Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY DOWNSTREAM SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/UKMET CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE CONNECTION TO WHAT HAPPENS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A CLOSED LOW REFERENCED IN THE ABOVE SECTION...IT APPEARS THIS NEXT WAVE FOLLOWS SUIT...WITH THE 00Z GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SWD TOWARD TEXAS...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND THE 12Z CMC IS MORE FRAGMENTED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING EAST OF A LARGE E-PAC RIDGE. IT APPEARS THE 00Z GFSP IS A PREFERRED BLEND BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF / 00Z GFS. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF/UKMET HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS PREFERENCE...WITH MORE AMPLIFICATION AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND HAS SIMILARITIES TO THE GFSP. ALTHOUGH NO SINGLE MODEL SHOWS A PREFERRED EVOLUTION AT THIS TIME...THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/GFSP FORM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 All I can say is that this storm has me shaking my head for a multitude of reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Board is comical at times. Thank Goodness there is always a pragmatic version to assess the situation: HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 3.5 TO 4 DAYS AWAY...I AM HESITANT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...AS IT APPEARS THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE REALLY JUST SHOWING US THE INHERENT HIGH AMOUNT OF CHAOS IN THE SYSTEM WITH SUCH A RAPIDLY CHANGING PATTERN. AS SUCH...I REALLY HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE LATEST 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND WOULD PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONAL RUNS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS BEFORE BEGINNING TO MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES. -LOT AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 NWS APX (Gaylord) put out an excellent AFD this morning .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014PART 2 OF OUR STORM: WILL SANTA DELIVER FOR THE SNOW LOVERS NEARCHRISTMAS...OR WILL THE GRINCH WIN OUT THIS YEAR? THAT IS THEMILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK...WITH 00Z GUIDANCESUITE CONTINUING TO OFFER AN EVEN LARGER PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS AS TOJUST HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD. THE KEY TO THIS PERIOD REMAINS THETRUE STRONG JET CORE AND EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADYWELL EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ENERGY WILL PLOWASHORE IN THE STRONG PACIFIC "FIRE HOSE" PATTERN...DIVING THROUGHTHE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPERPATTERN ON THE HEELS OF 150+ KNOTS OF UPPER JET HELP DIVING TOWARDNORTHERN MEXICO. HATE TO TRY TO ESTABLISH ANY TRENDS EVEN AT THISJUNCTURE...BUT MY GUT FEELING BASED ON HISTORY AND GUIDANCE TRENDSIS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONGLY DIGGING SYSTEM...SUFFICIENT TOSLOW THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WE PUSH TOWARD CHRISTMAS.THE SHEER AMOUNT OF JET ENERGY STRONGLY ARGUES IN THAT DIRECTION ASDOES HISTORY OF SUCH SETUPS... WITH MANY ANALOGS (THOUGH STILL NOBIG MATCHES) SUGGESTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING AS FAR SOUTH ASTHE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WRAPPING INTO THE EXISTING MID-CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THAT SETUP ALONE HAS TO GIVE ONE PAUSE AS IT ATLEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERENEAR THE GULF...LIFTING NORTH AND EITHER WRAPPING BACK BENEATH THEPRIMARY MID LEVEL CYCLONE...OR BEING SLING-SHOTTED NORTHWARD QUICKLYINTO CANADA. AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TIMING!!SHOULD THE UPPER WAVE (YET TO BE WELL MODELED ON THE UPPER AIRNETWORK I MIGHT ADD) SLOW DOWN AND DIG BY JUST 6-12 MORE HOURS...THIS WHOLE BOMBOGENESIS THING MAY BE AWASH...AS HAS BEEN HINTED ATBY A NUMBER OF GEFS/EPS/NAEFS MEMBERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH OF COURSE MANY OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL SHOW QUITE THE SLEW OFDIFFERING OPINIONS...INCLUDING THE EURO CAVING WITH ITS CONTINUITYRECENTLY. IN ALL HONESTY...THIS REMAINS A VERY FLUID SITUATION...WITH CHANGES STILL TO BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNINGTO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BITOF A DUD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...REALLY NOT SURE HOW TO PLAY THE TUESDAYNIGHT/WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...OR EVEN INTO CHRISTMAS DAYFOR THAT MATTER...WITH A WHOLE SMORGASBORD OF POSSIBILITIES.AGAIN...GUT FEELING HAS TO KICK IN SOMEWHERE...AND SUSPECT THAT THENORTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE STRONGER CAMP OFPOSSIBILITIES...OPENING THE DOOR THAT OUR SECONDARY WAVE MAY WELLEND UP FARTHER EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FORTHOSE PERIODS...AND EVEN IF WE SEE AN EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY...HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN ROTATING BACK INTO THEAREA BENEATH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS TOWARD THEGREAT LAKES. SHOULD ENOUGH COLD AIR BLEED INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEMOFF TO OUR WEST...CAN SEE A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST TO SOMESNOW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LIMITED WRAPAROUND PRECIP FORCHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF OUR SYSTEM THINSMOISTURE QUICKLY. STILL WORTH AT LEAST A CHANCE MENTION...BUT WINDSMAY NOT TURN OUT ALL THAT BAD WITH AN EASTWARD TREND EITHER...AS THETIGHTER GRADIENT ENDS UP IN ONTARIO OR QUEBEC. THIS WHOLE FORECASTIS REALLY JUST A MESS...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT48 HOURS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BEYANKED ALTOGETHER INTO MIDWEEK IF MORE EASTERLY SOLUTIONS COME TOFRUITION.REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS WHOLE CHRISTMAS STORM THING SHAKES OUT...ONETHING LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. ANY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL BELIMITED AS THE REALLY COLD AIR BUILDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA ANDOUR FLOW STAYS PROGRESS. THAT MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER SYSTEMEMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITHANOTHER HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS MODELED AT THIS POINT...ALL THE WAYFROM ANOTHER RAIN MAKER HERE TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM. DON`T WANTTO EVEN HAZARD A TRUE GUESS JUST YET ABOUT THAT ONE...BUT AMBECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT A MORE DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGEWILL TAKE SHAPE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...SNOWLOVERS - DON`T LOSE HOPE JUST YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Board is comical at times. Thank Goodness there is always a pragmatic version to assess the situation: HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 3.5 TO 4 DAYS AWAY...I AM HESITANT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...AS IT APPEARS THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE REALLY JUST SHOWING US THE INHERENT HIGH AMOUNT OF CHAOS IN THE SYSTEM WITH SUCH A RAPIDLY CHANGING PATTERN. AS SUCH...I REALLY HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE LATEST 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND WOULD PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONAL RUNS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS BEFORE BEGINNING TO MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES. -LOT AFD This is wrong. The universal loss of the storm by all members of the 00z suite is not a measure of high chaos inherent in the system. He's thinking of model SPREAD, which there is relatively little of at this point. This forecaster is probably just trying to hang on for another model run or two and hope he doesn't have to back off the forecast. Yes, the storm could reappear in all the models, but don't hold your breath. Model consensus with decreasing lead time and improving sampling is reason for increased certainty, not decreased. Sampling was not great last night, but like I said, the Seattle raob nabbed the lead edge of the PV anomaly. That may have been enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 This is wrong. The universal loss of the storm by all members of the 00z suite is not a measure of high chaos inherent in the system. He's thinking of model SPREAD, which there is relatively little of at this point. This forecaster is probably just trying to hang on for another model run or two and hope he doesn't have to back off the forecast. Yes, the storm could reappear in all the models, but don't hold your breath. Model consensus with decreasing lead time and improving sampling is reason for increased certainty, not decreased. Sampling was not great last night, but like I said, the Seattle raob nabbed the lead edge of the PV anomaly. That may have been enough. Perhaps. My point really wasn't about the meteorology rather the constant model worship that causes SOME to live and die with each run. Is it fair to say when a significantl pattern change is taking place model variability is enhanced? For that matter I've seen instances where it is the second wave in the train that ultimately is the big kahuna versus the initial one the models latched on to. Either way, continues to be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Perhaps. My point really wasn't about the meteorology rather the constant model worship that causes SOME to live and die with each run. Is it fair to say when a significantl pattern change is taking place model variability is enhanced? For that matter I've seen instances where it is the second wave in the train that ultimately is the big kahuna versus the initial one the models latched on to. Either way, continues to be fun to track. Unfortunately, this wont be changing anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 And the 12z GFS has gone back to the NW/stronger solution. Nice snowstorm for Aleking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Hahaha! Wait till you guys see the PGFS. 988mb near LaSalle IL at 72, with snow ripping in central IA. There were a few GEFS and EPS that showed that yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Low passes over Rockford and Milwaukee, with Hawkeye getting hammered on the PGFS. It'll be interesting to see if the other models pick up on a stronger/more northwest solution now that the sampling is becoming more complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 And the 12z GFS has gone back to the NW/stronger solution. Nice snowstorm for Aleking. Looks more fast than anything, with minimal precip on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 So the NAM has a L in eastern Ohio while the PGFS in western Illinois. Nice to see a consensus forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Just wanted to say its been interesting listening to y'all share your thoughts as this develops, so thanks to everyone taking the time to post up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 What a disaster with the models. Comical, frustrating, and entertaining all at the same time. The models even messed up today's precip here on last nights run. They showed about 0.25" of rain with a brief changeover to snow on the backside tomorrow. Now this morning the forecast has changed to 2-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yeah, we still have as many questions as we did three days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 the PGFS pretty much nails N WI and west UP through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Damnit.... 12Z GFS screws northern lower. Moves the freezing line west 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Basically everyone's still in the game with this one. Last night's Euro looked like it was close to laying down a nice swath of snow from Ohio up towards Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Since none of us knows the true outcome of this event, until more comes in line with one of the GFS models, not sure if we can put too much stock in either yet, even if the PGFS has the potential to be a better model with its higher resolution. We were speculating about a farther west track yesterday but given lack of run to run continuity, could just be noise still. Also that's quite the hard left track portrayed. Negative tilt to the trough makes it more reasonable but would like to see more support for a due north track on the rest of the 12z suite. The position of the sfc low at hr 60 and 66 typically portends a good track for snow in Chicago and points west. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Uncle Ukie with a weaker SLP heading up through northern indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Feels more like we're 180 hours out instead of sub-100hrs, from the looks of model guidance. At this point, I'm just content to not see rain on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'm thinking even with the perfect track, 2" is about the best most of us could expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Hawk to DLL would get buried pretty nicely with this scenario, verbatim. PGFS also has a nice 55-60kt CCB at 850 over the heavy snow. Would likely be close to blizzard conditions in that zone. Fun to look at anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Low passes over Rockford and Milwaukee, with Hawkeye getting hammered on the PGFS. It'll be interesting to see if the other models pick up on a stronger/more northwest solution now that the sampling is becoming more complete. 12/1/2006 was one of the CIPS analogs as of yesterday. I cringed when I saw it but I'm sure you'd be fine with an outcome like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Unreal how different the PGFS 06z run compares to the 12z frame Cyclone posted. Not even close. Only a few more hours until we hopefully get some consistency from sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 12/1/2006 was one of the CIPS analogs as of yesterday. I cringed when I saw it but I'm sure you'd be fine with an outcome like that. Ha, yeah that'd be okay with me. Even back in '06 I don't think we had this much model disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 With the GEM similar to the legacy GFS and UK, the PGFS is on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 12z GEM came in a little stronger 999mb near Louisville and 994mb SW of Toledo before going sub 990mb in MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Ha, yeah that'd be okay with me. Even back in '06 I don't think we had this much model disagreement. NAM was the first model to suggest a northwest track. I clearly remember a GFS run about 60-72 hours out that didn't have much of anything. Other than that, it's kinda tough to remember what each model did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GGEM showed this. Some snow south of Lake MI and western MI, but the temperatures aren't the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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