Rainman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 If there's 2 things the models struggle with, it's fast flow and highly amplified patterns.If there's 3 things...wave phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z parallel GFS came east but still a decent strip of snow on the back side. Nice 1-10" spread from Gary to to Rockford area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I expected more snowfall maps considering Brant Miller was busting out a 13" snowfall map on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 It would be nice if the NAM could pull a coup for this one. Would be a nice Christmas present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev141 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 This is wrong. The universal loss of the storm by all members of the 00z suite is not a measure of high chaos inherent in the system. He's thinking of model SPREAD, which there is relatively little of at this point. This forecaster is probably just trying to hang on for another model run or two and hope he doesn't have to back off the forecast. Yes, the storm could reappear in all the models, but don't hold your breath. Model consensus with decreasing lead time and improving sampling is reason for increased certainty, not decreased. Sampling was not great last night, but like I said, the Seattle raob nabbed the lead edge of the PV anomaly. That may have been enough. Actually this forecaster is not wrong. While all the deterministic models flip flopped yesterday evening, many ensemble members did not. The fact that todays models are coming back with more of storm proves this. Rapid pattern shifts such as this are so difficult for the models due to an even higher sensitivity to the initial conditions of the dynamical system (hence a lot of chaos in the system). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Actually this forecaster is not wrong. While all the deterministic models flip flopped yesterday evening, many ensemble members did not. The fact that todays models are coming back with more of storm proves this. Rapid pattern shifts such as this are so difficult for the models due to an even higher sensitivity to the initial conditions of the dynamical system (hence a lot of chaos in the system). Are you a meteorologist as well by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 LOL, 18z NAM looks like it'd be mby's Christmas miracle. It did score the coup during the last storm, so you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I expected more snowfall maps considering Brant Miller was busting out a 13" snowfall map on Friday lol I don't think there are even any snow maps to post from the 12z and 18z models, most of them just show a 2-5" band of snow anywhere from green bay to st louis to cleveland (lol on the spread). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev141 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Are you a meteorologist as well by chance? I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 KBUF says this will be a high wind event for our area for this storm. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREATLAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH VERYMILD TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE STRONG WINDSBEHIND A COLD FRONT ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST TO 60MPH OVERNIGHT WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH POSSIBLY NEEDED IN LATERFORECAST UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I am. Nice! Welcome! Perhaps Hoosier can help you get a red tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I am. Awesome! Welcome, always nice to have another Met here. Prepare for a lot of these , these , and hopefully a lot of these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 After shedding a few mets awhile ago (OceanSt, Hoosier4caster, and a couple others) we seem to have recovered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Definitely will be a "thread the needle" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 18z GFS ensemble members still all over the map, possible low track anywhere from st louis to chicago to indianapolis to nashville to detroit at 72hrs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yep not only track but timing still looks pretty wide open too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I certainly hope this isn't a pattern for the year when it comes to systems. A whole winter of this will make us basket cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looking a little closer, the PV anomaly which will actually carve out the base of this trough will only be partially sampled here at 00Z. The majority of it will still be off shore. This partial sampling should help somewhat with the evening runs, but I bet the model spread will still be quite significant. By tomorrow morning I would expect pretty good model agreement as we fully sample the entire PV anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looking a little closer, the PV anomaly which will actually carve out the base of this trough will only be partially sampled here at 00Z. The majority of it will still be off shore. This partial sampling should help somewhat with the evening runs, but I bet the model spread will still be quite significant. By tomorrow morning I would expect pretty good model agreement as we fully sample the entire PV anomaly. Yeah, hard to believe most of the spread could be resolved in the course of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Actually this forecaster is not wrong. While all the deterministic models flip flopped yesterday evening, many ensemble members did not. The fact that todays models are coming back with more of storm proves this. Rapid pattern shifts such as this are so difficult for the models due to an even higher sensitivity to the initial conditions of the dynamical system (hence a lot of chaos in the system). Welcome to the board. You should get tagged. When consensus among the entire suite of operational models exists, it's a strong bet that lagging ensemble members will simply be playing catch up. The less phased solution is the one that is going to happen, and this became clear at 00z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev141 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Welcome to the board. You should get tagged. When consensus among the entire suite of operational models exists, it's a strong bet that lagging ensemble members will simply be playing catch up. The less phased solution is the one that is going to happen, and this became clear at 00z yesterday. Thanks, I have to disagree that the models come into consensus yesterday. The model runs yesterday did not come to a consensus whatsoever, in fact they all diverged from what they had been showing, then the runs today diverged from those yesterday. Model ensembles continue to be all over the place with the surface system. See the posts above. While the possibility of null event is certainly there, I personally do not know what if any current solution will verify. Good luck with your forecast, you have much more confidence than do I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Thanks, I have to disagree that the models come into consensus yesterday. The model runs yesterday did not come to a consensus whatsoever, in fact they all diverged from what they had been showing, then the runs today diverged from those yesterday. Model ensembles continue to be all over the place with the surface system. See the posts above. While the possibility of null event is certainly there, I personally do not know what if any current solution will verify. Good luck with your forecast, you have much more confidence than do I. I concur with your thoughts that this is far from resolved. The GFS Ensembles are a fair bit north and west of the 12z Euro Ensembles, and though I would give the edge to the less developed EC Ensembles, it is not a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks like the 00z NAM is at the very least going to hold serve with its solution, and may even trend further east/less phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Welcome to the board. You should get tagged. When consensus among the entire suite of operational models exists, it's a strong bet that lagging ensemble members will simply be playing catch up. The less phased solution is the one that is going to happen, and this became clear at 00z yesterday. I wouldn't say there is a consensus among the entire suite of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks like the 00z NAM is at the very least going to hold serve with its solution, and may even trend further east/less phased. Yeah, I'd guess slightly weaker/east. As hard as that is to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah, I'd guess slightly weaker/east. As hard as that is to believe. I'm ok with that. As awful as the NAM is, it's enough assurance that hope is still not 100% lost as far as snowstorm potential in our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Base of the trough is going to have to start going neg. tilt pretty quickly on the NAM for there to be more than an open wave moving off the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The wave on the NAM is really weak! Now appearing as an area of light rain moving through the TN Valley at 66 hours. Some snow for OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This NAM run will give SnowLover some hope for a swath of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm ok with that. As awful as the NAM is, it's enough assurance that hope is still not 100% lost as far as snowstorm potential in our areas. The problem is if it trends south and east, the deformation band is likely to be weaker, so it's not like the 'snowstorm' potential is that great anyway, would be enough for a White Christmas though if it trends to pass through Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.