Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Smallish redflag that we haven't had one solution thus far that has even a decent swath of moderate snow? A couple GFS runs early on did in Northern Lower MI and the UP of MI, but that was it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Trough is definitely deeper and slower at H5 compared to the 18z run, but I'm not sure the differences are big enough to turn this thing into a prolific snow producer. Yeah the GFS is a complete washout. A true Grinch storm, lol. My neighbour rants everyday about how Christmas used to be so white and wintry way back in the days (60s, 70s, 80s) and sometimes it can get annoying. -_- An outcome like what the GFS is showing would throw him over the board. Still alot of pieces to sort out but hopefully things turn for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Anyone in lower MI, don't look at the parallel GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 And of course, the 00z GFS solution also manages to screw up whatever potential there is with the 27th shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah the GFS is a complete washout. A true Grinch storm, lol. My neighbour rants everyday about how Christmas used to be so white and wintry way back in the days (60s, 70s, 80s) and sometimes it can get annoying. -_- An outcome like what the GFS is showing would throw him over the board. Still alot of pieces to sort out but hopefully things turn for the better. Slight deviations but the one constant seems to be that the H5 low closes off around northern WI and then deepens/goes neg tilt on a ENE/NE trajectory from there. Very tough to get decent snows for us when the ul is that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 And of course, the 00z GFS solution also manages to screw up whatever potential there is with the 27th shortwave. The run isn't out far enough ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Sfc low on parallel GFS passes over Chicago in full bomb mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Anyone in lower MI not in Madison, WI, don't look at the parallel GFS. FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The run isn't out far enough ? I was looking at the NCEP maps, which were out to 177hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Sfc low on parallel GFS passes over Chicago in full bomb mode. Hours 120-150 it's almost exactly following the eastern IL border, up into Lake Michigan, hovering around the eastern Wisconsin border as it does so, then hanging on the eastern border of Michigan's U.P. Fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The run isn't out far enough ? It wasn't, but it still looks like it'll be a turd. And a warm turd at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Slight deviations but the one constant seems to be that the H5 low closes off around northern WI and then deepens/goes neg tilt on a ENE/NE trajectory from there. Very tough to get decent snows for us when the ul is that far north. Yeah true. I have yet to see a run that shows a true winter storm for us. Lack of blocking plays a crucial role in this storms evolution. Without it, we don't have any sustained cold air in the region and the storm track ends up being to far north. Unless the northern stream can dig further south, we don't have much to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 FYP. Rhinelander says hi (but they've already had more than their fair share of snow this year, it's time to spread the wealth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It wasn't, but it still looks like it'll be a turd. And a warm turd at that. That's an impressive baroclinic zone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It wasn't, but it still looks like it'll be a turd. And a warm turd at that. Parallel GFS is better looking for the 26th-27th, but still warm for you and I. Decent hit for Chicago to Saginaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Parallel GFS is somewhat better looking, but still warm for you and I. Gotta love El Nino's, lol. Well atleast it gets colder after this storm. Parallel GFS looks like a cold dreary Christmas for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Parallel GFS is better looking for the 26th-27th, but still warm for you and I. Decent hit for Chicago to Saginaw. Lots of time for that one to get sorted out. In the meantime, I'll enjoy the fact that I likely won't be losing much sleep heading into my Christmas festivities because of the #santabomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Gotta love El Nino's, lol. Well atleast it gets colder after this storm. Parallel GFS looks like a cold dreary Christmas for most of us. 14.4" on the year in this POS pattern. Count your blessings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Par-GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Smallish redflag that we haven't had one solution thus far that has even a decent swath of moderate snow? Lack of true cold/arctic air entrainment is a bummer. It could have been a contender. Still, might be a fascinating storm to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Lots of time for that one to get sorted out. In the meantime, I'll enjoy the fact that I likely won't be losing much sleep heading into my Christmas festivities because of the #santabomb. It is a shame though that, besides the increasing probability that we're going to have a brown-ish Christmas, we may have to worry about power outages as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Anyone holding out hope for the Xmas storm is going to be disappointed, unless you really like wind. It is warm with marginal snow potential. Hopefully it will be interesting enough to distract from the crappy Xmas wx. The better chance will come with the trailing wave which has the potential to bring a decent stripe of snow to the forum depending on where the baroclinic zone sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 00z GGEM sorta looks like it merges the follow up storm with the Christmas storm. What a clown show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Anyone holding out hope for the Xmas storm is going to be disappointed, unless you really like wind. It is warm with marginal snow potential. Hopefully it will be interesting enough to distract from the crappy Xmas wx. The better chance will come with the trailing wave which has the potential to bring a decent stripe of snow to the forum depending on where the baroclinic zone sets up. We just need the X-mas bomb to get out of the way quickly (to the NE) to not suppress that following potential system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 00z GGEM sorta looks like it merges the follow up storm with the Christmas storm. What a clown show. It doesn't look to bad for most of the sub-forum. Precip type maps aren't out yet, but it looks like some decent snow, does it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 MI would do quite well with the GGEM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Verbatim, the 00z GEM is still a bit too warm, but by far much closer to something quite nice than most of the other solutions. It appears to have a somewhat stronger southern stream wave than the other models, which may explain its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Verbatim, the 00z GEM is still a bit too warm, but by far much closer to something quite nice than most of the other solutions. It appears to have a somewhat stronger southern stream wave than the other models, which may explain its solution. Too warm for where? Looks like mostly snow across MI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Total GGEM snowfall through 174 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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