snowstorm = winter cancel card in my wallet. I may be able to use it later!! It's definitely a pattern change from the raging pac jet/warm canada all the way through the ensembles right now. We can take some solace with that. Canada is going to be quite cold but the mechanism to deliver cold south isn't very stout. That is something that can change quickly. I can easily live with a so-so conus pattern that is only 1 step away from being good. December has been 2 steps away and has been a slow process. As long as canada stays cold and the pac doesn't go to he!! we can keep our fingers off of the Jan cancel button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's definitely a pattern change from the raging pac jet/warm canada all the way through the ensembles right now. We can take some solace with that. Canada is going to be quite cold but the mechanism to deliver cold south isn't very stout. That is something that can change quickly. I can easily live with a so-so conus pattern that is only 1 step away from being good. December has been 2 steps away and has been a slow process. As long as canada stays cold and the pac doesn't go to he!! we can keep our fingers off of the Jan cancel button. This is a great point and often overlooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This run looks much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 BTW...CR and others, did anyone look at the 850mb temps for the GEFS 06z for days 10-15? Not exactly a warm look. Mean: Members...I would take most of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Fwiw, the 12Z GFS is starting off a good bit better off both coasts as of day 5+. Let's see where it leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12Z GFS: Liking how this run's changes are looking so far! Could get very interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'll take what the GFS selling in the medium range. 1028 high coming down with cold air in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Thanks for the updates guys, at work and don't have model access atm. Glad to see the GFS is looking better. Hopefully people are stepping back from the cliff. -AO still looks good on that map Delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 BTW...CR and others, did anyone look at the 850mb temps for the GEFS 06z for days 10-15? Not exactly a warm look. I did not. That looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Cold is modulating....but you've got a 1032 high coming into the Dakotas and a big 1040 high in western Canada. We badly need those big highs to start coming down and funneling in that cold Canadian air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wow @162 huge PV dropping into Canada and energy out west coming out the pipe. This could get some fireworks going. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The way the models keep going back and forth trying to get a handle on what might happen for the last couple of months this is probably going to be a year when we probably are not going to have much time to track a potential system. The models may not look to promising in the mid to long range but, I think there will be a couple of systems this year at least that just show up within a 3-5 day period and catch most by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks very Euro like at 180, SE ridge is stronger, whatever happens on day 8 will cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 @180 GFS has the west cold...looks like it's moving east. Nothing to kick that system out of the west so it's just sitting there chilling. I'm willing to bet this run won't be nearly as ugly in the LR. Just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This looks terrible, no other words for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks very Euro like at 180, SE ridge is stronger, whatever happens on day 8 will cut Except there is nothing really to cut lol. You're gonna see a big cold front and then GFS is going to put the east in the freezer at 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Trough east of Hawaii it will have to kick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The way the models keep going back and forth trying to get a handle on what might happen for the last couple of months this is probably going to be a year when we probably are not going to have much time to track a potential system. The models may not look to promising in the mid to long range but, I think there will be a couple of systems this year at least that just show up within a 3-5 day period and catch most by surprise. Truth be told, this is generally how most of our events are in transient patterns. The ENS sadly do not show any pattern "locking" in at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 @180 GFS has the west cold...looks like it's moving east. Nothing to kick that system out of the west so it's just sitting there chilling. I'm willing to bet this run won't be nearly as ugly in the LR. Just my guess. This looks terrible, no other words for it. It's not hard to see why so much confusion exists amidst the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Except there is nothing really to cut lol. You're gonna see a big cold front and then GFS is going to put the east in the freezer at 200. Will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's not hard to see why so much confusion exists amidst the forum. We all let our bias into play. Bottom line, that's why I do this as a hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Through the 30th, CLT doesn't go below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS has huge highs dropping out of central Canada into the middle of the country. So does the GFS PARA. That's what we really need much like Feb. of last year. Give me a 1040 high and some moisture and don't care how big the SE ridge looks on a model I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Trough east of Hawaii it will have to kick east. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS has huge highs dropping out of central Canada into the middle of the country. So does the GFS PARA. That's what we really need much like Feb. of last year. Give me a 1040 high and some moisture and don't care how big the SE ridge looks on a model I'll take it. This is just sad, I don't know what your looking at. The GFS never gets the cold to the east. There is no bias at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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