extremewx52 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The jet energy associated with this system caused some turbulence related injuries near Japan yesterday, the Euro showed 200kt jet coming off the coast of Japan yesterday around the time of the turbulence. More about the story here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/16/huge-storm-near-northern-japan-linked-to-injuries-on-american-airlines-flight-from-turbulence/ This beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would be nice to get the Pac flights to try to get this one nailed down more quickly if possible. Could hardly pick worse days of the year for widespread travel disruption/societal impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would be nice to get the Pac flights to try to get this one nailed down more quickly if possible. Could hardly pick worse days of the year for widespread travel disruption/societal impact. Especially since I'm flying into O'Hare the morning of Christmas Eve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The latest GFS is coming in further south with the clipper at 117hrs. Could be interesting for the storm to follow. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Especially since I'm flying into O'Hare the morning of Christmas Eve! I'll be on shift there that morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The latest GFS is coming in further south with the clipper at 117hrs. Could be interesting for the storm to follow. Lets see! Looks northern stream dominant. Main storm may be even further east than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Windshield wiper for the next few days should be NY to MSP. Tons of energy diving down and this won't begin to be resolved until Sunday/Monday. Big storm but location is in question. A nice lesson for Ensembles is to look at the most recent east coast storm. Nearly all the member had a very amplified solution near the coast (NJ/NY) at this time frame, it is going to be a slider off the coast so ensemble support at times doesn't equate to accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 00z parallel GFS gonna be at odds with the op GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 00z parallel GFS gonna be at odds with the op GFS again. I will buy the parallel, the old GFS is too flat and has too poor of resolution to get the subtle shortwaves resolved correctly. The old GFS just sees everything as sheared shortwaves vs consolidated shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'll be on shift there that morning Don't lowball the snow totals, and make sure my flight gets in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Don't lowball the snow totals, and make sure my flight gets in Too funny. All most woke up my wife with laughter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I've been lurking since the early days of Eastern. Signed up here a few years ago and just decided to start posting. We'll see how it goes. I'll contribute where/when I can. Welcome! Looking forward to hearing your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks northern stream dominant. Main storm may be even further east than the 18z. Yeah the GFS is known to move the S/W out too quickly or too slowly. The GFS is mishandling the shortwaves and the timing badly. Strangely enough, it develops a secondary low off the cold front which in turn becomes a retrograding Nor'Easter and some areas end up seeing some decent snow. Odd solution. Wouldn't bank on it. edit: The pressure is down to 964mb near the Hudson Bay, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 00z parallel GFS gonna be at odds with the op GFS again. Still too late for most that matter.. Issue is the northern energy which does not drop far enough south. To get the bomb ( like the euro ) the northern energy is gonna have to go further south like it did on the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Still too late for most that matter.. Issue is the northern energy which does not drop far enough south. To get the bomb ( like the euro ) the northern energy is gonna have to go further south like it did on the euro.. Well the clipper is further south on this run than the 18z, but its mishandling the southern energy and moves it out too quickly. Therefore, no phase and we get some odd solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 PGFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 WPC's evening take thus far...informative and humorous EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1126 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014VALID 12Z SUN DEC 21 2014 - 12Z THU DEC 25 2014...STRONG SYSTEM POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY.....OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN TO THE US AS THE STRONG W PACIFICJET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDINGHEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THEOHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE OFF AS IT SWINGS INTOSOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEENFAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THEMOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TONEXT THURSDAY. ONGOING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS A TYPICALONE... WITH THE GEFS MEMBERS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE PATTERN THANTHE ECMWF MEMBERS. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR THESLOWER /ECMWF-LIKE/ SOLUTIONS BUT UPSTREAM PACIFIC ENERGY MAY BEENOUGH OF A KICKER TO KEEP THINGS MOVING. BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...GFS/ECMWF/GFS PARALLEL AND THEIR MEANS... SHOULD PROVE GOOD ENOUGHBUT OPTED TO USE THE BETTER CLUSTERED 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z PARALLELGFS WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH OFFERED A BIT MORE DETAIL.HOWEVER... DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT THE MODELS ALWAYS FIND A WAYTO CHANGE THE DETAILS... WHICH WAS ONE REASON FOR TRENDING TOWARDTHE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BY THURSDAY. MONTHLY RECORD LOW SEA LEVELPRESSURE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THECENTRAL GREAT LAKES -- WHICH ARE NEAR 970 IN THE UP OF MICHIGAN TOTHE LOW 980S IN N OHIO. DEEPEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN THE 950SMB RANGE WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE.ALSO BY LATE IN THE PERIOD IS UPSTREAM KICKER ENERGY THAT MAY DIVEDOWN INTO THE WEST. 12Z ECMWF REPRESENTS ABOUT THE STRONGEST SIDEOF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SPAGHETTI CHARTSOVER THE PACIFIC LOOK LIKE ABSTRACT ART... A TREND TOWARD THEMEANS /ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THIS CASE/ WORKED WELL AT BOTH ENDSOF THE CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 WPC's evening take thus far...informative and humorous Would be pretty impressive if we get 2 really deep lows in the Lakes a month apart. I will post the December pressure records for various places as I did with the November storm if it looks like they will be approached/broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 fwiw.... it looks like the only dropsondes that were done this evening were in the GOM around 22Z...so that shouldn't really do much to resolve anything for this thread's system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Euro might look a little different tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Kisses the storm goodbye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol Euro goes more northern stream dominant like the op GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nobody really thought we would get through this without some drama, did ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nobody really thought we would get through this without some drama, did ya? Just seeing that track near the coast and very late phase makes me wanna puke.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Euro is about ready to blow at 168...probably will be a late bloomer like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Even with this scenario there's still over 50hrs of light snow at many locations. Would still be better than the last 3-4 weeks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Just seeing that track near the coast and very late phase makes me wanna puke.. lol Yeah but the EC clowns don't get squat on this run either. Winners are central/northern WI up to DLH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah but the EC clowns don't get squat on this run either. Winners are central/northern WI up to DLH. Oh i know but still dread seeing that track.. Will be interesting to see what the euro ensembles do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Even with this scenario there's still over 50hrs of light snow at many locations. Would still be better than the last 3-4 weeks lol. And then it gets wiped out by the follow up storm unless you're north...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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