Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Looks like mostly snow across MI.. No, at least not where the gist of the precipitation is 126hr: 132hr: 138hr: Total Precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 GGEM meteogram has around 10 mm snow for Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 GGEM meteogram has around 10 mm snow for Detroit There's some snow at the end, but it's mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 GGEM meteogram has around 10 mm snow for Detroit We and everything else showing the snow must be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Powerball is technically right about it being more rain than not (especially the farther east you go), but that would still be a nice hit of snow after it changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 We and everything else showing the snow must be wrong I wouldn't consider 0.40" of snow out of 1.5"-2" of QPF "mostly snow." Even in the areas that do pick up the most snow on that run, half of their total QPF is still rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's one run if a crappy model, I don't think it is worth dying on the gem hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Powerball is technically right about it being more rain than not (especially the farther east you go), but that would still be a nice hit of snow after it changes over. Now it is still possible with this system (in some areas) that we can rely on wet bulbing to cool the above freezing temps enough for mostly snow, as the temps aren't THAT warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I wouldn't consider 0.40" of snow out of 1.5"-2" of QPF "mostly snow." Even in the areas that do pick up the most snow on that run, half of their total QPF is still rain. I know I know, I was just messing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Figured this would best illustrate how tracking this storm has been up to this point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 ECMWF says "hey, I was just playing when I lost the Lakes bomb" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Bears some resemblance to the 17/00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro trying to get back to the older solutions...stronger srn stream wave. Bombing out...971mb NE of Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nice to see both the PGFS and Euro both bombing out on the same run. Big difference in placement with certain features, but not surprising this far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro looks pretty close the the 0z GEM snow swath. Good hit for most of MI 2-4" for eastern IN/western OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nice to see both the PGFS and Euro both bombing out on the same run. Big difference in placement with certain features, but not surprising this far off. If the trend is coming back to the stronger/potentially bomb solutions, the NAM will surely offer up some good runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I approve very very very much of the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 With how the 00z Euro handles this storm (moving it along), the door is going to be open for the next one to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 With how the 00z Euro handles this storm (moving it along), the door is going to be open for the next one to come north. Which is does in a big "Sioux City" way.. As the trof/wave eject into the plains it kind of wants to shear itself out/have the wave run quickly NE along the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Which is does in a big "Sioux City" way.. As the trof/wave eject into the plains it kind of wants to shear itself out/have the wave run quickly NE along the baroclinic zone. Looks like it's sub 990 mb over Lake Superior at 216 hours. Active period...going to be a tough stretch for NWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I approve very very very much of the Euro Agreed. The euro has been very consistent in dropping the PNA even further into negative territory after the bomb, as it does so a ridge develops just behind the 1st storm helping to push it along. As it flattens the ridge on the NW side it strengthens the ridge in the SE. If its right with the deeper -PNA I believe that somewhere along and north of I-80 with see major snows with the second wave, I like north of I-90 better but a bit south is possible as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I approve very very very much of the Euro +1 although ill be in Miami Oo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Anyone have QPF? at least for KDTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The euro ensembles follow right along with the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That Euro control run takes a rather similar track to the Great Storm of 1913, and is stronger pressure wise. Absolutely ripping winds running the length of Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The euro ensembles follow right along with the euro.. Yeah the control is nuts takes it down 34mb in 24 hours going from ATL to YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Had to post this just for posterity sake: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Anyone have QPF? at least for KDTW? Well, here it goes. The 00z ECWMF brings back the goods for Toledo and Detroit, similar look to the Blizzard of 78, that is, without the super cold air. I think the QPF for Detroit is about 1.46", some of it rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Had to post this just for posterity sake: Hello?! Canadian friends? GTA peeps? Can you say blizzard? I know that word is forbidden here, but that's what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Had to post this just for posterity sake: Might have to fire up the generator for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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