blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The 18z GFS Ensemble mean is actually further west then the 12z ECM Ensemble mean. Don't see that every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I forgot to post this earlier, Accuweather published this map this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I forgot to post this earlier, Accuweather published this map this morning: crackuwx.jpg Not sure I've seen that storm track on any of the models. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I forgot to post this earlier, Accuweather published this map this morning: crackuwx.jpg That was actually posted yesterday and has since been changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That was actually posted yesterday and has since been changed. Even so, a little premature, don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Even so, a little premature, don't you think? Consider the source... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Anybody else notice how the PGFS has had 6 runs in a row now with the low at around 985mb in central / east kentucky then bombing to around 968mb over lake huron? It's been a lot more consistent than the other models that are changing by hundreds of miles each run, hope it's onto something and not on something lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Meh... I've seen much worse from Accuweather. I wouldn't call "snowstorm threat" too much hype. Plus you want to get the word out that something's coming that will affect a large part of the eastern US in some form or another around the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I realize that it's a holiday and the possibility of a storm with huge implications, so Accuweather wants to get the word out as early as they can. However, they could have been more realistic about it, saying something like, "Adverse weather could have an impact anywhere east of the Mississippi and north of the Tennessee Valley. It is much too early to accurately predict the intensity, track, or even number of storms, especially by us." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I realize that it's a holiday and the possibility of a storm with huge implications, so Accuweather wants to get the word out as early as they can. However, they could have been more realistic about it, saying something like, "Adverse weather could have an impact anywhere east of the Mississippi and north of the Tennessee Valley. It is much too early to accurately predict the intensity, track, or even number of storms, especially by us." It doesn't generate clicks and subscriptions for them. People aren't going to check their website when they see that type of language... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I forgot to post this earlier, Accuweather published this map this morning: crackuwx.jpg oh did I tell you, I'm interning for accuwx map graphics this year. Get use to looking at those app runners. I like the name you gave the file....crackuwx.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I will say Accuweather Pro is awesome, I love using their forecast model images. Very well organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I forgot to post this earlier, Accuweather published this map this morning: crackuwx.jpg Looks accurate..maybe to far east. Consistent with LOT's Izzi write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 MY THOUGHTS ...ON DEC 24-25 SUPER BOMB? https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/boooooom-baby-nothing-but-boooom/790320607681866 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 almost at that point where we can start 84 hr nam 500 map extrapolation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Very impressive upper jet will be slamming into the west coast in a few days...upwards of 180 kts on the models. Not something that happens routinely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Very impressive upper jet will be slamming into the west coast in a few days...upwards of 180 kts on the models. Not something that happens routinely. yeah...and actually the jet has pretty dang hefty over the pac for awhile considering just transitioning from nov to dec....between nuri and the jet, there have been some nice anomalies brewing over the last few months out west in the big blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 almost at that point where we can start 84 hr nam 500 map extrapolation.... FWIW, the DGEX (basically the NAM extrapolated) does have a pretty decent snowstorm for many of us with the 12/27 potential system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm patiently waiting to start looking at the HRRR. Joking aside, at least we have something to watch. At this point, i would be happy with a few inches of mood snow just to top of the Christmas holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I love reading this forum during the winter. Summer convection there is only so much you can look at, but in the winter, there is infinite information to look at and it is great to have a wide range of people contributing to the discussion to gather as much information as possible. I look at it the other way around so I'm wondering what you mean by so much to look at and infinite information? We can take this somewhere else as to not clutter this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Seeing some positive signs on the 00z GFS at 78 hours. Let's see if we can take a step toward something better on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Seeing some positive signs on the 00z GFS at 78 hours. Let's see if we can take a step toward something better on this run. Yeah definitely stronger and a semblance of a low forming in the Arklatex region at 105. I think this should be a hot run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 even by H18 GFS is handling Pac energy differently than H18 of the NAM...muchas variability---as Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Seeing some positive signs on the 00z GFS at 78 hours. Let's see if we can take a step toward something better on this run. A step in the right direction, but still no cigar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah definitely stronger and a semblance of a low forming in the Arklatex region at 105. I think this should be a hot run. Looks like a washout at 111 hrs, lol. Hopefully we can see more action with the secondary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Trough is definitely deeper and slower at H5 compared to the 18z run, but I'm not sure the differences are big enough to turn this thing into a prolific snow producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Cliche I guess, but there are so many moving parts to this set up...that I doubt any model will have a full grasp of everything right now. Fun to watch the solutions as they roll out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Too bad the CAA behind the initial cold front isn't stronger. Otherwise this could have been a better anafrontal snow setup once the secondary storm gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Cliche I guess, but there are so many moving parts to this set up...that I doubt any model will have a full grasp of everything right now. Fun to watch the solutions as they roll out though. Smallish redflag that we haven't had one solution thus far that has even a decent swath of moderate snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Smallish redflag that we haven't had one solution thus far that has even a decent swath of moderate snow?This storm really never had a look of big snows in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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