TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I think this storm wins the most wide variety of possible solutions ... glad my only expectation for this system has been strong winds as I don't really care if that doesn't really happen! lol...on this run, there is barely any snow in Michigan up through the Christmas period. The run to run changes on the GFS are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I think this storm wins the most wide variety of possible solutions ... glad my only expectation for this system has been strong winds as I don't really care if that doesn't really happen!add the 00z PGFS to the list of different solutions what a mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 after looking at the gfs it reminds me of that fantasy OV/lower lakes bomb a few years ago that all the models jumped on and mets began to blog about. By the time verification time came, it had morphed into a weak wave that shunted off the Carolina coast. crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Of course, it would be this December that a sub-1000mb low with a normally perfect heavy snow track for Detroit produces the bullcrap the 00z GFS shows verbatim... That's exactly how I felt after the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Meanwhile, the 00z pGFS remains an northern stream dominant open wave and doesn't bomb out until getting into Canada. And then another kick in the nuts with a nice MSP special for the 26th-27th wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 after looking at the gfs it reminds me of that fantasy OV/lower lakes bomb a few years ago that all the models jumped on and mets began to blog about. By the time verification time came, it had morphed into a weak wave that shunted off the Carolina coast. crazy February 2009 It'll be hard to replicate that level of fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 what is this i don't even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 after looking at the gfs it reminds me of that fantasy OV/lower lakes bomb a few years ago that all the models jumped on and mets began to blog about. By the time verification time came, it had morphed into a weak wave that shunted off the Carolina coast. crazy Maybe we should start interpreting the GFS as if you ever get painted by the GFS, then you have been eliminated from the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 February 2009 It'll be hard to replicate that level of fail. you gotta admit, this current situation is making a hell of try at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Alek must be sweating his wagons west call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Alek must be sweating his wagons west call yea, the one thing that wasn't making sense was the models continued to weaken the system and yet kept moving it west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 ....I really didn't want to stay up for the euro....I have no dog in the fight, and yet I'm so damn curious what the hell it's going to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 ....I really didn't want to stay up for the euro....I have no dog in the fight, and yet I'm so damn curious what the hell it's going to show. It has been MUCH more consistent than the ridiculous GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I can't tell what happens in between hours but the 00z UKMET doesn't look good. Overall it seems we've seen a trend toward a slower/more positively tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I can't tell what happens in between hours but the 00z UKMET doesn't look good. Overall it seems we've seen a trend toward a slower/more positively tilted trough. Believe it or not, even that solution can still work out, as far as snow potential, if we can get the northern stream wave to push the initial cold front a little further SE... But yeah, just straw grasping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 What no updates on the Chinese model ??? I think we should all sit back until this thing gets sampled, there has always been a reason . Till then this is just a gong show and best kept as model entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 What no updates on the Chinese model ??? I think we should all sit back until this thing gets sampled, there has always been a reason . Till then this is just a gong show and best kept as model entertainment. Good point. Good for lowering the blood pressure too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I was a bit surprised with the wagons east on the GFS too. Probably best to not to get attached to any solution at this point, since we're still at the 4 day mark. With this boring pattern we've been in for the last three weeks, it is hard not to look for some model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 OPC shows that we could have decent partial sampling on the 00z runs. sampling seems to rain on every parade this season... maybe full sampling will offer another solution tomorrow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 "Rapid intensifying storms over extratropical waters are relatively easy to forecast 5-days out. Apparently land-based bombs are not for GFS". Ryan Maue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The lead edge of the PV anomaly was sampled by Seattle's raob. It's not exactly adequate sampling, but it may have been just enough to allow the 00z suite to recalibrate the depth and strength of the wave. The difference between the GFS and PGFS is comical. Either one of them doesn't have a clue or the solution space for this storm is still ridiculously wide open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Meanwhile, the 00z pGFS remains an northern stream dominant open wave and doesn't bomb out until getting into Canada. And then another kick in the nuts with a nice MSP special for the 26th-27th wave. looks more like MSN special with the second system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro looks like hot garbage through 84. Weak 1001 low stretched out from OH to TN. Only cold sector precip is some snow shower activity in IA/MN. Trends with the system today are definitely on the decline. Maybe tomorrow things will turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Around 992mb low near Pitt at hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Things could change but it looks like the Euro won this model battle by default (it was the only model that was consistently on the eastern side of the envelope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I just laughed out loud at the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Things could change but it looks like the Euro won this model battle by default (it was the only model that was consistently on the eastern side of the envelope). Getting the location close doesn't help much if it's off by 30mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Things could change but it looks like the Euro won this model battle by default (it was the only model that was consistently on the eastern side of the envelope). That's true about it being on the eastern side with the track but it's had its fair share of run to run changes. The handling of the trough is way different than previous runs (as is the case with other models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Nasty (though, one can argue, not unexpected) change of events with this 0z suite. Maybe January will be a little more kind to us than December has been/will continue to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 So much rubbish. I can't even right now. Nowcast ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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