buckeyefan1 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Keep it on topic folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 At HR 54 you can see the energy over NE TX starting to Move EAST. Its starting to pinch away from the northern Piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Has anybody ever looked up how many measurable snows in December the last 10 years Nah....it's too easy to whip out the ol' "December isn't a snow month" line. Personally, I haven't researched how many winter events happen in December vs JFM, and frankly, I don't care all that much. December is a month when you can realistically expect shots of cold and opportunities for storms, especially the last couple of weeks. To go through the month without either is a fail. There's really not much other way to look at it. And I don't really much like the metaphor about punting a month or sacrificing December for January or whatever. I mean, I understand the sentiment and all, but it's not like any mental conclusion we come to accept has any bearing on what the weather actually does, kind of like what Widre was saying. I don't punt or kick field goals or kick extra points. It's 4 down territory all winter long. It's an onsides kick and go for two after a score, every. single. time. We only have about 12-14 weeks or so to realistically expect snow. I realize we live in the SE and we're going to waste some prime winter time by dealing with bad patterns. But every week that goes by with nothing to show for it is a significant enough percentage of our overall winter to matter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Pack, I guess we're largely in agreement. I was just looking back at past CFSv2 winter month by month forecasts (so the horrible Nov. 2014 not included) out 8 days before the month being forecasted (will be 12/24 in this case) for the SE: Dec. 2011: predicted normal; was warm; grade C Jan 2012: warm predicted and verified: A Feb, 2012: warm predicted and verified: A Dec. 2012: predicted slightly warm and verified as solid warmth: B Jan 2013: predicted cool and was very warm: F Feb 2013: predicted cold and was cool: B Dec, 2013: predicted cool and was mild: D Jan 2014: predicted cool and was very cold: B Feb 2014: predicted cool and was near norm: B Dec 2014: predicted and will verify mild: A AVG from 8 days out: B...not as bad as I had earlier assumed. Any average better than C suggests some skill. Out of these 10 forecasts, a respectable 7 were good to excellent and only 2 busted. Conclusion: Having the CFSv2 8 day forecast for the next winter month on the side of cold would not be a bad thing. Let's see how it is on 12/24. Yep, agree. When you take it FWIW it's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It looks like it's trying Chris. It popped out a closed low the last few runs but runs it north. I feel like we need that wave to separate a good bit more. agreed, sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nah....it's too easy to whip out the ol' "December isn't a snow month" line. Personally, I haven't researched how many winter events happen in December vs JFM, and frankly, I don't care all that much. December is a month when you can realistically expect shots of cold and opportunities for storms, especially the last couple of weeks. To go through the month without either is a fail. There's really not much other way to look at it. And I don't really much like the metaphor about punting a month or sacrificing December for January or whatever. I mean, I understand the sentiment and all, but it's not like any mental conclusion we come to accept has any bearing on what the weather actually does, kind of like what Widre was saying. I don't punt or kick field goals or kick extra points. It's 4 down territory all winter long. It's an onsides kick and go for two after a score, every. single. time. We only have about 12-14 weeks or so to realistically expect snow. I realize we live in the SE and we're going to waste some prime winter time by dealing with bad patterns. But every week that goes by with nothing to show for it is a significant enough percentage of our overall winter to matter to me. isn't Raleigh running slightly below average for the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 agreed, sir With no blocking it just lifts up along the West side of the APPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 agreed, sir In it's evolution you can see it breaking away more....not sure if we have enough time for big changes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 isn't Raleigh running slightly below average for the month? I think we're right at average. It's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Fwiw, today's CFSv2 2M forecast for Jan warmed back a lot to just a little cooler than normal overall for the SE. To remind folks, yesterday's had a whopping 5-7 colder than normal and the coldest on the planet in the SE US. As we get closer to Jan., I'll be following these more closely as I do think they have some value as the subsequent month approaches. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141221.201501.gif I agree. Although comparing the last 3 runs vs this run it seems a little off in the big picture. Last 3 runs averaged have two distinct couplets trough, ridge, trough, ridge, trough. This run still has a slight southern trough but it seems to be off. The PNA seems to have shifted east, and there would definitely be a bigger trough on the east between those two ridges, IMO. It could help that they're averaged runs, though. The 14 day average is almost the same as the top picture FWIW, hopefully it's not a trend killing the trough but I doubt it personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think December is a realistic month for snow/Ice chances.... JMO And like some have already said every week that passes is a week gone not to make up.......... So I disagree that you just throw December out and start looking for snow/cold in January..... 3 months folks Dec-Feb and we already lost Dec. I know we have snows in March BIG deal it's 60 the next day and Muddy as all get out. We just lost one month of winter!!! JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Chris, GFS PARA is closer to your thinking. Still not there yet. Getting more separation with the waves and how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Chris, GFS PARA is closer to your thinking. Still not there yet. Getting more separation with the waves and how it evolves. I wonder if it can make it. I bet no, but like you said, there is DEF more separating of the streams now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nah....it's too easy to whip out the ol' "December isn't a snow month" line. Personally, I haven't researched how many winter events happen in December vs JFM, and frankly, I don't care all that much. December is a month when you can realistically expect shots of cold and opportunities for storms, especially the last couple of weeks. To go through the month without either is a fail. There's really not much other way to look at it. And I don't really much like the metaphor about punting a month or sacrificing December for January or whatever. I mean, I understand the sentiment and all, but it's not like any mental conclusion we come to accept has any bearing on what the weather actually does, kind of like what Widre was saying. I don't punt or kick field goals or kick extra points. It's 4 down territory all winter long. It's an onsides kick and go for two after a score, every. single. time. We only have about 12-14 weeks or so to realistically expect snow. I realize we live in the SE and we're going to waste some prime winter time by dealing with bad patterns. But every week that goes by with nothing to show for it is a significant enough percentage of our overall winter to matter to me. You come live down here in Atlanta during December and you'll see how well both of the bolded statements will be jeopardized once tested lol. I can only think of two Decembers within the past 15 years where there's been measurable snow. (2000 and 2010) Maybe I'm forgetting a year or two, but that's about it. Although I do agree with everything else and especially that December realistically can be a month to produce, it just hasn't done it for us. In the end it doesn't really matter, I personally still feel great about the potential for a wintry threat a week from now going into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I noticed how by hour 126 the same potential system, not as strong or as much energy as the Christmas one is showing again. Notice how the streams are separating. I am ok with, because it should drive the cold front through, and if there is enough southern branch *if you will* energy it should spark something next Sunday. Lets see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 We need some freakin confluence in the NE and some upstream help. We keep trying to get some 50/50, but just doesn't get there. Annoying for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 0Z GFS is coming in warmer and with a less impressive and more offshore western ridge to this point. Hopefully this doesn't mean it will come in warmer for later in the run though I'm honestly a bit suspicious that may happen. UGLY looking run to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Agreed Larry, there is finally some Blocking on both coasts, and some confluence starting to show in NE. Not going to get it done at all through next weekend. Still HUGE differences from the EURO And GFS for next Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 We need some freakin confluence in the NE and some upstream help. We keep trying to get some 50/50, but just doesn't get there. Annoying for sure. I don't think that even exists anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 edit...good lord its ugly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I don't think that even exists anymore. I don't either...Goodness..I miss those days we had that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Chris, yeah the ridging on both sides has taken a hike relative to earlier GFS runs. I have a feeling that the masses here are not going to like how the rest of this run looks, but let's see how it plays out..after all, I do believe in miracles and there are still another nine days in the run lmao. Also, it is just one run. It can always be discarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Moisture pooling late next weekend, but its a TORCH!! LOL SFC high over mid-atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Chris, yeah the ridging on both sides has taken a hike relative to earlier GFS runs. I have a feeling that the masses here are not going to like how the rest of this run looks, but let's see how it plays out..after all, I do believe in miracles and there are still another nine days in the run lmao. Also, it is just one run. It can always be discarded. LOL very true. Amazing how things change from runs to run. Did the ENS look ok? I don't remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wait a minute! Is this really the same model?? The differences from just the 18Z are absolutely astounding! Did the Para take over?? This is friggin bizarre! Edit: In all of my years of following the GFS, this has to be one of the largest changes I've ever seen in just one run for the 6-10+ forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wait a minute! Is this really the same model?? The differences from just the 18Z are absolutely astounding! Did the Para take over?? This is friggin bizarre! Edit: In all of my years of following the GFS, this has to be one of the largest changes I've ever seen in just one run for the 6-10+ forecast! I agree. This run is so frickin drastic, its hard to believe in to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Is everyone ok here? Don't worry, it is only wx. It will be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Is everyone ok here? Don't worry, it is only wx. It will be alright. Other than the myocardial infarction I'm OK... I think the GFS ingested some bad data. No trend to be had, I must see the ensembles!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Is everyone ok here? Don't worry, it is only wx. It will be alright. Lol I'm still trying to figure out how the 00z GFS just blows up the western ridge. I would bet the house the gfs ensembles look tell a much different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 These models are almost useless past Christmas in the past 10 days. Goodness gracious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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