Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2015

[Quincy]

Most down years have at least one high risk and who knows how many moderate risks.

Since 1988, there has only been one year without a high risk outlook and that was 2000.

As for moderate risk outlooks, even relatively tame recent years saw 16 in 2014 and 17 in 2013. This doesn't even include days with high risk outlooks.

[Stebo]

It's looking like my forecast of under 500 for this will verify. It's early, but it looks as if March is gone now and maybe most of April. Could it be possible to stay under even 250 and not even a moderate risk this year?

Under 500? Not a chance that is true, hell even quiet years that started out this low ended up with at least 750 tornadoes.

 

Better start building an ark considering how much rain you want to get.

[MidwestChaser]

It's looking like my forecast of under 500 for this will verify. It's early, but it looks as if March is gone now and maybe most of April. Could it be possible to stay under even 250 and not even a moderate risk this year?

 

Under 250? Put down the crack pipe. 

[Chinook]

'Twas the night before April

And all through the Plains

Not a thunderstorm was stirring

Not even any rains.

 

All the chasers were gassed up

And ready to cruise

But the lack of tornadoes

Gave them all the blues.

 

Andyhb with his GFS

and I with my NAM

Said "Look, there will be high CAPE on next Tuesday"

But it was all a sham.

[Hoosier]

'Twas the night before April

And all through the Plains

Not a thunderstorm was stirring

Not even any rains.

 

All the chasers were gassed up

And ready to cruise

But the lack of tornadoes

Gave them all the blues.

 

Andyhb with his GFS

and I with my NAM

Said "Look, there will be high CAPE on next Tuesday"

But it was all a sham.

 

 

lol

[nrgjeff]

1150 tornadoes. First High Risk April 22. Despite cool regime the Gulf is actually warmer than normal. Perhaps we will have below normal tornadoes and severe days, but not necessarily a later than normal first High Risk.

[andyhb]

'Twas the night before April

...

 

[Hoosier]

 

 

Keli Pirtle, NOAA Public Affairs
Noon CST, March 17, 2015

NORMAN, Okla. During a month when severe weather typically strikes, this March has been unusually quiet, with no tornado or severe thunderstorm watches issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center so far. And, National Weather Service forecasters see no sign of dramatic change for the next week at least.

"We are in uncharted territory with respect to lack of severe weather", said Greg Carbin, SPC's warning coordination meteorologist. "This has never happened in the record of SPC watches dating back to 1970."

Since the beginning of 2015, the SPC has issued only four tornado watches and no severe thunderstorm watches, which is less than 10 percent of the typical number of 52 tornado watches issued by mid-March. The approximately 20 tornadoes reported since January 1 is well below the 10-year average of 130 for that time period.

There is no one clear reason to explain the lack of tornadoes, Carbin said. "We're in a persistent pattern that suppresses severe weather, and the right ingredients -- moisture, instability, and lift -- have not been brought together in any consistent way so far this year."

Forecasters expect a change soon, however. April and May are typically the busiest months for severe weather and tornadoes. Patterns can change in a few days, Carbin said, and it's important to be prepared for severe weather when it occurs.

Analysis of the ten lowest and ten highest watch count years through the middle of March reveals little correlation to the subsequent number of tornadoes through the end of June. For example, early 2012 was particularly active with 77 watches issued through mid-March. The subsequent period through the end of June was unusually quiet for tornadoes with about 130 fewer EF1 and stronger tornadoes occurring than what would normally be expected. On the other hand, 1984, with a relatively low watch count of 28 through mid-March, became more active and by late June had about 100 EF1 and stronger tornadoes above the long-term mean of 285.

[Roger Smith]

Carbon dioxide just won't spin, eh?

 

Well I foresee a much better pattern developing and will go with 1201 total (voted 1200-1300 but that might be optimistic) and first max risk in a big outbreak around April 8-9.

 

I have the feeling that mega-heat will develop in central regions during May and June. This may be preceded by a very active April in the southeastern states, then would see a rapid shift to northern plains and Great Lakes regions where the frontal boundaries will be more active by May-June. So it may be an unconventional season but still an active one eventually.

[Hoosier]

Decent chance that Wednesday is the last shot for tornadoes this month as eastern troughing returns afterward.  I know the chasers don't want it but I'm rooting for no tornadoes for the rest of March.  Might as well go for a shutout at this point.

 

As far as a March shutout, it would be unprecedented during the modern era, but I think there's a real possibility that it hasn't happened in at least 135 years.  Using Grazulis records for 1880-1949, there are only a handful of Marches without significant tornadoes.  Given that it's much more common to get tornadoes rated EF0/EF1, there could very well have been weaker tornadoes in those years that didn't have significant tornadoes.  Obviously there's no way to know for sure though.

[mappy]

Decent chance that Wednesday is the last shot for tornadoes this month as eastern troughing returns afterward.  I know the chasers don't want it but I'm rooting for no tornadoes for the rest of March.  Might as well go for a shutout at this point.

 

As far as a March shutout, it would be unprecedented during the modern era, but I think there's a real possibility that it hasn't happened in at least 135 years.  Using Grazulis records for 1880-1949, there are only a handful of Marches without significant tornadoes.  Given that it's much more common to get tornadoes rated EF0/EF1, there could very well have been weaker tornadoes in those years that didn't have significant tornadoes.  Obviously there's no way to know for sure though.

 

Anything less than six would be a record for March, beating out 1951

[andyhb]

It's looking like my forecast of under 500 for this will verify. It's early, but it looks as if March is gone now and maybe most of April. Could it be possible to stay under even 250 and not even a moderate risk this year?

 

Nope.

[WxKevinM]

Under 500, really? Please no. I'll take that bet and raise you wedges. (although I've been getting pessimistic as well.) There were a few tor's tonight to break the March drought of 2015.

[Hoosier]

Not sure what the JFM total is/will be this year but it will undoubtedly go down as one of the quieter opening 3 months on record.  The record low for JFM tornadoes is 16 in 1969.

[mappy]

Not sure what the JFM total is/will be this year but it will undoubtedly go down as one of the quieter opening 3 months on record.  The record low for JFM tornadoes is 16 in 1969.

 

There has been 26 so far prior to yesterday

[Hoosier]

There has been 26 so far prior to yesterday

 

 

That's confirmed and not prelim reports?

[mappy]

That's confirmed and not prelim reports?

 

Yes -- got it from Wiki, when in my past experience, seems to be pretty good with their numbers. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornadoes_from_January_to_March_2015

 

 

24 in January

2 in February 

[mappy]

SPC confirms Wiki #s, well prelim (doesn't have actual listed).

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

[Hoosier]

Lowest JFM tornado totals:

 

16 in 1969

18 in 1951

40 in 1968

41 in 1966

46 in 1958

47 in 1978

47 in 1985

48 in 1950

49 in 1988

50 in 1955

50 in 1970

 

source:  tornadohistoryproject

[mappy]

THP doesn't include 2014, but it wouldn't be on your list (it had 66 in JFM). 

[Hoosier]

Out of those years I posted above, the final yearly total in each one ended up being pretty lame.  1978 had the best "comeback"

[Disc]

Ceiling seems pretty high with this next event looming over the horizon. If they go high risk on Wednesday, Indystorm will only be one day off on his prediction. 

 

I, on the other hand, will be off by a little over a week.

[Chinook]

It has been nearly 3 years since the great tornado outbreak of April 14, 2012. There were approximately 80 tornadoes on April 14th 2012 (86 listed on the SPC online SeverePlot) and approximately 28 tornadoes on April 13th and 15th combined. There were not very many fatalities, considering there were 9 EF2+ tornadoes.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_13%E2%80%9316,_2012_tornado_outbreak

[Quincy]

After a seasonable uptick in tornado reports early in the month of April, it appears we are flat-lining again for a while. Hovering close to the 10-year low in tornado reports with less than 30% to average year-to-date.

 

With troughing returning to the upper Midwest/Great Lakes for much of April week 3 (19th-24th), there's no sign in sight of any high risk opportunities in the near future.

[andyhb]

After a seasonable uptick in tornado reports early in the month of April, it appears we are flat-lining again for a while.

 

Thursday looks like it could offer a blip on the cardiograph. I sure as hell know chasers would be killing for that same setup come late May/June, and it doesn't look too bad for the Panhandle/W OK as it is now.

 

Didn't you suggest a mid-month lull followed by an uptick towards the end of April in your forecast?

[Quincy]

Thursday looks like it could offer a blip on the cardiograph. I sure as hell know chasers would be killing for that same setup come late May/June, and it doesn't look too bad for the Panhandle/W OK as it is now.

Didn't you suggest a mid-month lull followed by an uptick towards the end of April in your forecast?

The next couple of days have gotten interesting. Beyond that, watching the progression of what's modeled to be a cutoff low swinging into the Southwest by the middle of next week. There could be some enhanced potential across the southern Plains into Dixie Alley as that feature advances east. However, the overall ensemble data supports broad scale eastern U.S. troughing, which has trended more prominent than ensemble runs were progging earlier this month.

Either way, I think we'll gradually shift into a pattern with more troughs swinging into the Plains by either the end of April, or more likely early May, at least in terms of notable severe threats north of the southern Plains.

Will follow-up after the new Euro Weeklies come out tomorrow. My outlook has shifted from cautiously optimistic to more cautiously skeptical.

[Torchageddon]

It has been nearly 3 years since the great tornado outbreak of April 14, 2012. There were approximately 80 tornadoes on April 14th 2012 (86 listed on the SPC online SeverePlot) and approximately 28 tornadoes on April 13th and 15th combined. There were not very many fatalities, considering there were 9 EF2+ tornadoes.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_13%E2%80%9316,_2012_tornado_outbreak

 

I was going to write something about this event, it was quite a week leading up to it. Not including 2011's events, I have not seen that much analysis for an event and a long build-up such as this and there was so much material to learn from and the feeling of something huge coming down the pike was amazing. It was looking to be one of the most significant great plains tornado outbreaks of all time and I read one state the ceiling (if everything was maximized) was Super Outbreak III. I shy away from that even if the atmosphere produced as many tornadoes as possible but no doubt a Top 10 event was within reach. The size of the high risk weighted for tornado risk was absurd, I'd like to find out how it stacks up to the biggest tornado-weighted high risk zones. I might be using the wrong terminology there as the wind and hail risk was sufficient for a High Risk.

 

A memorable NAM image I have showed 12 EHI for south-central Kansas and an enormous span of decent EHI for Nebraska down to Texas. This was for 11 pm! Violent activity was possible in the overnight hours and one tornado in Woodward OK claimed the only lives taken by the outbreak. I think about the monster supercell that tracked through the most favorable area around 9:00 - 10:00 pm CDT (the EF3 that hit southern Wichita) and wonder what its true intensity was because the velocity was maxed out and looked to be a possible EF5 on the ground before getting to the city. I can't find anything about what the rural damage was like (ground scouring, farm damage, etc.).

[Quincy]

Euro ensembles keep modestly to moderately below average heights across the entire CONUS through day 10. Although there is some relaxing progged for days 11-13, there's been a steady trend for several weeks that height anomalies turn more negative than projected in the extended.

It appears that the late April tornado uptick is in jeopardy, unless we can muster out something similar to 4/27-28/14. It just so happens that the southern Plains into Dixie might have some enhanced potential to round out April, but I'm not getting too excited as of now.

[Smokey_mountain_vols]

Euro ensembles keep modestly to moderately below average heights across the entire CONUS through day 10. Although there is some relaxing progged for days 11-13, there's been a steady trend for several weeks that height anomalies turn more negative than projected in the extended.

It appears that the late April tornado uptick is in jeopardy, unless we can muster out something similar to 4/27-28/14. It just so happens that the southern Plains into Dixie might have some enhanced potential to round out April, but I'm not getting too excited as of now.

I'm thinking the massive tornado risk is going to continue to be in Kansas, missouri, Illinois, Ohio, northwest Arkansas, those kinds of areas. Things seem to be bad there of late.

[Quincy]

No High Risk outlooks through April and none in the foreseeable future.

 

74% (20 out of last 27) of years had a High Risk outlook by the end of April.

22% (6 out of last 27) of years had their first High Risk after April 30th.

Only one season since 1988 did not have a High Risk outlook and that was 2000.

 

Years without a documented* High Risk outlook by April 30th:
1988, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1997, 2000 and 2013.

1988 had a High Risk outlook on May 7th that under-performed.

1989 did not have a High Risk outlook until the November 15th tornado outbreak.

1992 had back to back High Risk outlooks on June 16th and 17th (dates sound familiar?)

1993 had a High Risk outlook on June 7th.

1997 had a High Risk on May 2nd for a derecho and another on July 1st for a modest tornado outbreak.

2000 had no High Risk outlooks, was slightly below average for tornadoes and did not record any violent tornadoes.

2013 had a High Risk outlook on June 12th for a derecho (the High Risk was actually displaced to the northeast of the majority of the storm reports). That year had a fairly active fall with a large tornado outbreak on November 17th, which accompanied a High Risk outlook.

*It's possible that a lack of data for early SPC outlooks may mean that High Risk outlooks are missing prior to the mid-90s. Either way, 1993 was an analog May that matches up with ensemble forecasts for the next week. Also, 1988 and 1989 were notable years for well below average tornado counts.

 

I actually would not be surprised if we don't get a High Risk outlook this year. I hope I'm wrong, but there are no big signs right now if any major pattern change that would flag a strong potential for a High Risk setup. There is some hope that things turn active by the second half of May or June, but only time will tell.

 

Here's a revised graph of High Risk probability through the year. Thanks to Ian for bringing up the point about multiple High Risk events in the same week of the same year, so I filtered those out: