Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah the second storm is allowed to be stronger this run and ends up being a fairly strong cutter starting from the NW TX PH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Oh i know but still dread seeing that track.. Will be interesting to see what the euro ensembles do? And they too are on the decline.. The problem is two fold.. The northern energy does not dig ( go south ) far enough and so the southern energy does not get picked up quick enough allowing it to go further east before it round the base and head up ( east of the apps ) for a later meeting/phase. A number of ensemble members do still show what the 12z euro had but nothing like the 12z ensembles had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 the bomb transitioning into a glorified northern-tracking clipper was the most likely 'what could go wrong' scenario. Not shocked. for now on, unless the ggem is on board, I'm not taking the train....that's twice in a row now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 And they too are on the decline.. The problem is two fold.. The northern energy does not dig ( go south ) far enough and so the southern energy does not get picked up quick enough allowing it to go further east before it round the base and head up ( east of the apps ) for a later meeting/phase. A number of ensemble members do still show what the 12z euro had but nothing like the 12z ensembles had. well at least it's warm and a rainstorm when it does finally phase. I'd puke if this turned into an HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 the bomb transitioning into a glorified northern-tracking clipper was the most likely 'what could go wrong' scenario. Not shocked. for now on, unless the ggem is on board, I'm not taking the train....that's twice in a row now If this storm goes the Canadian way, I'll be with you on using it as the canary in the coal mine. If it is storm fail, the kicker could do some damage. In the meantime, I haven't given up hope for a near-bomb. EDIT: I haven't looked, but I'll bet the New York weenies are drooling over the GGEM. It destroys a portion of eastern NY/NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If this storm goes the Canadian way, I'll be with you on using it as the canary in the coal mine. If it is storm fail, the kicker could do some damage. In the meantime, I haven't given up hope for a near-bomb. I hope you're right, but from my weenie anecdotal experience, when models depict a phased powerhouse in the long range, and then loose it, it's usually lost for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 One thing to take away from the 0z GFS/EURO is that both do eventually get the southern stream involved, just much later than yesterday's 12z runs. It's more of a timing issue than a fundamental shift in how the storm is going to unfold. For 7 days out, neither model has shown what I think is flagrant discontinuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 One thing to take away from the 0z GFS/EURO is that both do eventually get the southern stream involved, just much later than yesterday's 12z runs. It's more of a timing issue than a fundamental shift in how the storm is going to unfold. For 7 days out, neither model has shown what I think is flagrant discontinuity. The 0z EC ensembles agree. Most members are delayed but not denied in terms of phasing. The mean takes the SLP centre from W AL to cinc to Barrie and up near Val D'or. They are clearly struggling as that is a big move from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 One thing to take away from the 0z GFS/EURO is that both do eventually get the southern stream involved, just much later than yesterday's 12z runs. It's more of a timing issue than a fundamental shift in how the storm is going to unfold. For 7 days out, neither model has shown what I think is flagrant discontinuity. True that. Doesn't it seem like we are constantly battling phasing timing in these setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If this storm goes the Canadian way, I'll be with you on using it as the canary in the coal mine. If it is storm fail, the kicker could do some damage. In the meantime, I haven't given up hope for a near-bomb. EDIT: I haven't looked, but I'll bet the New York weenies are drooling over the GGEM. It destroys a portion of eastern NY/NE PA. Canadian was the ONLY model to show a whiff to the southeast and OTS like 7 days out for this weekend, so to me, it is not to be ignored completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 True that. Doesn't it seem like we are constantly battling phasing timing in these setups? Pretty much. Moving parts are always a b**ch for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Agree 100%. You have both camps...those who are going to see the most extreme solution (ie the Euro) and simply assume that it will be snow even though the verbatum shows majority rain, basically wishcasting their way to a '78 blizzard redux. Then of course you have those thinking it is just a fantasy non-event, or will indeed be rain because the cold supposedly isnt there (even though strong storms can make their own cold to an extent). There is so much agreement, Im sure SOME kind of storm will be here, and regardless of what the storm does, I am liking the timing at this juncture (again, even timing is subject to speeding up or slowing down, perhaps even a full day). Even if it is a rainstorm, chances appear high that wraparound snow and LES will be a great bet, and that would put us right smack dab on Christmas Day. We have 4 more months to get snowstorms, but only TWO days (Dec 24-25) when 90% of the public joins us in wanting snow There is no doubt that there is so much agreement, and this is looking like a big system. At this point, I am looking at rain, wind, and some back-end snow. Things can change, we may get a bit of snow on the front end, maybe not. However, we never do well in these parts with ran-to-snow events, with cold air, and wrap around snow on the back end. That is why I am looking at this as that sort of event. Tuesday is supposed to be rain/snow mix. Heading in to Tuesday, temps around here are supposed to be somewhere in or near the 40's, and then they start falling Tuesday. Now, the forecast has changed a bit, with snow showers being forecast, when yesterday, they were forecasting for a dry but potentially windy Wednesday. So, yeah, this thing will change, and what we wind up with remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 diagnostics from last night... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD138 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014VALID DEC 18/0000 UTC THRU DEC 21/1200 UTCSHORTWAVES ENTERING THE NWRN U.S. THROUGH SUN MORNING~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON 00Z CMC COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE FAST MID FLOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CAMAKES IDENTIFYING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW DIFFICULT BYSAT/SUN. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES CAN BERESOLVED...WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING SLIGHTLY FLATTER FLOW INTOTHE PAC NW...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET MORE AMPLIFIED. A BLEND OFTHESE TWO CAMPS SEEMS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME...WHILE THE 00Z CMCAPPEARS TO BE LEAST SUPPORTED IN A WEAKER...MORENORTHERN...PLACEMENT OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND VORTICITY ENERGYENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...UNLIKE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 0z/6z runs were lame, hoping we flip back to something at the least more interesting with 12z EDIT: 12z looking to have better quality trough compared to 0z/6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 0z/6z runs were lame, hoping we flip back to something at the least more interesting with 12z EDIT: 12z looking to have better quality trough compared to 0z/6z being imby-centric, i would have taken the 6z. 12z may be lame all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 being imby-centric, i would have taken the 6z. 12z may be lame all around. it is, swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks like a lot of lighter wind driven snows for most in the subforum for the holiday via the 12Z GFS....some do better than others in the accums department... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 it is, swing and a miss H5 low closing off around GRB is not helpful for most of us. Going to need that to shift south a fair bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 more great shots of the ugly turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 well this is disappointing all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks like a lot of lighter wind driven snows for most in the subforum for the holiday via the 12Z GFS....some do better than others in the accums department... Flizzard ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Flizzard ... Dustingbomb 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The storm just stalls out in Northern Ontario and it becomes an all out blizzard around Hudson bay, lol. It sort of becomes a blocking pattern which may push the second storm behind it further south. Models are doing a poor job handling the shortwaves and as a result were getting some wacky solutions. I'd rather wait till we get some decent sampling before jumping onto any model solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Dustingbomb 2014 Funny thing it is quite possible we would do well with LES in our area but there is basically 6 days to go and these models have been lately so it should/hopefully be fun to see how this actually turns out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GEM is messy. Has the primary track east of Lk MI, then secondary develops and tracks from BWI-PHL-YGK-YOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GEM looks pretty solid. Southern sfc low develops near Memphis then moves ENE on a track over/just west of Indy to Kalamazoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 the 12z GEM is the best run for MBY all winter, that's not saying much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The Uncle has a 993 mb low in E KY at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Massive swing in the GGEM, but not all that surprising as some of its ensembles had been on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Massive swing in the GGEM, but not all that surprising as some of its ensembles had been on board. You mentioned last night that some of the members were on board, but man, what a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.