Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Chicago gets drilled on this run after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 ORD getting dumped on by the looks of it..... Thundersnow would have fun doing the reports at ORD per the 18Z GFS.... You still scheduled to work on Christmas Eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 18Z GFS dumping snow in W Central Illinois at 96 hr. Gonna be a close run for Chicago folks.Great run for E MO and IL widespread 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Chicago gets drilled on this run after the changeover. Actually it's closer than I thought as there's a bit of warm tongue above 850 mb that tries to hang on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Yesterday the GFS made it look like folks in Michigan were in a good spot now today it looks like Illinois, and I'm not sure when we'll be able to turn the left blinker off. I wonder if cyclone will finally cash in on a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 18Z GFS snow map fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 ORD getting dumped on by the looks of it..... Thundersnow would have fun doing the reports at ORD per the 18Z GFS.... You still scheduled to work on Christmas Eve? Yes sir. 6am to 2pm. 850's cool pretty nicely even lakeside and with 925mb temps below freezing, I guess the sfc temps closer to the lake are just a tad too warm as well as the warm layer around 750mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Actually it's closer than I thought as there's a bit of warm tongue above 850 mb that tries to hang on. Here is ORD at 18z Warm layer around 750mb but geesh it could go either way, then that layer cools and it changes over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 18Z GFS snow map fwiw. I'd take it... Give me some fun in Northern Michigan, plus Chicago & St Louis get a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I'd take it... Give me some fun in Northern Michigan, plus Chicago & St Louis get a white Christmas. St. Louis would have several inches of snow on the ground and a white Christmas, while northern Maine has heavy rain and mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Yes sir. 6am to 2pm. 850's cool pretty nicely even lakeside and with 925mb temps below freezing, I guess the sfc temps closer to the lake are just a tad too warm. There'd be a period where it would get pretty intense downtown after the changeover if the 18z GFS is right. Model is indicating 925 mb winds of 45-50 kts with a full fetch down the lake. Would have to watch surface temps though as you said as they could struggle to cool more than inland areas while the winds are onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 18Z GFS snow map fwiw. A cruel run for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 There'd be a period where it would get pretty intense downtown after the changeover if the 18z GFS is right. Model is indicating 925 mb winds of 45-50 kts with a full fetch down the lake. Would have to watch surface temps though as you said as they could struggle to cool more than inland areas while the winds are onshore. yeah I was looking at the wind potential too. Models still struggling with the evolution but as you said each of the last several GFS runs has continued to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 yeah...looks like the cooler air is a little closer on the doorstep since the southern stream is kinda letting that northern clipper go on through and drag the cool air behind first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 18Z PGFS continues to be weaker than op. Narrow swath of snow from northeast IL up into eastern WI. Naso much elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Chicago gets drilled on this run after the changeover. This has always been my solution of choice. I'm optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This has always been my solution of choice. I'm optimistic. Somewhere from Chicago to Rockford gets 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 yeah I was looking at the wind potential too. Models still struggling with the evolution but as you said each of the last several GFS runs has continued to slow down. Imagine the wind potential with a 00z GGEM type solution (~970 just east of Lake Michigan). Most of the big bombs of the past have either gone west or too far east of Lake Michigan. There's few if any examples of that kind of low going just east of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 18Z GFS snow map fwiw. Going to be in Decatur for the holiday, and would love this evolution. Hard to put much faith in anything until Monday or so though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Imagine the wind potential with a 00z GGEM type solution (~970 just east of Lake Michigan). Most of the big bombs of the past have either gone west or too far east of Lake Michigan. There's few if any examples of that kind of low going just east of the lake. With all of the bickering about track, the winds with a bombing low are still the most interesting aspect to me. I was never in the game for accumulations, but I'd like to see it deepen rapidly around the lakes, not after it enters Canada. Can you imagine the blizzard conditions? It's just a matter of where it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Nice hit imby but not buying it, we shall see, the New GFS went right up the gut of the Lower keeping us all rain. But this is a trend in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Tropical tidbits snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 ^^^ Nice little 1-3 reaching out into the LAF pingertropolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Question: at what point will some of the energy out west enter the RAOB network? I'm assuming the best sampling won't occur until it reaches land, but does the network extend out into the Pacific at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Glancing over 18z GFS COBB data: KDPA: RASN starting on 12/24 at 15z, snow begins at 12/25 3z. Accumulation of 7.3". KORD: RASN throughout nearly the entire event, only ending as snow. Accumulation of 1.6". For perspective, that's a 5.7" gradient between 18.3 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Question: at what point will some of the energy out west enter the RAOB network? I'm assuming the best sampling won't occur until it reaches land, but does the network extend out into the Pacific at all? My estimate yesterday was Main energy comes onshore to Oregon/Washington ~12z 21DEC14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Question: at what point will some of the energy out west enter the RAOB network? I'm assuming the best sampling won't occur until it reaches land, but does the network extend out into the Pacific at all? Doesn't exactly relate to this storm, but for future reference on sampling: UCAR produced this chart of radiosonde locations across Alaska. Good for those pieces of energy that slide along the AK coastline before dropping into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Glancing over 18z GFS COBB data: KDPA: RASN starting on 12/24 at 15z, snow begins at 12/25 3z. Accumulation of 7.3". KORD: RASN throughout nearly the entire event, only ending as snow. Accumulation of 1.6". For perspective, that's a 5.7" gradient between 18.3 miles. What? DPA switches to snow a lot sooner than 3z. Look at some soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Bigger view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Thanks for the responses guys. Appreciate the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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