Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 6z op GFS and PGFS both still good hits for the Chicago area. If anything they are snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Probably too early to look at it in reliable fashion but 6z 4km NAM rapidly deepening the surface low already down to 992 mb on the KY/TN border at 54 hours...radically different than 00z run.988mb over Indy at 60hr and about to dump on northern IL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 West is still the way to go Looking wet for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 West is still the way to go Looking wet for mby Actually, trends are looking pretty good for NE IL right now and have been for the past few days if you look at the overall model picture (crazy solutions set aside), but there's very little room for movement. If we get plastered by a few inches of slop Xmas eve, it's obviously welcome, but even by midday Thursday it'll be drip drip drip out there.Edit: I do think where you'll be in McHenry County looks better. This is more of late fall/early winter type event, which the city rarely does well with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Actually, trends are looking pretty good for NE IL right now and have been for the past few days if you look at the overall model picture (crazy solutions set aside), but there's very little room for movement. If we get plastered by a few inches of slop Xmas eve, it's obviously welcome, but even by midday Thursday it'll be drip drip drip out there. Edit: I do think where you'll be in McHenry County looks better. This is more of late fall/early winter type event, which the city rarely does well with. I'm not going to drive out there is the weather is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 NAM will probably go west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Saying Chicago would be "ground zero" for big snow potential with this one probably wasn't a bad call in hindsight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 wagons west 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 without the two high pressures moving, if anything westward shifts funnel the cold air down faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Gosh the NAM is bad. Huge step west from last nights 0z run. Night and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Gosh the NAM is bad. Huge step west from last nights 0z run. Night and day The trough has been trending slightly better for a couple runs now, it's going to keep translating to a stronger/west surface low on the next few runs as well. Hi-res has the right idea here with the more aggressive deepening. RFD to moneyman call is looking so money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Actually the nam is now more similar in track to the euro & ukmet. The gfs far westward track is still the outlier. Any other time everyone would praise the EURO, especially when its been the only consistent model with its track lol. And no this is not a wish casting post, I have said from the start I expected nothing but some wraparound snow, hoping that would work out. Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Now the 12z GFS will take the low to West Virginia as a 1000 something mb low, just watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hopefully we can get a decent wound-up storm with as nice of a trowal as this one when there's colder air to work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Now the 12z GFS will take the low to West Virginia as a 1000 something mb low, just watch! 12z 4km is a rager for yby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z 4km is a rager for yby Yeah, I could ride that model if I wanted to, but it has less than a 2% chance of verifying. I could definitely buy into your last minute NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12Z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12Z RGEM RGEM has a tendency to be too amped at times, but that's a scary thought (esp after several runs where models have generally been too far east to give us anything0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Now the 12z GFS will take the low to West Virginia as a 1000 something mb low, just watch! not happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wouldn't mind a Chicago and SW Mich hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z 4km NAM sort of reminds me of 12/1/06. Hoosier had mentioned it was on the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS remains fairly consistent with an Alek bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 not happening... It's funny how you were MIA for a day and a half and the storm shifted east, then you reappeared and multiple models started shifting west again. If we both need another easterly/southeasterly shift, you know what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS remains fairly consistent with an Alek bullseye. 850 low too slow to tighten up, cold air conveyor belt never really establishes, mostly rain IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 850 low too slow to tighten up, cold air conveyor belt never really establishes, mostly rain IMBYI'll wait to see the soundings, but verbatim that looks like a wet snow with some rain mixed in, definitely not accumulating though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'll wait to see the soundings, but verbatim that looks like a wet snow with some rain mixed in, definitely not accumulating though. it looks like a low end advisory hit for the western burbs, we might get enough for a technical white xmas pgfs looks to continue to support the already consistent op with the big picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 If northern IL ends up with the hit then the GFS bros will have scored a huge win over the Euro. Euro hasn't showed anything that far west since when it first advertised the bomb about 4 days ago. Some of these scenarios would make for an extremely difficult forecast for the DVN area with a very sharp cutoff on the western edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 If anything the op GFS went a touch east with the snow swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's funny how you were MIA for a day and a half and the storm shifted east, then you reappeared and multiple models started shifting west again. If we both need another easterly/southeasterly shift, you know what to do. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Here is the 12z PGFS snow map. In red I outlined the heaviest snow swath on the op GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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