Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II

[burgertime]

 Those being 2 most recent runs.  And both 12z and 6z showing much different solutions.  Including the ensembles, IMO it does hold some weight.   Hope I'm wrong though

 

 

Key word being some. You have to weight it with everything else. Again if we see 12z, 00z, and 12z tomorrow holding the same solution I think it might be time to panic. Right now we just have basically one set of runs. Only thing that has me a little worried is the fact that PARA locked on to this the last couple of days....outside of that I don't understand the worry from everyone. Let's be a little patient. 

[Hvward]

OK let's step back a little people. I just looked at composite archives. Since Dec 16th the models have consistently shown cold coming into the east in the LR. So basically we have just one run set of runs out of 5 days. Panic much? I do believe anything is on the table but we have to look at actual trends. We need another few runs to make this a real trend. Models always struggle with a pattern change this is no different. Again personally I'm not worried much about last nights runs.

Agreed, it is like a funeral in here over 1-2 runs? Can you imagine if we get a big storm to track and the models lose it for a day, how many will jump ship? If the look holds for the next few days then I understand the pessimist comments but some of the talk now is unnecessary. I am not necessarily saying the current trend is wrong, but lets not give up on winter because of 1-2 model runs.

[FallsLake]

Key word being some. You have to weight it with everything else. Again if we see 12z, 00z, and 12z tomorrow holding the same solution I think it might be time to panic. Right now we just have basically one set of runs. Only thing that has me a little worried is the fact that PARA locked on to this the last couple of days....outside of that I don't understand the worry from everyone. Let's be a little patient. 

Even if this pattern change is not going to happen (right now) it doesn't mean we get blanked for the whole winter. If memory is right, the 2000 Carolina crusher came after a warm start to January. If we're looking for wall to wall cold for January and February then I would be getting close to the cliff.  

[burgertime]

Agreed, it is like a funeral in here over 1-2 runs? Can you imagine if we get a big storm to track and the models lose it for a day, how many will jump ship? If the look holds for the next few days then I understand the pessimist comments but some of the talk now is unnecessary. I am not necessarily saying the current trend is wrong, but lets not give up on winter because of 1-2 model runs.

 

I don't buy a warm Jan. Much like I didn't buy a total torch in Dec. when the models were showing it in the LR.  Pattern is a lot like last year. This happened a lot last year as well IRRC. Lot's of model madness going on but when the models really locked into a pattern change it tended to happen. 

[Cold Rain]

Just curious, what makes the models from last night more correct than those same models 4-6 days in a row showing the total opposite? I just don't get it.

This was what I said about that:

And before anyone jumps on me about this being only one or two suites of model runs, I understand that. That's less important to me than the trends. The trends have been disagreement on the coming pattern change AND for the pattern change to be delayed. That is the basis supporting my view.

I am not negative on the whole winter. We will get at least a 1 or 2 week stretch of cold and wintry weather, probably much more. But starting in December, we were seeing signs of the pattern changing by 12/20ish. That got knocked back to Christmas. Then New Years. My point is, this: I don't think a change to a sustained cold and wintry pattern is going to come out of the blue and just show up 48 hours out in the guidance. We look at the big features like EPO, PNA, and AO. *Usually* when blocking is going to become established, models start to converge on it in the LR and keep it. We haven't seen that consistent convergence yet. We might start to see that. We might not. My feeling is, until we see the Euro, GFS, and CMC start to agree on these features and general ridge and trough placements in a consistent fashion, we're going to be chasing ghosts.

A great cold pattern isn't going to sneak up on us. A snowstorm might, but not a great cold pattern. I don't recall sustained cold (or warm) patterns just showing up all of a sudden two or three days out and then coming to fruition. I do recall plenty of modeled cold patterns getting pushed back and/or not developing. Plenty. When that happens, it usually happens the way we're seeing the current situation unfold. That's all I'm saying.

[packbacker]

I don't buy a warm Jan. Much like I didn't buy a total torch in Dec. when the models were showing it in the LR.  Pattern is a lot like last year. This happened a lot last year as well IRRC. Lot's of model madness going on but when the models really locked into a pattern change it tended to happen.

Which model did better for the Nov pattern? I don't recall except they both struggled, I thought.

[nchighcountrywx]

Anytime there is broad disagreement between models regarding a pattern change, that's a red flag. Anytime the change keeps getting pushed back or seems to morph into some other variation, that's a red flag. The ensembles have looked good up until now. Now, not so much. Red flag.

Here are the ENS for the GFS (0z and 6z) and Euro below. What a change from a couple days ago:

0z GEFS at 240 (this is basically part of a 3 day cold period during which we could maybe eek out a winter storm):

0zGEFS240.png

Here's the 0z GEFS at 384 (there is nothing impressive about this map at all):

0zGEFS384.png

Here's the 6z GEFS at 240 (again, maybe during this transient cold shot, we could get lucky):

6zGEFS240.png

6z GEFS at 384 (you could draw a worse map, but why bother -- this one's bad enough):

6zGEFS384.png

Lastly, here's the Euro at 240 (Advance Cliff tix go on sale at 10:00 am ET 1/1/2015):

0zEPS240.png

Summary, no change to a colder pattern is imminent, and there is no evidence within the numerical guidance to suggest one is coming. If we want to throw in some hope, luck, statistics, analogs, seasonal modeling, SSWs, SAIs, and persimmon seeds, then it's a different story maybe.

December will go in the books as a fail. We didn't even make it over mid field with the ball. We're going to start out January deep in our own territory.

And before anyone jumps on me about this being only one or two suites of model runs, I understand that. That's less important to me than the trends. The trends have been disagreement on the coming pattern change AND for the pattern change to be delayed. That is the basis supporting my view.

I know that statistics and analogs say that things will soon turn around. But that's just educated guessing (not a bad approach), and no data that we can currently "see" is suggesting a great cold and snowy pattern is coming within the next couple of weeks. That doesn't mean the models won't start showing and agreeing on a change. But until that consistently happens and stops getting pushed back in time, there's no good reason to believe we get colder soon, other than hope.

Good post.

The analog based wall to wall cold winter has obviously been off the table for some time now.

Unfortunately we can not torch (as in December) and still not get snow.

It would not surprise me to get just run of the mill cold with hopes for a thread the needle storm.

[burgertime]

This was what I said about that:

And before anyone jumps on me about this being only one or two suites of model runs, I understand that. That's less important to me than the trends. The trends have been disagreement on the coming pattern change AND for the pattern change to be delayed. That is the basis supporting my view.

I am not negative on the whole winter. We will get at least a 1 or 2 week stretch of cold and wintry weather, probably much more. But starting in December, we were seeing signs of the pattern changing by 12/20ish. That got knocked back to Christmas. Then New Years. My point is, this: I don't think a change to a sustained cold and wintry pattern is going to come out of the blue and just show up 48 hours out in the guidance. We look at the big features like EPO, PNA, and AO. *Usually* when blocking is going to become established, models start to converge on it in the LR and keep it. We haven't seen that consistent convergence yet. We might start to see that. We might not. My feeling is, until we see the Euro, GFS, and CMC start to agree on these features and general ridge and trough placements in a consistent fashion, we're going to be chasing ghosts.

A great cold pattern isn't going to sneak up on us. A snowstorm might, but not a great cold pattern. I don't recall sustained cold (or warm) patterns just showing up all of a sudden two or three days out and then coming to fruition. I do recall plenty of modeled cold patterns getting pushed back and/or not developing. Plenty. When that happens, it usually happens the way we're seeing the current situation unfold. That's all I'm saying.

 

The problem is 1 or 2 isn't a trend in the face of 25 model runs. I just don't know how you jump to the conclusion it's a trend......I guess technically anything more than once is a "trend".  I also totally disagree with your assessment here. This is exactly what we've seen. The models have locked on the past 5 days. What more of a lock do you need? We see this every freaking winter, big pattern change is shown and models locked on but due to there being 4 runs a day (specifically on the GFS) we see hiccups and opposites from time to time. Same thing happened in November with the big cold showing. 

[Bob Chill]

Key word being some. You have to weight it with everything else. Again if we see 12z, 00z, and 12z tomorrow holding the same solution I think it might be time to panic. Right now we just have basically one set of runs. Only thing that has me a little worried is the fact that PARA locked on to this the last couple of days....outside of that I don't understand the worry from everyone. Let's be a little patient. 

 

I think some concern is more than warranted. The changes haven't really happened overnight. It's been a process. 4+ days ago we we're all kinda excited that the xmas storm was going to pump up some stout ridging over greenland. Safe to say that's becoming unlikely. Then we focused on the -epo ridge being the driver but the strength and duration of that has faded on guidance the last couple days. It will happen to some degree though and it could work out for cold and snow in the east but without any blocking to slow down the flow, it's hard to be confident in any specific threat until med-short leads. 

 

The big changes in the euro ens from 12z to 0z start showing up at d7-8. I hope it's a blip like everyone else but hard to ignore. Especially since we aren't talking d10+. The euro has building on the SE ridge idea the last few days as well and now shows pretty much an anomalous +AO on the means. 

 

I'm pretty optimistic by nature but I don't see the latest guidance as some sort of sudden blip. The bad ideas have been creeping in steadily. With that being said, I do think there will be some opportunity in the near future. But I don't think we're moving into an extended favorable pattern. We need some cooperation from the AO at some point. Just not happening yet it seems. 

[deltadog03]

I can honestly see everyones point.  IMO there is some cause for concern, but do I think its time to jump off the cliff?  oh HELL no!  The pattern change is coming, is it being delayed again??  It might...that could be what the models are trying to tell us.  The pattern will flip, I FULLY believe that.  I think it really sucks that they are flopping all over the place like a fish out of water.  IMO its going to happen, its only a matter of time when.  Hell, maybe this gets pushed back to the middle of JAN??

[burgertime]

Bob let me reiterate I by no means think these models should be ignored....but it seems like many are jumping from one extreme conclusion to another extreme. IMO and it's only opinion we need to give a few more days before jumping ship. FTR I never really bought into that big bomb going into the lakes like models were showing...even that is funny though with some mets saying it would hurt a -NAO if it happened and others saying we needed it to reinforce the -NAO. Call intuition or whatever but I just don't see the need to panic at this moment from a 00z and 6z run seeing a different solution in the LR with multiple runs in a day it's just statistics you'll get a different solution getting latched on to. It happens every winter when there is a pattern change being shown. Ultimately time will tell but again I won't be worried until we get a few more runs showing the same solution. 

[metwannabe]

I can honestly see everyones point. IMO there is some cause for concern, but do I think its time to jump off the cliff? oh HELL no! The pattern change is coming, is it being delayed again?? It might...that could be what the models are trying to tell us. The pattern will flip, I FULLY believe that. I think it really sucks that they are flopping all over the place like a fish out of water. IMO its going to happen, its only a matter of time when. Hell, maybe this gets pushed back to the middle of JAN??

I don't get people looking for a great cold pattern . It's the south how many great cold patterns have had over the years?? Most of the time we score on the front end or back end of a pattern change anyway. The hunt for a great pattern is silly IMo.

my friend in Birmingham Alabama had almost ten inches in Birmingham Alabama last year witha +NAO .

[burgertime]

Serious question for everyone. If the GFS and Euro show cold again what do we think? Wrong or correct? Will it set minds back at ease? 

[NCSNOW]

While waiting on the AO and NAO to cooperate, to me just keeping the PNA positive and not tanking into the negative range is the one signal to keep an eye on in the LR. If it starts showing up negative for long stretches it want be pretty around here.

Anyway I'm still sticking to my guns for above normal snowfall this year for my area. Sitting here at 35 degrees with rain, windchill of 26, high tomorrow is suposetobe 41. Be pretty cool is around the ole by the past several days.

[Cold Rain]

The problem is 1 or 2 isn't a trend in the face of 25 model runs. I just don't know how you jump to the conclusion it's a trend......I guess technically anything more than once is a "trend".  I also totally disagree with your assessment here. This is exactly what we've seen. The models have locked on the past 5 days. What more of a lock do you need? We see this every freaking winter, big pattern change is shown and models locked on but due to there being 4 runs a day (specifically on the GFS) we see hiccups and opposites from time to time. Same thing happened in November with the big cold showing.

We just may see it differently. The trend is, we have been watching the models show cold in the LR for basically the entire month. It's not cold. It doesn't look to be cold until a transient shot moves through around Christmas.

Here is what I mean:

6z GEFS run on 12/12 valid 12z 12/25:

6z GEFS run on 12/22 valid 2z 12/25 (slight difference):

6z GEFS run on 12/12 valid 6z 12/28 (the end of that run):

6z GEFS run on 12/22 valid 6z 12/28:

I chose the 6z 12/12 GEFS because that's the farthest back in time I could look on Tropical Tidbits.

The pattern change has definitely gotten pushed back. That's what is concerning to me. The recent run might be wrong at 240, but it's probably pretty close for what it's showing for Christmas. But, finally around 240 (another 10 days) it shows a fairly favorable pattern. That may be correct, but it's less likely to be correct at 240 than at 168 or 144 or 120 or 96, and none of those periods are showing a cold SE winter pattern. So in my view, we're still 10 days away, at least.

Again, I don't think winter is over or will never start. I just don't think it's going to start in the next 10 days. And if the pattern change keeps getting pushed back and/or we keep having these runs where nothing is similar to the last run, a change to a cold pattern is no more likely than a change to a warm one. Might as well flip a coin.

[Bob Chill]

Bob let me reiterate I by no means think these models should be ignored....but it seems like many are jumping from one extreme conclusion to another extreme. IMO and it's only opinion we need to give a few more days before jumping ship. FTR I never really bought into that big bomb going into the lakes like models were showing...even that is funny though with some mets saying it would hurt a -NAO if it happened and others saying we needed it to reinforce the -NAO. Call intuition or whatever but I just don't see the need to panic at this moment from a 00z and 6z run seeing a different solution in the LR with multiple runs in a day it's just statistics you'll get a different solution getting latched on to. It happens every winter when there is a pattern change being shown. Ultimately time will tell but again I won't be worried until we get a few more runs showing the same solution. 

 

I think there are 2 different issues at hand and that leads to some of jumpy conclusions. A window of opportunity does seem locked in and would most likely consist of 2-3 precip events given the tight spacing we've seen. I'm hoping for the best there. The other side of the concerns is the longer range prospects for a favorable and stable pattern. I haven't really seen that since the -nao idea went away. 

 

I'm most concerned about the AO. As others have stated multiple times, we don't need a SSW for a -AO. I personally hate chasing SSWs because that almost always means we are in a crappy pattern looking for a way out. Dec is looking to finish + on the means and now Jan may start with an anomalous +AO. Did anyone really expect this? I didn't. Seems like this year is bucking the SAI/SCE to some extent. 

[franklin NCwx]

Now it looks like the pattern Changet to a -ao epo is brief. Again, the pattern has changed. It does not mean snow in your backyard so people need to remember that.

[burgertime]

I think there are 2 different issues at hand and that leads to some of jumpy conclusions. A window of opportunity does seem locked in and would most likely consist of 2-3 precip events given the tight spacing we've seen. I'm hoping for the best there. The other side of the concerns is the longer range prospects for a favorable and stable pattern. I haven't really seen that since the -nao idea went away. 

 

I'm most concerned about the AO. As others have stated multiple times, we don't need a SSW for a -AO. I personally hate chasing SSWs because that almost always means we are in a crappy pattern looking for a way out. Dec is looking to finish + on the means and now Jan may start with an anomalous +AO. Did anyone really expect this? I didn't. Seems like this year is bucking the SAI/SCE to some extent. 

 

I def. agree with you on that. If we start chasing SSW's we're in a lot of trouble. I also agree we need a -AO  or a really positive +PNA just for the south. Ha, I guess I have to accept I'm carrying the torch for the dreamers this winter. 

[Cold Rain]

I don't get people looking for a great cold pattern . It's the south how many great cold patterns have had over the years?? Most of the time we score on the front end or back end of a pattern change anyway. The hunt for a great pattern is silly IMo.

my friend in Birmingham Alabama had almost ten inches in Birmingham Alabama last year witha +NAO .

 

Looking for a +PNA and a -AO are wise things to look for if you like colder than normal. Yeah it's the south and we're not going to have severe cold all the time. But personally, I prefer a colder than normal pattern that's favorably aligned in order to maximize snow potential. But yeah, we can get a storm in a bad pattern...it's just harder.

 

Serious question for everyone. If the GFS and Euro show cold again what do we think? Wrong or correct? Will it set minds back at ease?

Not really for me. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather see that than a blazing SE ridge. But I'm not going to rest easy until we see some consistency across the board working well inside of 10 days.

Bob,

Good post. Not cliff diving by any means, but concern for a genuine change to a colder pattern in the near term is pretty valid, I think.

[Jon]

Serious question for everyone. If the GFS and Euro show cold again what do we think? Wrong or correct? Will it set minds back at ease? 

Correct. But you know where I stand. My thoughts is it might take them a little longer to get back to the colder look, but it doesn't mean it won't come. The verification scores for both models in the north hemi at 500mb are mediocre recently at Day 6, borderline horrible Day 8, and we're looking at Day 10+...They could have been wrong the whole time sure. All the seasonal models, even from China and Japan, could have been wrong. But no, I don't think there's a trend for a torch...what it could not be understanding is yet another pattern change somewhere. What that is, I don't know...but there's a reason for the model chaos that far out. I agree with others there's little reason to think we'll lock into a cold and stormy pattern for all of January as a month, so maybe the models are trying to figure it out. The maps past 240 or even earlier on some of these runs just don't make sense to me at all, it's like the new CFS and I posted about why that didn't make sense to me...some of these runs put ridges where there should be troughs, etc. I'm not buying it. It's literally giving the whole globe a wide spread out ridges.

[burgertime]

Well on the GFS...it keeps it up Chris may be right and someone in TN or KY might end up with a closed low rolling through. @30 there is more separation in the streams. Nothing to stop the liftoff from happening though. That energy aint staying south. 

[franklin NCwx]

I think the main reason for the se ridge is the models mjo forecast. There are conflictin signals right now.

[deltadog03]

Serious question for everyone. If the GFS and Euro show cold again what do we think? Wrong or correct? Will it set minds back at ease? 

Honestly I just continue to think the pattern change is coming.  I think it allows for a little confidence, but not much.  I guess its going to depend on what everyone thinks.  I DO think the pattern is changing, so it would help to see more good runs of the OP, but more importantly *IMO* the ENS need to show it.  We have had equal, or almost equal crap runs vs good runs.  IMO 

[packbacker]

Looking for a +PNA and a -AO are wise things to look for if you like colder than normal. Yeah it's the south and we're not going to have severe cold all the time. But personally, I prefer a colder than normal pattern that's favorably aligned in order to maximize snow potential. But yeah, we can get a storm in a bad pattern...it's just harder. Not really for me. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather see that than a blazing SE ridge. But I'm not going to rest easy until we see some consistency across the board working well inside of 10 days.Bob,Good post. Not cliff diving by any means, but concern for a genuine change to a colder pattern in the near term is pretty valid, I think.

If the euro is right we don't get cold. I think alot of people on here just assume the GEFS is right. If the EPS is right not only do we not get cold the pattern goes really bad in the LR and will take us some time to get out of. I don't know which model is right, nobody knows.

[franklin NCwx]

If the euro is right we don't get cold. I think alot of people on here just assume the GEFS is right. If the EPS is right not only do we not get cold the pattern goes really bad in the LR and will take us some time to get out of. I don't know which model is right, nobody knows.

what if the answer is in the middle like the cmc?

[Cold Rain]

If the euro is right we don't get cold. I think alot of people on here just assume the GEFS is right. If the EPS is right not only do we not get cold the pattern goes really bad in the LR and will take us some time to get out of. I don't know which model is right, nobody knows.

We really do need to get that -AO going soon.

[SnowNiner]

I think there are 2 different issues at hand and that leads to some of jumpy conclusions. A window of opportunity does seem locked in and would most likely consist of 2-3 precip events given the tight spacing we've seen. I'm hoping for the best there. The other side of the concerns is the longer range prospects for a favorable and stable pattern. I haven't really seen that since the -nao idea went away. 

 

I'm most concerned about the AO. As others have stated multiple times, we don't need a SSW for a -AO. I personally hate chasing SSWs because that almost always means we are in a crappy pattern looking for a way out. Dec is looking to finish + on the means and now Jan may start with an anomalous +AO. Did anyone really expect this? I didn't. Seems like this year is bucking the SAI/SCE to some extent. 

 

That's currently where I am.  I think the GEFS has called the signal right and consistently for the last week of Dec into NY.  We'll get a bit of -AO and maybe a -NAO.  The issue is that's not turning in to a real pattern change, but only a temporary blip.  By January 3, this is what we've got.  A +AO/NAO and weak ridge out west.  What was supposed to be a pattern change, is just not proving to be a pattern change IMO. 

 

By the way I'm keeping my Oct/Nov snowstorm = winter cancel card in my wallet.  I may be able to use it later!!

 

[franklin NCwx]

Soi is crashing!

[burgertime]

what if the answer is in the middle like the cmc?

 

That's probably the most likely solution. If so I think that's very good for NC and upstate...going to be border line for folks in GA more than likely. 

[deltadog03]

Correct. But you know where I stand. My thoughts is it might take them a little longer to get back to the colder look, but it doesn't mean it won't come. The verification scores for both models in the north hemi at 500mb are mediocre recently at Day 6, borderline horrible Day 8, and we're looking at Day 10+...They could have been wrong the whole time sure. All the seasonal models, even from China and Japan, could have been wrong. But no, I don't think there's a trend for a torch...what it could not be understanding is yet another pattern change somewhere. What that is, I don't know...but there's a reason for the model chaos that far out. I agree with others there's little reason to think we'll lock into a cold and stormy pattern for all of January as a month, so maybe the models are trying to figure it out. The maps past 240 or even earlier on some of these runs just don't make sense to me at all, it's like the new CFS and I posted about why that didn't make sense to me...some of these runs put ridges where there should be troughs, etc. I'm not buying it. It's literally giving the whole globe a wide spread out ridges.

Thats a great point.  EVERY model has been wrong this year so far.  The king has damn sure struggled.  The JMA, JB loves that has been awful at times.  the CFS has been AWFUL at times.