JoshM Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Let's get this party started right! Flurries showing on GFS North of I-40 tomorrow, that's a start, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 hey notice how the GFS is NOT dropping that next trof down the WEST coast and its trending further and further east?? the trof after the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well the last super thread was a train wreck. I guess it's safe to say no mojo for me in the thread starting department in 2014. I'm sorry I failed to deliver. Today has been somber..... Patience is key I suppose. It sure looks like our blockbuster winter prospects have busted. THis doesn't mean we can't have a decent stretch of winter. We still have a couple of primo months to get some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 hey notice how the GFS is NOT dropping that next trof down the WEST coast and its trending further and further east?? the trof after the Christmas storm.I like your optimism man. Do you see any possibility of becoming an Atlanta met one day soon? Is the market up here not available for a realtivly young but eager met to push some of these "seasoned" guys who are way to comfortable in their positions out?Btw: shoot me a few snowflakes down into marietta if you can. Your line stops about 20 miles to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I like your optimism man. Do you see any possibility of becoming an Atlanta met one day soon? Is the market up here not available for a realtivly young but eager met to push some of these "seasoned" guys who are way to comfortable in their positions out? Btw: shoot me a few snowflakes down into marietta if you can. Your line stops about 20 miles to my north. IDK about Atlanta...I doubt I could EVER break into that market. I guess my whole point was, the super dump of cold/stormy out west, was wrong when they did, now there not! Did yall see what the GFS tries to do? Arctic dump over the nation with some over running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 IDK about Atlanta...I doubt I could EVER break into that market. I guess my whole point was, the super dump of cold/stormy out west, was wrong when they did, now there not! Did yall see what the GFS tries to do? Arctic dump over the nation with some over running? Not seeing images yet on my two sources, seems to be related to the outage/hacking whatever the problem is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well the last super thread was a train wreck. I guess it's safe to say no mojo for me in the thread starting department in 2014. I'm sorry I failed to deliver. Today has been somber..... Patience is key I suppose. It sure looks like our blockbuster winter prospects have busted. THis doesn't mean we can't have a decent stretch of winter. We still have a couple of primo months to get some action. 1) You didn't fail. You lead us to the doorstep of the pattern change. What more could be asked of you? 2) You're already saying our blockbuster winter winter prospects have busted? How do you know for sure? If much of the period from very late Dec. through Feb, is dominated by cold, it could certainly end up being a blockbuster. We certainly don't have to have a SSW though we may still get one. Granted, there is some Q about if/when a strong -AO and then -NAO gets established for much of the rest of the winter. If that doesn't come to pass, Cohen's SAI and the OPI would bust badly and our cold winter prospects would be in deep poop. Also, something resembling the 1939-40 analog could be in trouble if the AO/NAO don't cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The last 2 runs of the GFS Op quickly loses the -NAO which was strong on the 12z run...but the 00z manages to get cold via the western Canada / Alaska ridging (which was also there at 12z). I realize this is just the op runs, but model chaos is high, especially with the big low early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 1) You didn't fail. You lead us to the doorstep of the pattern change. What more could be asked of you? 2) You're already saying our blockbuster winter winter prospects have busted? How do you know for sure? If much of the period from very late Dec. through Feb, is dominated by cold, it could certainly end up being a blockbuster. We certainly don't have to have a SSW though we may still get one. Granted, there is some Q about if/when a strong -AO and then -NAO gets established for much of the rest of the winter. If that doesn't come to pass, Cohen's SAI and the OPI would bust badly and our cold winter prospects would be in deep poop. Agreed sir, we can still have a great winter. The mood on here today was painful even for a warminista like me. I'm ready for some positive news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 0Z GFS is coming out late at my provider. Has anyone seen the entire run yet? Fwiw, The 288 hour map just was released and suggests 12/31 snow for some in the inland SE (for entertainment and therapy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 0Z GFS is coming out late at my provider. Has anyone seen the entire run yet? Fwiw, The 288 hour map just was released and suggests 12/31 snow for some in the inland SE (for entertainment and therapy).I think last nights 0z GFS had this New Years storm as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I think last nights 0z GFS had this New Years storm as well? I don't recall. This 0z run also has some snow on 1/3-4 fwiw (more therapy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I don't recall. This 0z run also has some snow on 1/3-4 fwiw (more therapy).How cold did it look after Christmas? Seasonal to slightly below or a big cold push? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 WSI must have got lucky, cuz I got the run at normal times. Unless it needs to be re ran. It shows a VERY nice pattern with some very cold air nearby and some storminess after the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Look like Americans aren't only ones having problems with their models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Look like Americans aren't only ones having problems with their models... You talking about the Canadian, eh? I blame N. Korea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Interesting trends on the GFS and EURO tonight. GFS has convection that could cut off moisture in GA..EURO not so much so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 996mb over HSV by 6z WED. Not nearly as much convection as gfs has in the gom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 989mb near Rocky Top by 12z WED. What a powerhouse setting up. The energy with this is amazing. LLJ around 35-55kt by late tue night/early wed am. over GA 100+kt H5 streak into AL and GA by late TUE/WED AM 135-150kt Jet at H3 by 18z wed. its got some wind energy for sure. CAPES are over 200-800 over a large portion on AL and GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 6z GFS did not come in as cold in the far LR as the 0z(loved the 0z look at day 15/16). The 6z would depict near average temps(especially the farther south you are) with maybe a warm up to above (days 15 onward). But this model has been flipping so bad I'm not going to worry about it at this range. It does have some threats but many would be on the warm side of the 850 line; which doesn't mean there couldn't be ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Wow very much surprised there wasn't more talk of the GFS last night. Both it and the PARA looked fantastic. 6z still has the threat for around New Years. Counting the PARA that makes six runs in a row now that are picking up on cold and snowy for New Years. EPS looked slightly better around that time frame as well. The big question is not IF a cold air dump is happening now it will just be for how long. Really though in the SE how often do we get a month long block or even two weeks of arctic air? It doesn't happen much. Give me a week for a chance and I'm happy. Modulate back to seasonal and we'll wait for the next week of cold air. This is especially good if we get a reloading pattern and with all that energy rolling south it sets up for lots of chances for storms. By the way GEFS and CMC ENS all look great for the New Years time period this is the most consistency I can remember from the LR models in a long long long time for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I posted this in the other thread as well but this time last year there were a lot of people wondering if winter was lost. We had nothing much to track but things changed quickly. It turned out to be a very memorable winter that no one could have predicted in mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I posted this in the other thread as well but this time last year there were a lot of people wondering if winter was lost. We had nothing much to track but things changed quickly. It turned out to be a very memorable winter that no one could have predicted in mid December. Good Post. I recall your post from the previous thread. I posted the same thing several days ago. The cliff divers were lining up on the cliff right up until Christmas last year, when all of the sudden it became obvious what was coming. The rest of the winter was very memorable. Not saying it will be a repeat, but the odds and the evidence this year are, thus far, better than last. I personally have a hard time being doom and gloom. I've lived thru too many warm and snowless winters in GA. If I was angry every winter day that was not cold and snowy or had cold and snow on the horizon, I would be an angry person. That's not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Wow very much surprised there wasn't more talk of the GFS last night. Both it and the PARA looked fantastic. 6z still has the threat for around New Years. Counting the PARA that makes six runs in a row now that are picking up on cold and snowy for New Years. EPS looked slightly better around that time frame as well. The big question is not IF a cold air dump is happening now it will just be for how long. Really though in the SE how often do we get a month long block or even two weeks of arctic air? It doesn't happen much. Give me a week for a chance and I'm happy. Modulate back to seasonal and we'll wait for the next week of cold air. This is especially good if we get a reloading pattern and with all that energy rolling south it sets up for lots of chances for storms. By the way GEFS and CMC ENS all look great for the New Years time period this is the most consistency I can remember from the LR models in a long long long time for cold. The 0z/6z GEFS have several snowy members. Probably fools good, but promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Burger - check the run date/times for the GFS Para. I don't think it is updating and you are getting the same runs. Looking at ensemble trends, it appears to me that the Atlantic ideas have trended toward the Euro with the -NAO spike being rather brief....and the Pacific ideas have trended toward the GFS with the stout and favorably oriented -EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Burger - check the run date/times for the GFS Para. I don't think it is updating and you are getting the same runs. Looking at ensemble trends, it appears to me that the Atlantic ideas have trended toward the Euro with the -NAO spike being rather brief....and the Pacific ideas have trended toward the GFS with the stout and favorably oriented -EPO ridge. Huh...sounds like a similar look to last january or am I imagining things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Burger - check the run date/times for the GFS Para. I don't think it is updating and you are getting the same runs. Looking at ensemble trends, it appears to me that the Atlantic ideas have trended toward the Euro with the -NAO spike being rather brief....and the Pacific ideas have trended toward the GFS with the stout and favorably oriented -EPO ridge. Looks like last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Burger - check the run date/times for the GFS Para. I don't think it is updating and you are getting the same runs. Looking at ensemble trends, it appears to me that the Atlantic ideas have trended toward the Euro with the -NAO spike being rather brief....and the Pacific ideas have trended toward the GFS with the stout and favorably oriented -EPO ridge. It looks like the infamous TNH pattern may try to return...that pattern makes a -NAO virtually impossible to have while the AO tends to be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It looks like the infamous TNH pattern may try to return...that pattern makes a -NAO virtually impossible to have while the AO tends to be negative. And that's ok, we can work with that down here, IMO. That's especially true if we can get a moderate to strong negative AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Remind me, do we like the TNH pattern? Now that it's snowing, that should buy us a few steps back from the cliff, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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