harrisale Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 White towel time. Christmas with a few windblown LES induced +SHSN is all I ask for. Starting to seem that way but I'll give it until the 00Z suite. I was never optimistic for big defo snows, was just hoping to generate some solid wrap around snows and maybe a shot at some brief blizzard conditions. Although that hope is beginning to fade as well. I still love a good wind storm, so at least there's that. Ontario was never in this one. There were a few OP runs and numerous ensemble members from the various models with a nice hit for here (ie yesterday's 12Z EURO EPS control). With the range of solutions on the table (especially in the previous days) its unrealistic to say we were never in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 we're all getting rain with backwash snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 From the beginning this one has always been on the warm side for someone in the region. I'll take a intense warm system in trade for breaking the same ZZZ pattern we have been experiencing for the last 20 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12z GEFS hours 90-108 90 96 102 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Still might see some flurries and mood flakes in Kitchener on Christmas morning. One can but hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12Z EURO .... 989 SLP over south central Michigan at H96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12Z EURO .... 989 SLP over south central Michigan at H96 Looks to lay down a thin band of accumulating snow over eastern IL/western IN up into western MI. Large area of snow showers/flurries from Iowa up into MN. Looks like it was close to developing something bigger, but didn't quite make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12Z EURO .... 989 SLP over south central Michigan at H96 firecrackergenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12Z EURO .... 989 SLP over south central Michigan at H96 Very different aloft compared to the OP GFS at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12Z EURO .... 989 SLP over south central Michigan at H96 Rapid deepening after that...sub 970 mb in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Strong cold front blasting through OH/WV between 102-108 with widespread snow showers behind it. Would at least give it a very wintry look for widespread areas on xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 frigid -6 850's in it's wake xmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Very different aloft compared to the OP GFS at the same time. Was just looking at that. GFS has a closed 540 dm contour while the Euro is more open aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 time to drop all references to Jan'78. I will not see that event soiled by comparison to this P.O.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Was just looking at that. GFS has a closed 540 dm contour while the Euro is more open aloft. EURO looks more similar to the GGEM at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 0 degree at 850's scraping the gulf by H96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 looks like chicago to MI special for the follow up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 EURO looks more similar to the GGEM at H5. Agreed. As far as the GGEM, comparing the 00z and 12z runs shows that there's some differences aloft but it leads to a radically different outcome at the surface. IMO we haven't seen a wholesale fundamental shift to take the earlier bombing scenario off the table...this is more of a smaller detail thing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Good call checking out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 4 days out. all this negativity is disheartening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 4 days out. all this negativity is disheartening. This. Though I get the pessimism for this one if you're in eastern MI or east. Farther west still well within the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 4 days out. all this negativity is disheartening. Models trending west and weaker. I'd love to be positive about this but the writing is on the wall. I mean you and parts of Canada can still cash in still but it isn't looking that great for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I said no way euro has bomb, loses bomb, brings it back and loses it again. is crow better boiled or roasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This. Though I get the pessimism for this one if you're in eastern MI or east. Farther west still well within the realm of possibilities. The problem is with the later phase and weaker system you don't get as strong of a comma head deformation, which means the further south you are the harder it will be to get appreciable snows. Not saying it is impossible but it is less likely because you need that stronger deformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I said no way euro has bomb, loses bomb, brings it back and loses it again. is crow better boiled or roasted? To be fair, it's just slower with bombing. You didn't bust yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 4 days out. all this negativity is disheartening. And it's beyond annoying. Take it to the other thread or shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Geos screwhole...toss it. USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_114.gif That'd be a fun solution though. The drive to big snows would be short for some. Yeah toss it! Mike Hamernik talking about the storm already. http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/forecast-snow-could-affect-christmas-eve-travel Someone in IL and WI is going to get a dumping by the looks of it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Yeah toss it! Mike Hamernik talking about the storm already. http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/forecast-snow-could-affect-christmas-eve-travel Someone in IL and WI is going to get a dumping by the looks of it now. Not only that, but Skilling busted out the Chinese model! http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/12/TSFeature_122014Header-839x1024.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Not only that, but Skilling busted out the Chinese model! http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/12/TSFeature_122014Header-839x1024.jpg Didn't even catch that! I don't think the heaviest snow axis would go any further than Cyclone or any further east than the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. Let's see what ridiculous solution the NAM has... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 And it's beyond annoying. Take it to the other thread or shut up Easy to say when you're sitting right under the deformation zone. EURO and GFS have backed off slightly on the wind gust potential. Much smaller area of 50kt+ H85 winds on both models compared to yesterday's runs. Actually the overall size of the windfield seems to have decreased as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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