WidreMann Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Other than the myocardial infarction I'm OK... I think the GFS ingested some bad data. No trend to be had, I must see the ensembles!!!I think people need to stop looking at the GFS past 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Many of you folks know this but ops useful range is only 5-6 days or so. Beyond that the skill decreases drastically. About as good as a single ensemble member. I see everyone trashing the para but imo it's pretty good at 5 days. Thats what ops are designed for. The higher resolution causes initial condition errors to get larger quicker as you go out in time. This is probably why the old gfs seems decent at longer ranges. Lower resolution helps to not magnify errors in time but the tradeoff is not doing as well at shorter leads. Seeing the old gfs tonight make a big swing in the lr is hardly shocking. It looks like some of theind ensemble solutions over the last day or so. IMO- with no stable features locked in (other than a -epo), op runs beyond 5-6 days offer little insight to sensible wx other than a possibility but not a probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 0Z GEFS is also coming in warmer than recent GEFS though not to the same degree, of course. I wonder how much the much warmer op. run is weighting the mean change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm Sure it's having a big influence on it Larry. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 0Z GEFS is also coming in warmer than recent GEFS though but not to the same degree, of course. I wonder how much the much warmer op. run is weighting the mean change. Its slightly warmer but the mean has been going back and forth anyway. The good news is the GEFS mean looks nothing like the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 00z Para GFS seemed to have a winter storm for at least the western half of NC around D9. FWIW... Rain to snow... if the cold moved in as fast as it did at the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It keeps the -AO, -NAO, +PNA in the LR and somewhat of a -EPO, but somehow torches over the US? Yeah I think we all know this run is bogus. Just look after hour 300 500mb anomalies and tell me how that look even makes sense. Let's just put ridges everywhere, GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Many of you folks know this but ops useful range is only 5-6 days or so. Beyond that the skill decreases drastically. About as good as a single ensemble member. I see everyone trashing the para but imo it's pretty good at 5 days. Thats what ops are designed for. The higher resolution causes initial condition errors to get larger quicker as you go out in time. This is probably why the old gfs seems decent at longer ranges. Lower resolution helps to not magnify errors in time but the tradeoff is not doing as well at shorter leads. Seeing the old gfs tonight make a big swing in the lr is hardly shocking. It looks like some of theind ensemble solutions over the last day or so. IMO- with no stable features locked in (other than a -epo), op runs beyond 5-6 days offer little insight to sensible wx other than a possibility but not a probability. Always love your posts whenever you come to this subforum. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Oh man, 00z flipped the table on us yet again on December 28/29 period. Instead of East Coast trough from 12z run, we got a massive one west of Rockies this time around and ridge building up over us. NAO doesn't look too hot either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 00z Euro isn't too exciting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 6z GFS is also warm(ish). Basically it is a continuation of the December pattern. Doesn't look like a torch but most will average at least slightly above normal. It looks like CAD areas will see the chance of the coolest temps just like we've seen the last month; but nothing wintery. If this verifies(and continues a little farther into January) we are probably looking at an overall warm winter; but remember even in warm winters there tends to be a cold period in late January into early February. Just like there is usually a thaw in the cold winters. The bad thing about this is then our hopes will fall on a two to three week period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Good to see the models took a step backwards last night lol. One thing to remember is that as Robert pointed out when you have 4 runs in a day you're bound to get some changes here there. The fact is we have had way more runs with cold coming then with a torch. We'll see where it goes but I'm not too worried at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Having the GFS coming around to the Euro, has to be concerning, whether it's 7-9 days out or not! Does the fact that the Christmas "bomb" is not as strong, mean the pattern won't be as shuffled and thus , not as cold of a look?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 6z GFS is also warm(ish). Basically it is a continuation of the December pattern. Doesn't look like a torch but most will average at least slightly above normal. It looks like CAD areas will see the chance of the coolest temps just like we've seen the last month; but nothing wintery. If this verifies(and continues a little farther into January) we are probably looking at an overall warm winter; but remember even in warm winters there tends to be a cold period in late January into early February. Just like there is usually a thaw in the cold winters. The bad thing about this is then our hopes will fall on a two to three week period. The GEFS looked the same to me as the previous runs, the EPS looked the same, where does the trough setup is the question. JB had a long video on it this morning, he is a EPS hugger but is questioning what it's doing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The cmc is in the middle with a coast to coast trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I can understand the negativity with the model runs from last night, but would someone explain to me with better maps (I am using ewall) what the Euro shows at 192? From my eyes looks close to something wintry for the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I can understand the negativity with the model runs from last night, but would someone explain to me with better maps (I am using ewall) what the Euro shows at 192? From my eyes looks close to something wintry for the Carolinas Cold air in, moisture leaving. Whoosh! Maybe some rain to snow for a lucky few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I can understand the negativity with the model runs from last night, but would someone explain to me with better maps (I am using ewall) what the Euro shows at 192? From my eyes looks close to something wintry for the Carolinas http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The cmc is in the middle with a coast to coast trough. Yep...but still with the CMC-Ens it would probably be a bunch of apps runners, which if it sneaked enough east might still be good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I won't lie, a little punch to the gut to see the signs/trends in not just the op but the ensembles as well. The key, imo, the driver right now HAS to be the EPO. That will help the AO. Euro and gfs and the ensembles are just not cutting it and not holding anything up that way at all. So basically no ridge near and over Alaska. Also means no Arctic air and no disruptions of the PV. I truly still think the pattern change is coming, but this has me a little concerned. NOT a lot yet tho, so don't jump yet. Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Anytime there is broad disagreement between models regarding a pattern change, that's a red flag. Anytime the change keeps getting pushed back or seems to morph into some other variation, that's a red flag. The ensembles have looked good up until now. Now, not so much. Red flag. Here are the ENS for the GFS (0z and 6z) and Euro below. What a change from a couple days ago: 0z GEFS at 240 (this is basically part of a 3 day cold period during which we could maybe eek out a winter storm): Here's the 0z GEFS at 384 (there is nothing impressive about this map at all): Here's the 6z GEFS at 240 (again, maybe during this transient cold shot, we could get lucky): 6z GEFS at 384 (you could draw a worse map, but why bother -- this one's bad enough): Lastly, here's the Euro at 240 (Advance Cliff tix go on sale at 10:00 am ET 1/1/2015): Summary, no change to a colder pattern is imminent, and there is no evidence within the numerical guidance to suggest one is coming. If we want to throw in some hope, luck, statistics, analogs, seasonal modeling, SSWs, SAIs, and persimmon seeds, then it's a different story maybe. December will go in the books as a fail. We didn't even make it over mid field with the ball. We're going to start out January deep in our own territory. And before anyone jumps on me about this being only one or two suites of model runs, I understand that. That's less important to me than the trends. The trends have been disagreement on the coming pattern change AND for the pattern change to be delayed. That is the basis supporting my view. I know that statistics and analogs say that things will soon turn around. But that's just educated guessing (not a bad approach), and no data that we can currently "see" is suggesting a great cold and snowy pattern is coming within the next couple of weeks. That doesn't mean the models won't start showing and agreeing on a change. But until that consistently happens and stops getting pushed back in time, there's no good reason to believe we get colder soon, other than hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think we need to start seeing some signs of change next week and the first week of January, though. Yes, we could still end up with a big storm anytime between now and March. But I think if we don't really see some changes soon and something real to track inside 7 days when we get to the first week of January, time is going to start running out, and those hopes of having multiple events are going to start going away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Great post cold rain and brick I agree. I still think the ensembles and the op runs are going to struggle for the next couple of days maybe weeks. But I don't like some of the changes seen the last day Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just looking at the 6z GFS 2m temps, there would not be any kind of torch (especially CAD areas). I would dare say that day 7 onward could even average a little below normal. Definitely no snow threats. We would continue our December pattern. Now if this pattern continues, we could still get something wintery as average temps continue to fall through January. Again the biggest wintery threats would be to CAD areas and most likely ice would predominate(as the threat). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 OK let's step back a little people. I just looked at composite archives. Since Dec 16th the models have consistently shown cold coming into the east in the LR. So basically we have just one run set of runs out of 5 days. Panic much? I do believe anything is on the table but we have to look at actual trends. We need another few runs to make this a real trend. Models always struggle with a pattern change this is no different. Again personally I'm not worried much about last nights runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Summary, no change to a colder pattern is imminent, and there is no evidence within the numerical guidance to suggest one is coming. If we want to throw in some hope, luck, statistics, analogs, seasonal modeling, SSWs, SAIs, and persimmon seeds, then it's a different story maybe. Just curious, what makes the models from last night more correct than those same models 4-6 days in a row showing the total opposite? I just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just curious, what makes the models from last night more correct than those same models 4-6 days in a row showing the total opposite? I just don't get it. It brought them all back to reality btw......I love persimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hey everyone, I just want to clarify my comments that I made. I'm not jumping off the bandwagon at all, I absolutely think the pattern changes coming, it just makes for a very low confidence forecast even in the short to medium range when you're talking about dealing with the public. I absolutely think that we're going to see a pattern change, it's just difficult with the ensembles an operation runs going all over the place but again, I'll say it again, over and over that this tells me at least one thing. The pattern changes coming, but do we lock it in for the rest of winter? Or is it transient? either way please don't think that I'm jumping off the cliff or flip and flop it because that's not the case, I absolutely think the pattern is changing it's going to change soon I just don't know for how long and yes it's frustrating as hell look at these things go back and forth back and forth even in the short term Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It brought them all back to reality btw......I love persimmons lol I just love how everyone totally flips. What happens if the models at 12z go back to a cold look. Are they going to be wrong? We all need to take a chill pill. I'll throw in the towel on Jan 1 if the models are showing crap in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just curious, what makes the models from last night more correct than those same models 4-6 days in a row showing the total opposite? I just don't get it. Those being 2 most recent runs. And both 12z and 6z showing much different solutions. Including the ensembles, IMO it does hold some weight. Hope I'm wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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