cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 PGFS even more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I-57 in IL does great this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Dynamic cooling weenie blob over Harry's house. lol Larry's lobbying hard with the snow gods I guess. So both GFS models continue to remain far more amped than all the other models. Figured by this 00z batch we'd start to see more consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Somebody should do a plot of NAM/GFS/pGFS surface low positions at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Dynamic cooling weenie blob over Harry's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 PGFS even more amped up. That is a beaut, too bad the GFS and PGFS are probably going to be schooled by the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Geos has been busy all day down in the basement changing the oil in his patented snow magneto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That is a beaut, too bad the GFS and PGFS are probably going to be schooled by the other models. Probably a much better chance of the NAM getting schooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Probably a much better chance of the NAM getting schooled. The NAM is about 500 miles SE on the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That is a beaut, too bad the GFS and PGFS are probably going to be schooled by the other models. Disagree. That looks like the track it is going to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 lol...I hope enough cold air would get mixed in to change all of west Michigan over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 lol...I hope enough cold air would get mixed in to change all of west Michigan over. If the GFS is right, you would have a shot at some good accumulation, all the way up to Gaylord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Probably a much better chance of the NAM getting schooled. Maybe the days of the NAM over-amping things are over? Doesn't seem to happen as often as it used to. Maybe they made some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Probably a much better chance of the NAM getting schooled. You're right, I guess I'd have to lean toward something like the 12z Euro at this point, a nice middleground between the 0z NAM and the recent GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Disagree. That looks like the track it is going to take. I disagree....the models are STILL all over the place, so I dont know how anyone can say it looks like this track or that track and til we have SOME kind of consensus starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You're right, I guess I'd have to lean toward something like the 12z Euro at this point, a nice middleground between the 0z NAM and the recent GFS runs. I've decided to ride Euro/Ensembles this winter. IMO it's the best by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Geos has been busy all day down in the basement changing the oil in his patented snow magneto. Meanwhile, Alek has been contemplating a trip to Phoenix, a true sign he's punting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Chicago still keeps % of possible sunshine records? I didnt think any place did anymore. And its a shame because I thought that was a pretty cool stat They don't. Those numbers all come from weather observer Frank Wachowski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Maybe the days of the NAM over-amping things are over? Doesn't seem to happen as often as it used to. Maybe they made some changes. When was the last upgrade to the NAM? I know it had those insanely over-amped solutions with the 3/12/14 storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Dynamic cooling weenie blob over Harry's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 When was the last upgrade to the NAM? Not sure. I know it seems lately we've been joking that when a certain storm gets into the NAM's range it will be go huge, and it never seems to anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 They don't. Those numbers all come from weather observer Frank Wachowski. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Not sure. I know it seems lately we've been joking that when a certain storm gets into the NAM's range it will be go huge, and it never seems to anymore. I know in the past, the NAM not being amped with a storm would also work as a canary in the coal mine, meaning the storm will end up not being very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I know in the past, the NAM not being amped with a storm would also work as a canary in the coal mine, meaning the storm will end up not being very impressive. That was before they fiddled with it.. Thus back in the day when that was the first to sniff out a nw trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Fcst soundings off the 0z op GFS for DPA at the time of the heavies precip. It looks like both the op and PGFS show 3-7" across the CWA. Op GFS has the slightly heavier totals SE and the PGFS has 7-8" across the northern counties away from the lake up to west of MKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What do you think... Should we meet up and find some snow machines on Craigslist? I have a fan we could use to aid in dynamic cooling... Just saying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What do you think... Should we meet up and find some snow machines on Craigslist? I have a fan we could use to aid in dynamic cooling... Just saying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Maybe they made some changes. When was the last upgrade to the NAM? Last upgrade was on 8/12/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Fcst soundings off the 0z op GFS for DPA at the time of the heavies precip. It looks like both the op and PGFS show 3-7" across the CWA. Op GFS has the slightly heavier totals SE and the PGFS has 7-8" across the northern counties away from the lake up to west of MKE 00_GFS_069_KDPA_skewt_ML.gif 00_GFS_072_KDPA_skewt_ML.gif It'll be interesting to see how much the lake plays in. I have a rooting interest in this as I will be in Lake county IN during this event. Have been looking at lake temps and they seem to be in the mid-upper 30s for the most part. Have to go to the eastern side of the lake to encounter readings above 40F. It's a marginal setup thermally but those lake temps are not really anything to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Fcst soundings off the 0z op GFS for DPA at the time of the heavies precip. It looks like both the op and PGFS show 3-7" across the CWA. Op GFS has the slightly heavier totals SE and the PGFS has 7-8" across the northern counties away from the lake up to west of MKE Thanks for the breakdown Tsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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