Randy4Confluence Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Harvey Leonard @HarveyWCVB 4m4 minutes ago Christmas Eve: Rainy, windy, & temps. may approach or touch 60 degrees in some areas #WCVB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Maybe it's just me looking for snow all of the time, but it always seems like the potential snow storms 200 hours out end up going in the crapper, but the RAIN storms, that's a different story, as the seem to come to fruition more times than not in some form or another. Wasn't this rainer in the scope 2 weeks ago, and has been holding course since the beginning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Time to start looking at record highs for the 24th. Could see places like TAN, PVD and BOS soar into low- mid 60's with Dews right behind . Mid - upper 50's everywhere else. Merry Christmas as we don shorts and golf shirts for services that night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Maybe it's just me looking for snow all of the time, but it always seems like the potential snow storms 200 hours out end up going in the crapper, but the RAIN storms, that's a different story, as the seem to come to fruition more times than not in some form or another. Wasn't this rainer in the scope 2 weeks ago, and has been holding course since the beginning? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45016-201415-winter-banter-and-general-observations/?p=3199398 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45016-201415-winter-banter-and-general-observations/?p=3199398 lol. I guess I'm never in that thread when that convo happens. ...and it sounds like it happens more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Maybe it's just me looking for snow all of the time, but it always seems like the potential snow storms 200 hours out end up going in the crapper, but the RAIN storms, that's a different story, as the seem to come to fruition more times than not in some form or another. Wasn't this rainer in the scope 2 weeks ago, and has been holding course since the beginning? I had this same question in another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I had this same question in another thread. It's all perception on this board. A snowstorm can only trend one way, into the crapper. A rainstorm can also only trend one way, towards more snow. It's an overly simplistic view, but in practice it's true. Nobody remembers the modeled rainer than turns blue bomb, because everyone is too busy high fiving themselves over the snow storm. Everybody remembers the day 10 HECS that the GFS took away by cutting to MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Did the Euro trend one way or the other for the Christmas Storm??. What a disaster for the ski areas. They have lots of base but the snow will become hard packed and crappy once the cold air comes back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro with 964 bomb over the Lakes. Says yes to wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's all perception on this board. A snowstorm can only trend one way, into the crapper. A rainstorm can also only trend one way, towards more snow. It's an overly simplistic view, but in practice it's true. Nobody remembers the modeled rainer than turns blue bomb, because everyone is too busy high fiving themselves over the snow storm. Everybody remembers the day 10 HECS that the GFS took away by cutting to MSP. Old (pseudo) Chinese proverb: Do right one hundred times, not hear of it once; do wrong once, hear of it one hundred times. My 8" very dense (prob. 3"+ LE) snowpack will be tough to melt, but the 3" of mid-40s RA discussed in GYX's latest AFD would likely take most of it. Were that to verify, we'd have some interesting streamflows, from small brooks to main-stem rivers. Wouldn't approach 1987 but might be the biggest flow since then. Still outside 100 hr, plenty of time for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Time to start looking at record highs for the 24th. Could see places like TAN, PVD and BOS soar into low- mid 60's with Dews right behind . Mid - upper 50's everywhere else. Merry Christmas as we don shorts and golf shirts for services that night We always do the dew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Old (pseudo) Chinese proverb: Do right one hundred times, not hear of it once; do wrong once, hear of it one hundred timeshey that Chinese guy knows my wife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Christmas Day looks like it could be very windy. 6z GFS bufkit has gusts potentially exceeding 50 knots...a bit far out but impressive to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 50s for almost all on last night's euro. Absolutely classic Grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 50s for almost all on last night's euro. Absolutely classic Grinch.Just a massive hit for the ski areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I'll be honest...when I saw the projected warmth I started looking and hoping there would be some convection possible..like low topped squall line stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Rainfall records being broken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 50s for almost all on last night's euro. Absolutely classic Grinch.Very impressive actually. Puts rain almost to Hudson Bay. Doubt places in northern Quebec see rain on Christmas too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 If it is going to be a disaster you might as well go all out. Unfortunately my family coming up for Christmas is going to be horribly disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 If it is going to be a disaster you might as well go all out. Unfortunately my family coming up for Christmas is going to be horribly disappointed.Yeah this might be the the grinch storm that we measure future grinch storms to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Such a good start to the season up north getting washed away. Folks going skiing for the holidays better bring their canoes and ice skates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Pretty impressive disagreement between the GFS/EURO re rainfall totals, new 12z GFS makes it a typical(We see a couple of them every winter really) 1-2" rainstorm with less to the west while the 0z EURO has widespread 3"+ totals and has 1" all the way back to close to BUF. Hope that the GFS is right because 3" of rain would be a mess for NNE both flood related and for ski resorts, but likely it's got it's usual dry bias going again. 0z Canadian is a compromise between the two, but much closer to the EURO than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Pretty impressive disagreement between the GFS/EURO re rainfall totals, new 12z GFS makes it a typical(We see a couple of them every winter really) 1-2" rainstorm with less to the west while the 0z EURO has widespread 3"+ totals and has 1" all the way back to close to BUF. Hope that the GFS is right because 3" of rain would be a mess for NNE both flood related and for ski resorts, but likely it's got it's usual dry bias going again. 0z Canadian is a compromise between the two, but much closer to the EURO than GFS. A solution closer towards the Euro is probably more likely than the GFS IMO. The synoptics of this system really favor a tremendous amount of lift and with the system undergoing such rapid deepening to our west we will really see the LLJ crank. The LLJ coming in off the Atlantic at >50 knots is going to yield a tremendous amount of moisture streaming into the system and with a flux of much warmer and higher dewpoint air, the air is going to be capable of holding a pretty good deal of moisture. I wouldn't be shocked if some locations exceed 5'' of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 A solution closer towards the Euro is probably more likely than the GFS IMO. The synoptics of this system really favor a tremendous amount of lift and with the system undergoing such rapid deepening to our west we will really see the LLJ crank. The LLJ coming in off the Atlantic at >50 knots is going to yield a tremendous amount of moisture streaming into the system and with a flux of much warmer and higher dewpoint air, the air is going to be capable of holding a pretty good deal of moisture. I wouldn't be shocked if some locations exceed 5'' of rainfall. Unfortunately, I agree with you completely. My only hope is that Whiteface is far enough west to avoid the worst of the rains, but anyway you slice it it's ugly. Have to hope for a few inches of backend/upslope to kickstart the recovery efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The ski areas should recover rapidly after this system with both upslope and the next system which should have more resistance from cold up in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The para depiction is very euro esque today at 12Z. Or at least 0Z euro esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Unfortunately, I agree with you completely. My only hope is that Whiteface is far enough west to avoid the worst of the rains, but anyway you slice it it's ugly. Have to hope for a few inches of backend/upslope to kickstart the recovery efforts. It will be interesting to really see where the axis of the heaviest rains sets up. I would think we would be looking at several different maximums taking into account upslope effect and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The para depiction is very euro esque today at 12Z. Or at least 0Z euro esque. Is the Para running again? I heard it was down for maintenance after the 12z run yesterday and it was expected to be out through the weekend, maybe you're looking at yesterdays 12z run? Not seeing it updated on any of the sources I use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It will be interesting to really see where the axis of the heaviest rains sets up. I would think we would be looking at several different maximums taking into account upslope effect and such. I think we're going to see the highest totals in NNH/NME in the Wildcat-SR-Sugarloaf corridor, that's really been ground zero on modeling for the heaviest rains. There will also be a western max somewhere I think, but whether that's in the Greens or Adirondacks I'm not sure, depends on how much of the system is able to "transfer"(Not really a traditional transfer so that's why it's in quotes) over to the coastal part of it, the more of it transfers, the further east that max is I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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