Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 One of the changes we've seen in the past couple days is the trend toward delaying the trough becoming negatively tilted. Take the ECMWF prog from 19/12z and compare it to today's 12z GFS, both valid at 12z Dec 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 NAM was the first model to suggest a northwest track. I clearly remember a GFS run about 60-72 hours out that didn't have much of anything. Other than that, it's kinda tough to remember what each model did. I actually read through most of that old 12/1/06 thread from Eastern a few weeks back. Interesting read. I'm guessing the Euro will be more amped than the last few runs, with something closer to the GEM/GFS, but not as amped at PGFS. We'll find out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 12z Euro has a 998 low in central TN at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Seems like the Euro is a step in the right direction from 00z. That's not saying much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks like the GGEM - with the deformation band through MI. Marginal surface temps again. 982mb just southeast of Toledo at 84 hour. Through 12z 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks like the GGEM - with the deformation band through MI. Marginal surface temps again. 982mb just southeast of Toledo at 84 hour. Slower than the GGEM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Tossing the PGFS is prob the smart thing to do. Euro, GFS, GEM, and UK are in general agreement that eastern IL, much of IN and up into MI are most likely to see some accumulation based on 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro is much quicker to deepen the surface low than the other 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks like the GGEM - with the deformation band through MI. Marginal surface temps again. 982mb just southeast of Toledo at 84 hour. Through 12z 25th. ecmwf_tsnow_ne_17.png I'd be fine with that. Home base gets 2-3in of snow and a white Christmas. It really has been quite comical watching the solutions go back and forth over the last few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 We get 47 here Tuesday, and temps then falling on Wednesday, with possible snow., and then remain above freezing through Friday, with a chance of snow again, and then temps falling through the weekend, going in to next week in the mid 20's. As far as this system goes, If we get snow, it will most likely be a sloppy inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Still unusually low scores on the CIPS analogs valid 12z Dec 24, though it's gotten a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Northern stream piece of energy on the new NAM cuts the low nearly to KS City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Northern stream piece of energy on the new NAM cuts the low nearly to KS City. 12z model diagnostic discussion mentioned that the NAM and GFS had issues with that at initialization THE NAM AND GFS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER-LEVELSHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY RELATIVE TOTHE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE. THE PARALLEL GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THEOPERATIONAL VERSION AT THIS TIME...LENDING SOME CREDENCE TO THENON-NCEP CAMP OF SOLUTIONS. THE DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO STEM FROMTHE FAST-MOVING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE IN THENORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE NAM (AND THE GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT)INITIALIZED 500 HPA HEIGHTS A LITTLE TOO LOW IN THE VICINITY OFTHE FEATURES THIS MORNING. THIS COULD IMPACT ITS RESULTANTSOLUTION WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH BY THE TIME THE SHORTWAVEREACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 LOL, 18z NAM looks like it'd be mby's Christmas miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 There was a slight move toward hanging back less energy in the base of the trough on the 18z NAM. That will be something to keep an eye on as far as the other models as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 There was a slight move toward hanging back less energy in the base of the trough on the 18z NAM. That will be something to keep an eye on as far as the other models as well. Yeah noticed that too. A slight improvement but still eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Taking the 18z NAM and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Taking the 18z NAM and running. I give it 24 hours before it tracks this thing over MKE. 15z SREF mean well west of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 And let the 18z run of the GFS begin. Should be entertaining, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yeah noticed that too. A slight improvement but still eh Well, gotta start somewhere. It would be a way to nudge this toward a more impressive outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 12z ECMWF ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Here comes the GFS with a surface low heading toward LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF are approximately 12mb different for the low over Toledo in 84 hours (78 hours for the GFS). I am comparing slightly different time frames. And it's still just rain for NW Ohio! What is wrong with the models these days? This thread is about 4 days long (or possibly more) and I still don't know what will happen in northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Here comes the GFS with a surface low heading toward LAF. Can tell early on the srn wave looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 As others have mentioned, the GFS is exciting again lol. It will feel like we've been tracking this storm for two or three weeks on end by the time we get to Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF are approximately 12mb different for the low over Toledo in 84 hours (78 hours for the GFS). I am comparing slightly different time frames. And it's still just rain for NW Ohio! What is wrong with the models these days? This thread is about 4 days long (or possibly more) and I still don't know what will happen in northern Indiana. If there's 2 things the models struggle with, it's fast flow and highly amplified patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z parallel GFS came east but still a decent strip of snow on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 If there's 2 things the models struggle with, it's fast flow and highly amplified patterns. The times when model performance is most important unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 This is definitely going to be a nowcast kind of storm, the differences on the individual gfs ensemble members at 72hrs is just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Anyone see what the RGEM does with the northern piece? http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNM&hh2=054&fixhh=1&hh=000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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