weatherbo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Trolling or uneducated, maybe a combo of both.Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 the ENS support kinda sealed the deal for a high impact event looking likely imo...the snow maps are the sexy goto for high end events....but to this point have not provided the centerfold pin-up material. For my prison wall....this is sexy enough for me at this point....(courtesy of TSnow on the last page) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It wasn't mentioned yet but the UKMET also would be favorable for explosive development beyond 144 per the 12z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't remember ever having a 970 mb low sitting over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Not punting. Not even 3rd down yet. But early guess is zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't remember ever having a 970 mb low sitting over my head. Good reason for that...it hasn't happened since pressure records have been kept. Lowest at FWA is around 975 mb in the 1978 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Good reason for that...it hasn't happened since pressure records have been kept. Lowest at FWA is around 975 mb in the 1978 storm. Thanks. I was trying to find the lowest pressure of that storm when it passed by FWA, but couldn't find it. I'd settle for 975. lol And, yes, I was here (20 years old at the time) for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That is one of the reasons. Or that is must produce big snows given the track and the time of the year. Plenty of time for things to change for the better, or for worse. Will be a fun weekend of watching this one Agree 100%. You have both camps...those who are going to see the most extreme solution (ie the Euro) and simply assume that it will be snow even though the verbatum shows majority rain, basically wishcasting their way to a '78 blizzard redux. Then of course you have those thinking it is just a fantasy non-event, or will indeed be rain because the cold supposedly isnt there (even though strong storms can make their own cold to an extent). There is so much agreement, Im sure SOME kind of storm will be here, and regardless of what the storm does, I am liking the timing at this juncture (again, even timing is subject to speeding up or slowing down, perhaps even a full day). Even if it is a rainstorm, chances appear high that wraparound snow and LES will be a great bet, and that would put us right smack dab on Christmas Day. We have 4 more months to get snowstorms, but only TWO days (Dec 24-25) when 90% of the public joins us in wanting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Someone should put the GFS out of its misery, what a terribly unreliable model. Rainman likes this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Keep in mind that just about every model ( and it's ensembles ) has had recent upgrades so they may not behave as one may typically expect wrt track/trends etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I just noticed that meanwhile, the Canadian says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Rainman likes this. How did I just NOW notice we had a MET in Detroit on this board!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I just noticed that meanwhile, the Canadian says the Canadian said the same thing about this weekend when all the other models were showing a storm....hmmmm. Not sure what's up with the GGEM, but if any model was going to put a sub 940 bomb over the lakes, the Canadian would usually be the first one we'd all think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 How did I just NOW notice we had a MET in Detroit on this board!? Likewise, I just noticed too I just noticed that meanwhile, the Canadian says whatstorm.gif Canadians might need lay off the sauce they fed the GGEM. In all seriousness though GGEM is terrible when it comes to troughs deepening into the central part of the US especially if they deepen down the the Gulf Coast, I would expect it to be slow to catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 As far as the snow aspect....(for the depth whores on the board).... You start playing with sub 970 bombs in your back yard in the winter time and there are a lot more fun and memorable aspects to be made other than pure snow depth. I've said it many times before, January '78 only gave CMH 6" and yet it was the most memorable storm of my life....still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 the Canadian said the same thing about this weekend when all the other models were showing a storm....hmmmm. Not sure what's up with the GGEM, but if any model was going to put a sub 940 bomb over the lakes, the Canadian would usually be the first one we'd all think of. It might be coming eventually as some of its ensembles look like the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 How did I just NOW notice we had a MET in Detroit on this board!? I'm pretty sure Rainman JUST got that tag about a day or so ago, because I didn't see it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 How did I just NOW notice we had a MET in Detroit on this board!? I've been lurking since the early days of Eastern. Signed up here a few years ago and just decided to start posting. We'll see how it goes. I'll contribute where/when I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'm pretty sure Rainman JUST got that tag about a day or so ago, because I didn't see it before. Correct, lol. If I'm gonna post, I might as well get the tag right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 As far as the snow aspect....(for the depth whores on the board).... You start playing with sub 970 bombs in your back yard in the winter time and there are a lot more fun and memorable aspects to be made other than pure snow depth. I've said it many times before, January '78 only gave CMH 6" and yet it was the most memorable storm of my life....still is. That is an interesting thought. I wasnt even born yet lol, so I cant say I experienced it. But only 8-9" fell around here with a depth of 15" on the 27th....Hell, looking at last year, everything seems to make Jan 5th look more impressive here (11" falling on already deep snowcover) than '78, and we spent the rest of '14 getting snowstorm after snowstorm and record breaking snow depth, while 1978 post blizzard was frigid and dry for the next two months. Detroit may not get the monster storms, but I cant tell you how many storms had over 9" since 1978 that dont get spoken of that much lol. Something about that storm allows it to live in lore for everyone. Last year so many older folks said "this is worse than the late 70s", which is apparently the ultimate weather compliment. I guess its one of those "you had to be there" kind of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I've been lurking since the early days of Eastern. Signed up here a few years ago and just decided to start posting. We'll see how it goes. I'll contribute where/when I can. Sounds good! Too bad you didnt post last winter, you must have been too busy shoveling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I've been lurking since the early days of Eastern. Signed up here a few years ago and just decided to start posting. We'll see how it goes. I'll contribute where/when I can. Yes please post as much as you can, it helps to have more red tag contributions around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It will likely be Sunday until we get a better grasp on who exactly will be impacted, UNLESS....... NOAA sends some flights over the Pacific to record dropsonde data. With the potential for a high impact storm during the holidays, this may be a possibility, and one that everyone on this board would be very happy with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It will likely be Sunday until we get a better grasp on who exactly will be impacted, UNLESS....... NOAA sends some flights over the Pacific to record dropsonde data. With the potential for a high impact storm during the holidays, this may be a possibility, and one that everyone on this board would be very happy with. I certainly hope that you're right. By the way, as mentioned above, it's nice to have more mets posting their professional thoughts. Post more, lurk less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It will likely be Sunday until we get a better grasp on who exactly will be impacted, UNLESS....... NOAA sends some flights over the Pacific to record dropsonde data. With the potential for a high impact storm during the holidays, this may be a possibility, and one that everyone on this board would be very happy with. Would love it....but not holding my breath...been awhile since we received thay assistance in the pac. Wish they still did that as much as they did a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The breadth of the circulation envelope/wind field with this, as progged, is staggering. A recent comparison would be Sandy after it lost tropical characteristics/moved inland but this one might even be more impressive. I'm sure the bigger storms of the past had something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The jet energy associated with this system caused some turbulence related injuries near Japan yesterday, the Euro showed 200kt jet coming off the coast of Japan yesterday around the time of the turbulence. More about the story here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/16/huge-storm-near-northern-japan-linked-to-injuries-on-american-airlines-flight-from-turbulence/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I certainly hope that you're right. By the way, as mentioned above, it's nice to have more mets posting their professional thoughts. Post more, lurk less. I love reading this forum during the winter. Summer convection there is only so much you can look at, but in the winter, there is infinite information to look at and it is great to have a wide range of people contributing to the discussion to gather as much information as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The breadth of the circulation envelope/wind field with this, as progged, is staggering. A recent comparison would be Sandy after it lost tropical characteristics/moved inland but this one might even be more impressive. I'm sure the bigger storms of the past had something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'm trying my best to contain my excitement. Deep down we all know potentially how this storm will be the birth of winter for the great lakes region. It seems to be almost the greatest script ever, Christmas eve/day time period followed by models predicting near or record lows for many of us. I too love the input of all the members. Having more Red tagged ones only adds value to this community and increases the depth of the discussion. I must admit this season I have really learned a lot from the pros on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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