cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Super amped RGEM probably the best case scenario for the DVN area. Definitely an outlier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Here is the 12z PGFS snow map. In red I outlined the heaviest snow swath on the op GFS parallel gfs.png Looks like a Burlington, WI jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Noticed with the PGFS, the wind turns offshore during the most intense part of the storm, so any question whether the marine air would cut down on accumulation would be confined to IN. If the below scenario were to happen, Alek would get snow for his backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Also looks like the GFS has sped back up a bit as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Noticed with the PGFS, the wind turns offshore during the most intense part of the storm, so any question whether the marine air would cut down on accumulation would be confined to IN. If the below scenario were to happen, Alek would get snow for his backyard. Yep, as I mentioned to Hoosier last night, sfc winds back around pretty quickly so winds aren't really off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Also looks like the GFS has sped back up a bit as well Yeah, wouldn't mind it slowing down so the heaviest precip occurs after dark. Maybe a marginal concern, but may help accums a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Would it be wrong to cheer for a good storm IMBY not for the snow but for its ability to keep certain family away? Reading this thread has been entertaining to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z 4km NAM sort of reminds me of 12/1/06. Hoosier had mentioned it was on the list. Why am I seeing something totally different on the NCEP NAM runs, it has this whole mass WAY east. P-type for the second wave is all the way over to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Why am I seeing something totally different on the NCEP NAM runs, it has this whole mass WAY east. P-type for the second wave is all the way over to me. You're looking at the primary NAM, and this is the hi-res 4km NAM, two different models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Would it be wrong to cheer for a good storm IMBY not for the snow but for its ability to keep certain family away? Haha! Can't blame you there. Tough forecast coming up for several NWS offices. Even ~48hrs out it's still hard to pin down a general area and be confident with it. Anywhere from Indy back to the QC is still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You're looking at the primary NAM, and this is the hi-res 4km NAM, two different models. So they are both coming up with a solution that varies by 200 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 So they are both coming up with a solution that varies by 200 miles? Yeah pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Would it be wrong to cheer for a good storm IMBY not for the snow but for its ability to keep certain family away? Reading this thread has been entertaining to say the least With it looking like a daytime storm it might keep some travelers at home! Waiting to see some of the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Haha! Can't blame you there. Tough forecast coming up for several NWS offices. Even ~48hrs out it's still hard to pin down a general area and be confident with it. Anywhere from Indy back to the QC is still in the game. Understatement lol. Unusually high uncertainty/low confidence this close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 With it looking like a daytime storm it might keep some travelers at home! Waiting to see some of the soundings. GFS soundings verbatim are going to be warm and look very marginal for snow, which can be seen on the COBB outputs. However, the GFS is showing very impressive frontogenesis and omega in the deformation axis, which results in the high qpf values. Also to start, there is some negative EPV present. In this sort of setup, the marginal BL conditions are typically overcome by dynamic cooling to favor snow as the p-type. Models do not handle it well, so mid 30s 2m temp and dewpoints the model is showing would likely be forced down to low 30s by the heavy precipitation in reality. A good recent example of this was the snowstorm on 2/7/13 in northeast IL and southern WI. If I can figure out how to upload some AWIPS screen caps I took from the 12z OP GFS, I'll put them up as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Understatement lol. Unusually high uncertainty/low confidence this close to an event. Given this is the peak of the holiday travel time (and potentially the biggest snow event of the season), what are the chances of you guys issuing a Winter Storm Watch for your CWA? What are you looking for in the guidance to decide on pulling the trigger or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 So I don't understand most of the talk here. Far above my head. I live in NE Michigan in Presque Isle county. Can someone answer this: Are we screwed in terms of snowfall for Xmas eve and day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS soundings verbatim are going to be warm and look very marginal for snow, which can be seen on the COBB outputs. However, the GFS is showing very impressive frontogenesis and omega in the deformation axis, which results in the high qpf values. Also to start, there is some negative EPV present. In this sort of setup, the marginal BL conditions are typically overcome by dynamic cooling to favor snow as the p-type. Models do not handle it well, so mid 30s 2m temp and dewpoints the model is showing would likely be forced down to low 30s by the heavy precipitation in reality. A good recent example of this was the snowstorm on 2/7/13 in northeast IL and southern WI. If I can figure out how to upload some AWIPS screen caps I took from the 12z OP GFS, I'll put them up as an example. I remember that storm, and the one later that month that put down over a foot in Sheboygan, WI was another example I think in the early portion of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Given this is the peak of the holiday travel time (and potentially the biggest snow event of the season), what are the chances of you guys issuing a Winter Storm Watch for your CWA? What are you looking for in the guidance to decide on pulling the trigger or not? I highly doubt we issue a watch today. Possibly an SPS to highlight the potential but also the lingering uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 So they are both coming up with a solution that varies by 200 miles? I guess we have it narrowed down for snow somewhere between Rockford, IL and Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Understatement lol. Unusually high uncertainty/low confidence this close to an event. NTM everyone is on Christmas break looking / watching the weather trying to get to or planning some type of travel. What a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 clown map.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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