Rainman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I wouldn't say there is a consensus among the entire suite of models There is not a consensus regarding the specific outcome. However, there is consensus on a less phased solution. If you wouldn't say that, you are wrong. There will not be a sub 960. There will not be a sub 970 low. Possibly not even a sub 990 judging from some solutions. Santabomb is dead. The real outcome will be much less phased, and that is being modeled now and has been for 24 hours. The factoid about some ensemble members hanging on is moot anyway since the AFD was about how the models changed, not how some perturbations stayed the same. My comments were in response to reading the AFD only. Anyway, let's hope this less phased solution will give someone a decent stripe of snow. Hopefully that someone will be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm ok with that. As awful as the NAM is, it's enough assurance that hope is still not 100% lost as far as snowstorm potential in our areas. 21z SREFS also have come in line with the NAM, to a much greater degree than the 15z suite. Would probably still toss at this point unless some other piece of guidance this evening jumps aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah, I'd guess slightly weaker/east. As hard as that is to believe. Surface low looks it's going to make a run at Washington DC... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The problem is if it trends south and east, the deformation band is likely to be weaker, so it's not like the 'snowstorm' potential is that great anyway, would be enough for a White Christmas though if it trends to pass through Ohio. Best case scenario would be what the 18z NAM showed, which had a decent cold sector deformation band. But even though the probability of that solution is above 0%, I would bet on a GFS-type solution happening first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 One of the things I've pretty much overlooked until tonight is how much more significant the northern stream low is tomorrow/tomorrow night. Models have been slowly but surely adding more and more precip for the past several days with this first system. Now looking like some decent snows could occur up in parts of northern IA/MN/WI with the northern stream system. Some respectable rains of over a half inch are possible as well over eastern IA/northern IL. The stronger northern stream seems to tilt the trough a little more positive, and the result is a less phased, or delayed phased southern stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's the NAM beyond 24 hours. Toss that model to the curb, it's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 One of the things I've pretty much overlooked until tonight is how much more significant the northern stream low is tomorrow/tomorrow night. Models have been slowly but surely adding more and more precip for the past several days with this first system. Now looking like some decent snows could occur up in parts of northern IA/MN/WI with the northern stream system. Some respectable rains of over a half inch are possible as well over eastern IA/northern IL. The stronger northern stream seems to tilt the trough a little more positive, and the result is a less phased, or delayed phased southern stream system. Also looks like the NAM is somewhat quicker with the kicker s/w over the intermountain west. Forces everything downstream to stay more progressive/less phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Also looks like the NAM is somewhat quicker with the kicker s/w over the intermountain west. Forces everything downstream to stay more progressive/less phased. I thought that upstream wave looked about the same or a bit slower than the 18z run. Edit: or do you mean quicker than other models have been showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I thought that upstream wave looked about the same or a bit slower than the 18z run. You're right. I was comparing it the 0z NAM at 84 to the 18z GFS at 90. Since the GFS is more wound-up with the main storm, and its depiction of the kicker is slower, I thought that the NAM's more progressive handling of it may be a causal factor in its weaker downstream solution. But maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The northern piece is dropping further south and is pulling colder air along with it. Has caught the attention of forecasters up this way. What was once a forecast of rain to snow with maybe 1" on the backside has turned into snow accums of 2-5" thru Tues night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You're right. I was comparing it the 0z NAM at 84 to the 18z GFS at 90. Since the GFS is more wound-up with the main storm, and its depiction of the kicker is slower, I thought that the NAM's more progressive handling of it may be a causal factor in its weaker downstream solution. But maybe not. Yeah I edited my original post as I realized that's what you may have meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm figuring on a nice cyclone over DTX Christmas morning. And the step down to real winter will commence. Just a gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 RGEM at 48 hours fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 RGEM at 48 hours fwiw GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif It looks like it may have taken a step towards the NAM. We won't know for sure until the GGEM comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It looks like it may have taken a step towards the NAM. We won't know for sure until the GGEM comes out. I was actually going to say that I think it would've led to a solution quite different than the NAM had it gone out farther. The southern wave looks more robust and to me it looks to be on the verge of developing a nice surface low that would track west of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 RGEM at 48 hours fwiw GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Huge shield of precip associated with the northern low. I remember a few days ago when many of the models were very modest with precip with that. Almost looks like it's the main storm now, with whatever follows as less of a main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I was actually going to say that I think it would've led to a solution quite different than the NAM had it gone out farther. The southern wave looks more robust and to me it looks to be on the verge of developing a nice surface low that would track west of the NAM. It probably would still have a stronger/NW surface low, but the features appear to have set up further SE with the more dominant northern stream shortwave compared to the 12z run. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I was actually going to say that I think it would've led to a solution quite different than the NAM had it gone out farther. The southern wave looks more robust and to me it looks to be on the verge of developing a nice surface low that would track west of the NAM. RGEM looks amped and ready to go from what I have seen. Looks similar to 12Z GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Environment Canada just pulled the trigger on a special weather statement for all of Southern Ontario for little to no snow accumulation on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The NAM and GFS are just a tad different on the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well pretty obvious what model Skilling is leaning towards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Can already tell the GFS won't be NAM like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Can already tell the GFS won't be NAM like. I would have been comfortable making the same assumption even before the GFS started coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS says Chicago is gonna have a very white Christmas lol. Amped up pretty nicely after 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 995 surface low over Cincinnati at 18Z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well pretty obvious what model Skilling is leaning towards! Chicago still keeps % of possible sunshine records? I didnt think any place did anymore. And its a shame because I thought that was a pretty cool stat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS tracks it directly over my head, it does look a hair east from 18z run. Edit: a smidge slower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS at 72 Dynamic cooling weenie blob over Harry's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.