Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Geos has been busy all day down in the basement changing the oil in his patented snow magneto. This isn't going to be a major storm, but it will sure be a change from the usual this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It'll be interesting to see how much the lake plays in. I have a rooting interest in this as I will be in Lake county IN during this event. Have been looking at lake temps and they seem to be in the mid-upper 30s for the most part. Have to go to the eastern side of the lake to encounter readings above 40F. It's a marginal setup thermally but those lake temps are not really anything to write home about. Yeah something to watch. On this run though the winds starting backing around to the NW after 18z and start to advect slightly cooler air into northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/11/25/suburban-car-dealer-offering-free-cars-to-black-friday-buyers-if-it-snows-on-christmas/ Almost forgot about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Excited to see what the Euro shows tonight. Not ready to hop on the GFS until we see some decent move west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 UKMET P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif How's the Ukie been lately? I hardly look at that model anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 How's the Ukie been lately? I hardly look at that model anymore. Don't know about its performance in past events, but with this storm it's generally been weak with this main system, so seeing it cut is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 UKMET P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 UKMET P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Just 50-80 miles more East please, lol. Crazy how models are still not confined on an exact track with this system. Mother nature is good at trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 How's the Ukie been lately? I hardly look at that model anymore. 5-day 500mb height correlation puts it in second place, behind the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 00z GGEM similar to 12z, maybe just a tick east. Also seems like perhaps more generous with wraparound precip of some type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 5-day 500mb height correlation puts it in second place, behind the Euro. Which, obviously, doesn't always tell the whole story. IIRC it's always been up near the top on that particular metric... But get down to the surface and it probably somewhere between the GFS and GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 EURO remains consistent. 990mb low between Sandusky and Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 0z Euro tracks from around New Orleans up to a 990mb around Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Euro is king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 3-6" from southeast IL to LAF to Saginaw it looks like. It started west of the 12z run early on down near TN and then had a more NE movement than I would of thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 meteocentre website has this cool cyclone tracking feature for various models. I was looking at it for the GGEM. The red line coming out of the Gulf is the 00z run. I wonder if we'll get this kind of track as it's not that easy to get a NNE tracking Gulf low way up into Canada like that. There's some spread in where it goes though amongst the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 3-6" from southeast IL to LAF to Saginaw it looks like. It started west of the 12z run early on down near TN and then had a more NE movement than I would of thought. LOT might have a fun time with this one. Relatively small shifts could be make or break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Regardless of where this one goes, I don't see it having any significant accumulation with it. Sure, 850s are marginally below freezing, but there's a warm layer above freezing from the surface up to about 900mb. Poor surface temps coupled with rainfall and temps in the 40s the days leading up to the event do not spell meaningful accumulation. Just my two cents (or 100 rubles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Regardless of where this one goes, I don't see it having any significant accumulation with it. Sure, 850s are marginally below freezing, but there's a warm layer above freezing from the surface up to about 900mb. Poor surface temps coupled with rainfall and temps in the 40s the days leading up to the event do not spell meaningful accumulation. Just my two cents (or 100 rubles). Never want to ignore those factors, but if it snows hard enough it will stick with no problem. We've seen it time and time again. Assuming the models don't back off on having a healthy band of precip, whoever gets in the meat of that band won't have trouble getting it to accumulate imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Never want to ignore those factors, but if it snows hard enough it will stick with no problem. We've seen it time and time again. Assuming the models don't back off on having a healthy band of precip, whoever gets in the meat of that band won't have trouble getting it to accumulate imo. Yeah we hear it every year, it isn't going to snow because it was warm before the event or it rained before it. Every time that is brought up it is proven to be incorrect. Also that being said I don't think the temperatures are that marginal at 850mb either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm buying the eastern track (if that's what we're calling it) for now, but I'm still scratching my head over ensemble guidance's insistence on a westward shift. For example, here's the spread of the CMC ensembles, superimposed with the model itself. Note how the ensembles are stronger with the storm (not necessarily a surprise, since it is the CMC) and also a tick west of the model. Add to that 0z GFS ensemble guidance seemingly divided into two groups; one favoring the GFS OP track, the other trying to go through Lake Michigan (the latter arguably the favored group, in terms of number of members): The continued weakening of the trough and slower progression should favor a more eastern track. But then why are the ensembles in disagreement, merely a matter of hours away? Perhaps I'm not seeing something others are, but that's my 1AM head-scratcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah we hear it every year, it isn't going to snow because it was warm before the event or it rained before it. Every time that is brought up it is proven to be incorrect. Also that being said I don't think the temperatures are that marginal at 850mb either.Well, I don't think it's particularly fair to say that every time it is brought up it has proven to be incorrect...especially for us folks in the cities. And also, don't get me wrong-- I didn't refute it being able to snow, I refuted the chance of significant accumulation given warm surface temps and rain the day before.It is true though from 12z to 00z, the GFS has backed off a tad on the low level warming in the shallow layers of the atmosphere. Soundings indicate 850 temps around -3, warming as you get closer to the surface at hour 72. 12z had these temps more around -1.5 to -2. I guess it depends on your definition of marginal, but regardless I'd like to see cooler temps in the column before committing to those maps as representative of accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well, I don't think it's particularly fair to say that every time it is brought up it has proven to be incorrect...especially for us folks in the cities. And also, don't get me wrong-- I didn't refute it being able to snow, I refuted the chance of significant accumulation given warm surface temps and rain the day before. It is true though from 12z to 00z, the GFS has backed off a tad on the low level warming in the shallow layers of the atmosphere. Soundings indicate 850 temps around -3, warming as you get closer to the surface at hour 72. 12z had these temps more around -1.5 to -2. I guess it depends on your definition of marginal, but regardless I'd like to see cooler temps in the column before committing to those maps as representative of accumulating snowfall. -3c is fine at 850mb especially in December. This isn't a October/November or March/April setup. Early or late season marginal temps are fine this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 And the euro ensemble mean track is over Sandusky.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 And the euro ensemble mean track is over Sandusky.. With a good amount of members west of that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 With a good amount of members west of that track Yeah but the majority is from that point east.. Ofcourse we are talking 52 members if i recall correctly? Main thing is none are east of Cleveland nor west of this location.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 06z NAM came back west some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 06z NAM came back west some.. And is also stronger with backside precip. East IN/West OH get 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Probably too early to look at it in reliable fashion but 6z 4km NAM rapidly deepening the surface low already down to 992 mb on the KY/TN border at 54 hours...radically different than 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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