Jonger Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 well this is disappointing all around LES storm still intact. That's the beauty of LES, the storm can miss you... but then it doesn't miss you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 LES storm still intact. That's the beauty of LES, the storm can miss you... but then it doesn't miss you. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44857-lake-effect-snow-belts-discussion-thread/page-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44857-lake-effect-snow-belts-discussion-thread/page-12 It is all part of this storm. Give him a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It is all part of this storm. Give him a break. i'm just messing with my buddy, jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well, 12z Euro should offer up another solution (may still not be that good though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z EURO: Southern stream storm on the EC at 144. 996ish. Not going to get er done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well, 12z Euro should offer up another solution (may still not be that good though) Its not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Its not. Looks deeper/farther west in Canada at 168 compared to 00z. That does nothing for most here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 965mb over YUL at hour 162 on the 12z Euro. CCB a little further west but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks deeper/farther west in Canada at 168 compared to 00z. That does nothing for most here though. Yeah it actually ends up impacting the other storm coming up the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Surface low drops almost 30 mb in less than 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 965mb over YUL at hour 162 on the 12z Euro. CCB a little further west but not much. I'll take a dusting and mood flakes for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 New name: Christmas Turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'll take a dusting and mood flakes for Christmas. Then it dumps over half a foot of +SN on boxing day. 989 near Erie, PA... Weenie-tastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 New name: Christmas TurdLet's just call it Winter Storm Mr Hankey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 LES storm still intact. That's the beauty of LES, the storm can miss you... but then it doesn't miss you. Why should a snowstorm lover be thrilled about a NW or W flow LES event if they're not immediately downwind of a lake?In fact, why should anyone in Michigan east of I-69 be thrilled about LES if they want big snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Why should a snowstorm lover in Chicago be thrilled about a NW or W flow LES event? In fact, hy should anyone in Michigan east of I-69 be thrilled about LES if they want big snows? Well, South Bend is just a short bend around the bottom of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Dreaming of Santa's arrival is normally better than the real thing. It was fun while it lasted, till the next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Save us EURO ensembles! Save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 LES storm still intact. That's the beauty of LES, the storm can miss you... but then it doesn't miss you. Looking good ... I am all in for a major LES event ... even if it isn't MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Decent agreement between the GFS Parallel and the GEM with a 3 storm approach. 1st - A 22-23th mostly rain storm up the east coast and out to sea. 2nd - A 24th Ohio Valley low. 3rd - A 26th Low moving through northern Indiana. They basically take the triple phaser from yesterdays runs and split it into 3 separate storms and spread the wealth. As was mentioned earlier, I also am not ready to latch on to any solutions until we get some better sampling, but if we don't get the bomb, this 2 or 3 storm solution seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Save us EURO ensembles! Save us! Huge spread with an ENS mean track from WV to Kingston. The wave packet moved east by quite a bit compared to the 0z run which was east of 12z yesterday on the ENS mean. The trend is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'm riding the Canadian as a compromise. Izzi with a voice of reason: JUST AFFECTED JAPAN...SO IT HAS A LONG FAIRLY AND DATA SPARSE REGION OF THE PACIFIC TO TRAVERSE BEFORE ARRIVING IN OUR AREA. AS IS TYPICAL WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES...THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF THE DETAILS OF THIS CYCLONE/DEVELOPING TROUGH AND WOULD ANTICIPATE FURTHER CHANGES IN LATER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS POINT...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STORMIER AND EVENTUALLY COLDER PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A RAIN/SHOWER EVENT EARLY IN THE WEEK TRANSITIONING TO MORE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. LATEST RUNS REALLY ARENT LOOKING TOO FOREBODING FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BUT AT THIS POINT WOULD REALLY CAUTION ABOUT LATCHING ONTO ANY ONE SOLUTION AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE COMING DAYS. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Huge spread with an ENS mean track from WV to Kingston. The wave packet moved east by quite a bit compared to the 0z run which was east of 12z yesterday on the ENS mean. The trend is clear. Verbatim, the mean track would be pretty sweet for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Gets down to around 965 mb over Lake Huron on the parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Gets down to around 965 mb over Lake Huron on the parallel. Looks like the trof carves out a little further west initially and the srn wave is sharper. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 There are plenty of options on the table for this timeframe....good and bad obviously....but so many crazy little and big details coming together can make a huge difference one way or the other... splash in the fact that we haven't had a winter big dog with gulf feed in awhile and I'm still totally on board for tracking this sucker.... reading over most of the offices' AFDs...they all seem to have similar sentiments to IZZI at LOT....picture has become clearer in some aspects with many aspects to go still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 18z GFS ensembles aren't that bad...could be better, could be worse (talking in general, not backyard specific). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 18z GFS ensembles aren't that bad...could be better, could be worse (talking in general, not backyard specific). best in quite a few runs. nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.