A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 RFD to Moneybags everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Thanks for the responses guys. Appreciate the info. OPC shows that we could have decent partial sampling on the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 What? DPA switches to snow a lot sooner than 3z. Look at some soundings.He clearly said based on COBB data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Glancing over 18z GFS COBB data: KDPA: RASN starting on 12/24 at 15z, snow begins at 12/25 3z. Accumulation of 7.3". KORD: RASN throughout nearly the entire event, only ending as snow. Accumulation of 1.6". For perspective, that's a 5.7" gradient between 18.3 miles. The gradient wouldn't be that extreme. Models usually miss the dynamic cooling aspect of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Exit region of the jet streak looks to arrive at sounding site UIL in Washington between 6-7Z tonight based on satellite derived winds. 12Z sounding should be sampling this jet core pretty well, although we likely won't get full sampling of the entire jet streak until 00Z tomorrow. Taking a look at the 00Z UIL sounding, 300mb winds are already up to 120 knots. 300mb satellite derived winds in this same area is 110 knots, so slightly underdone. In addition, the max satellite derived winds out over the pacific in the core of the jet streak are now around 183 knots. Using interpolation, if this area is also slightly underestimated, one can assume that this jet streak core has winds near 200 knots! Now that is some energy right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 RFD to Moneybags everyone else Bank clock 38 and driving rain. Windswept snowshowers as Santa stumbles out of wrigleyville bars. Hope is this storm is a game changer going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 He clearly said based on COBB data. What's the point of looking at COBB data when it's not even close to the actual fcst soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 0z NAM says Wagons East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 0z NAM says Wagons East.More like wagons nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 More like wagons nowhere Looks like there would be a thin band of snow. Really, though, who cares about the NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks like there would be a thin band of snow. Really, though, who cares about the NAM at this point. Dayton, Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Nam definitely taking a weaker/further east approach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Dayton, Ohio.Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Dayton, Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Eh couldn't resist. At this point were all beggars. Let's just hope we get a bomb which gets this pattern change humming for the entire forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 What? DPA switches to snow a lot sooner than 3z. Look at some soundings.I'm sure soundings give a better picture; post was more to discuss the gradient.Here's the COBB link, for those interested: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kdpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Almost wish the NAM would only be run for 24 hours and put the extra/saved computing power to better use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Almost wish the NAM would only be run for 24 hours and put the extra/saved computing power to better use. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 This is a non-trivial difference in the NAM/RGEM 500 mb depictions at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I want snow like the next guy, but Dec. has been so quiet that any storm would be better than the weather pattern we've been in. At least the signs of being more active pattern after Christmas is encouraging. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Well, I believe Indpls. has had 2.7" of snow so far this season, more than folks up north of here. Planning to drive from Indpls area up I-65 to the Calumet region Christmas Day so I plan to watch all the model shifts with this system very closely. At the very least will have to hang tight to the steering wheel if wind projections are anywhere near accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GFS really digging for oil with the southern stream wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 PRetty significant change on the 00z GFS. 995mb low over Dayton at 96hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 00z GFS in baseball terms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 PRetty significant change on the 00z GFS. 995mb low over Dayton at 96hr. Yep Low party at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 PRetty significant change on the 00z GFS. 995mb low over Dayton at 96hr. It then deepens to 992mb and tracks to the Toronto area at 102hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 PRetty significant change on the 00z GFS. 995mb low over Dayton at 96hr. Actually more like CMH. Definitely a significant change. Continues the slowing trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Of course, it would be this December that a sub-1000mb low with a normally perfect heavy snow track for Detroit produces the bullcrap the 00z GFS shows verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Honestly this system has been a comedy of errors when it comes to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I think this storm wins the most wide variety of possible solutions ... glad my only expectation for this system has been strong winds as I don't really care if that doesn't really happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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