Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2015

[BuffaloWeather]

The entire premise of tornadoes being judged on the damage they cause instead of extrapolated radar data makes it tough to get excited about more violent/strong "quality" tornadoes. There has to be a better way to judge the strength of tornadoes.

[Quincy]

It's not saying much considering 2012-2014, but it looks like this year may finish with the most tornadoes since 2011. Realizing that we will not even come close to 2011 and should still wind up well below average.

[ClicheVortex2014]

It's not saying much considering 2012-2014, but it looks like this year may finish with the most tornadoes since 2011. Realizing that we will not even come close to 2011 and should still wind up well below average.

torngraph-big.png

Based on the ENSO trends for the next 2 years... the annual tornado count uptick should continue. 2017 could especially be a doozy.

[jshetley]

No high risk and under 500 tornados this year. 

My no high risk call for this year is looking awfully good right now. I don't see a high risk coming next year either. Maybe in 2017.

[andyhb]

Way to totally ignore your 500 tornadoes call.

 

Also I'd strongly bet against consecutive years with no high risks.

[Stebo]

My no high risk call for this year is looking awfully good right now. I don't see a high risk coming next year either. Maybe in 2017.

Yeah, I see zero chance of that verifying. Every moderate/strong nino transitioning to a Nina year going back to the early 90s has had a few high risks.

[andyhb]

Per the wiki page, looks like we've gone over 1000 tornadoes for the year for the first time since 2011.

[OKwx2K4]

Per the wiki page, looks like we've gone over 1000 tornadoes for the year for the first time since 2011.

What is the source that will be used for verification on this?

[andyhb]

What is the source that will be used for verification on this?

 

Usually SPC has a final count once everything is tallied up and entered into the database.

[OKwx2K4]

Usually SPC has a final count once everything is tallied up and entered into the database.

Thank you.

[rolltide_130]

Per the wiki page, looks like we've gone over 1000 tornadoes for the year for the first time since 2011.

 

Thanks in no small part to an extremely active fall season. One of the more active cool season years I can remember. 

[chuck in cali]

hey man, my guess is 6

[Chinook]

Tornadoes of 2015-- slide from AMS conference

 

[Chinook]

Thoughts about severe weather-- does anyone even read warnings? You might think this is a little cynical, but maybe not.

 

[andyhb]

Final count via SPC appears to be 1152. Pretty solid recovery considering how the year began.