metwannabe Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z GFS PARA in the LR tonight looks about as ugly as it can get. Lol the same one that had a mega phased New Years bomb. The para is a joke. No way it's roll out is not delayed . Way too any issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Sweet. Glad all the modeling agrees with one another, as expected during a signficant pattern change. !!!!!!!!!!!! They all suck down here ! Signs of progress.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Lol the same one that had a mega phased New Years bomb. The para is a joke. No way it's roll out is not delayed . Way too any issues Yea it has not done well it would seem. It is sticking to it's solution in the LR it seems though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Lol the same one that had a mega phased New Years bomb. The para is a joke. No way it's roll out is not delayed . Way too any issues Technically still a new years bomb for the MA and NE...well, a Dec 30-31st bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 That's the one I like The rain has started to run underneath, and some has made it up here, which is always the first tell for me. And it hasn't been 65 and rain...seldom is in winter. Follow the rain in winter, and the cold will come around, most times, I think. Rain every day, or three, usually finds some cold to play with, even if it's 36 and rain down here. (PS....Larry took climo over my 30 or 40 years of questionable memory about this...choosing to go with over 100 years of climo on the matter, lol. but one of these days I'll be right, and then I'll go na, na, nana na at him, and his wet/frozen climo ice cream And anyway, climo for around the 1st, in Ga. is propitious At least where I've been living. After Xmas day, the play begins in Ga. Tony Yep. With a nino, there's a better chance this winter of stuff popping up in the 3 to 5 day range. With the PNA ridge setting up, there will be opportunities for some quick hitting weak systems. The gfs would support something like that around new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Lol the same one that had a mega phased New Years bomb. The para is a joke. No way it's roll out is not delayed . Way too any issuesI've found it to generally be in line with the Euro. The Euro misses stuff too. The main GFS misses a lot of stuff, but I guess we're just used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yep. With a nino, there's a better chance this winter of stuff popping up in the 3 to 5 day range. With the PNA ridge setting up, there will be opportunities for some quick hitting weak systems. The gfs would support something like that around new years. 18z GFS Ensemble Mean on Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z GFS Ensemble Mean on Jan 1 looks interesting, let's hope things progress like the gfs is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Ok fare enough . I did say we would see if the solution was right or not read back thanks ? Funny u not going after 2 metts who does agree with me on this deal. back too the models! Mines comment be direct to any1 who think that way? I go after thos too metts to if they'd agrey wit u. Back two da modelz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I posted this a couple of weeks ago, but thought it was good to remember how winters turned out that started off slow similar to this one. Below are winters with +PDO/+ENSO that had a Dec with a neutral/+AO...Isotherms post in the main forum got me thinking about this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I posted this a couple of weeks ago, but thought it was good to remember how winters turned out that started off slow similar to this one. Below are winters with +PDO/+ENSO that had a Dec with a neutral/+AO...Isotherms post in the main forum got me thinking about this again. Yeah, December has been thought to be the "least winter-like" month of the season based on the analogs. Nothing to fret about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah, December has been thought to be the "least winter-like" month of the season based on the analogs. Nothing to fret about. Agree..I just can't see why people are super freaking out right now. December was always going to be a terrible month if you watched when Webber was putting them up online. Its playing out very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Agree..I just can't see why people are super freaking out right now. December was always going to be a terrible month if you watched when Webber was putting them up online. Its playing out very nice.yeah I don't understand, December is usually a slow month for snow even here in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Agree..I just can't see why people are super freaking out right now. December was always going to be a terrible month if you watched when Webber was putting them up online. Its playing out very nice.People try to say that December in the SE isn't a month we get snow. Bollocks, we can and do get winter storms in December. The last two weeks of December are right up there with the first two weeks of March. We have started burning prime climo time IMO. That's fine and dandy if we cash in during Jan-Feb but we have essentially decided that it's ok to throw away December and push our chips into Jan-Feb. That is ok if it works out but in turn it leaves a smaller window of error if things don't go as planned. People should be on edge as the window to cash in shrinks by the day. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 People try to say that December in the SE isn't a month we get snow. Bollocks, we can and do get winter storms in December. The last two weeks of December are right up there with the first two weeks of March. We have started burning prime climo time IMO. That's fine and dandy if we cash in during Jan-Feb but we have essentially decided that it's ok to throw away December and push our chips into Jan-Feb. That is ok if it works out but in turn it leaves a smaller window of error if things don't go as planned. People should be on edge as the window to cash in shrinks by the day. JMO.I don't think we're betting anything. We have absolutely no control over the situation. If we turned off our computers now and threw them out the window and looked at no more models or snow advance indices, the outcome would be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 hmmm..I know its the NAM, but we have gone from the Christmas bomb, to an apps runner, now a weaker solutions that almost runs on the EAST side of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 hmmm..I know its the NAM, but we have gone from the Christmas bomb, to an apps runner, now a weaker solutions that almost runs on the EAST side of the apps.at this rate the trough will stay positive tilt until it hits the atlantic. #Models fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 And coming into this winter all the important factors were supposed to be on our side for a big winter. There has never been as much consensus from mets saying this since these boards have been around. Almost all that posted here called for above average snow. If it doesn't end up that way, a lot of mets are going to be wondering what it really takes for a big winter here and why it didn't happen if all the factors were supposed to be there.All it takes is a. - NAO!That's the magic bullet, and we can't buy one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 There goes Mr Positivity again who is so bullish for this winter. We hardly ever get snow here in my area in December. That is why the 2010 Christmas snow and the 2002 ice storm were such a big deal. January and February are when we get snow. It is rare to get any in December. It has been that way as long as I have been alive. Has anybody ever looked up how many measurable snows in December the last 10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Fwiw, today's CFSv2 2M forecast for Jan warmed back a lot to just a little cooler than normal overall for the SE. To remind folks, yesterday's had a whopping 5-7 colder than normal and the coldest on the planet in the SE US. As we get closer to Jan., I'll be following these more closely as I do think they have some value as the subsequent month approaches. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141221.201501.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I have a feeling that we could be seeing a closed low traveling through the mid south and maybe the SE with the Christmas storm. I know that sounds WAYYYYY far out there, but notice how the northern piece is starting to shear off it, and the southern piece is really slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 All it takes is a. - NAO! That's the magic bullet, and we can't buy one! Huh? All we need is just a weak -NAO for a short period of time. That happened in Feb. Models are showing it now. Not sure what all the doom and gloom is about. What else do we want to see from the models right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Fwiw, today's CFSv2 2M forecast for Jan warmed back a lot to just a little cooler than normal overall for the SE. To remind folks, yesterday's had a whopping 5-7 colder than normal and the coldest on the planet in the SE US. As we get closer to Jan., I'll be following these more closely as I do think they have some value as the subsequent month approaches. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141221.201501.gif Agreed! It gets a bad rap, but it's done fairly well when you use the last few runs of the month. I looked back at the previous 3 winters and it only busted on 1 of the 9 months and that bust wasn't that bad if I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Huh? All we need is just a weak -NAO for a short period of time. That happened in Feb. Models are showing it now. Not sure what all the doom and gloom is about. What else do we want to see from the models right now?Consistency , and that we have none of! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I have a feeling that we could be seeing a closed low traveling through the mid south and maybe the SE with the Christmas storm. I know that sounds WAYYYYY far out there, but notice how the northern piece is starting to shear off it, and the southern piece is really slowing down. I've thought this setup would develop since about Friday. I just can't believe a medium strength LP will force out a 1038 HP the models have very consistantly shown since last Wednesday/Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I have a feeling that we could be seeing a closed low traveling through the mid south and maybe the SE with the Christmas storm. I know that sounds WAYYYYY far out there, but notice how the northern piece is starting to shear off it, and the southern piece is really slowing down.you might be right. You can see the max over the Lakes and the 2nd piece almost getting pinched off at the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Agreed! It gets a bad rap, but it's done fairly well when you use the last few runs of the month. I looked back at the previous 3 winters and it only busted on 1 of the 9 months and that bust wasn't that bad if I recall.it's ENSO forecast was brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Agreed! It gets a bad rap, but it's done fairly well when you use the last few runs of the month. I looked back at the previous 3 winters and it only busted on 1 of the 9 months and that bust wasn't that bad if I recall. Pack, I guess we're largely in agreement. I was just looking back at past CFSv2 winter month by month forecasts (so the horrible Nov. 2014 not included) out 8 days before the month being forecasted (will be 12/24 in this case) for the SE: Dec. 2011: predicted normal; was warm; grade C Jan 2012: warm predicted and verified: A Feb, 2012: warm predicted and verified: A Dec. 2012: predicted slightly warm and verified as solid warmth: B Jan 2013: predicted cool and was very warm: F Feb 2013: predicted cold and was cool: B Dec, 2013: predicted cool and was mild: D Jan 2014: predicted cool and was very cold: B Feb 2014: predicted cool and was near norm: B Dec 2014: predicted and will verify mild: A AVG from 8 days out: B...not as bad as I had earlier assumed. Any average better than C suggests some skill. Out of these 10 forecasts, a respectable 7 were good to excellent and only 2 busted. Conclusion: Having the CFSv2 8 day forecast for the next winter month on the side of cold would not be a bad thing. Let's see how it is on 12/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Consistency , and that we have none of! 10 runs in a row of a model and it's ENS isn't consistency? We haven't had this much consistency since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I have a feeling that we could be seeing a closed low traveling through the mid south and maybe the SE with the Christmas storm. I know that sounds WAYYYYY far out there, but notice how the northern piece is starting to shear off it, and the southern piece is really slowing down. It looks like it's trying Chris. It popped out a closed low the last few runs but runs it north. I feel like we need that wave to separate a good bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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