RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Really nice wraparound signal still showing up on this run of the GFS, which verbatim mean that areas that miss out initially would get some accumulation Wednesday evening/night. Usual caveats about wraparound snows apply. I'd say this trough has a slightly higher chance than usual to produce some appreciable wraparound given slow progression northeast of the ULL and it not becoming vertically stacked until Xmas eve night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This is a fascinating storm to watch unfold in the modeling.... and I am inclined to say the Westward trend is probably not quite done yet. Strongly negative tilted wave/phasing argues for this to be further left/West than what is being modeled. That said... I am not really all that impressed with the thermal structure of this system... the one thing it may have going for it though is dynamic cooling with such a rapidly deepening system... and that may keep some places that are looking marginal on the Eastern envelope of things in the game... although with the cruddy antecedent airmass ahead of it that might be hard to do. Lots of things still on the table here with this one and a couple runs that are trending better for Northern Illinois and Wisconsin will have to be watched and see if its just momentary blips or if its a true trend. Would like to see the Euro suite fall more in line though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This is a fascinating storm to watch unfold in the modeling.... and I am inclined to say the Westward trend is probably not quite done yet. Strongly negative tilted wave/phasing argues for this to be further left/West than what is being modeled. That said... I am not really all that impressed with the thermal structure of this system... the one thing it may have going for it though is dynamic cooling with such a rapidly deepening system... and that may keep some places that are looking marginal on the Eastern envelope of things in the game... although with the cruddy antecedent airmass ahead of it that might be hard to do. Lots of things still on the table here with this one and a couple runs that are trending better for Northern Illinois and Wisconsin will have to be watched and see if its just momentary blips or if its a true trend. Would like to see the Euro suite fall more in line though. Do you buy the NNW turn at the end? Going from SC Indiana to the west shores of Lake Michigan just south of Muskegon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I am pretty sure i know what happens. The low pressure will track up along Lake Michigan. In the 6 years I've lived here, I've seen it over and over again. The storms like the relatively warmer waters of the lake. Can't wait..rain all next week..bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This is a fascinating storm to watch unfold in the modeling.... and I am inclined to say the Westward trend is probably not quite done yet. Strongly negative tilted wave/phasing argues for this to be further left/West than what is being modeled. That said... I am not really all that impressed with the thermal structure of this system... the one thing it may have going for it though is dynamic cooling with such a rapidly deepening system... and that may keep some places that are looking marginal on the Eastern envelope of things in the game... although with the cruddy antecedent airmass ahead of it that might be hard to do. Lots of things still on the table here with this one and a couple runs that are trending better for Northern Illinois and Wisconsin will have to be watched and see if its just momentary blips or if its a true trend. Would like to see the Euro suite fall more in line though.Good post. Felt the same about the thermal structure given the marginal antecedent airmass though latest GFS op run seems a bit more impressive with the thermal gradient. Completely agree that dynamic cooling is likely to play a role in the cold sector of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Do you buy the NNW turn at the end? Going from SC Indiana to the west shores of Lake Michigan just south of Muskegon? See my post above. I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Frozen puddle and dusting Christmas morning for most, the classic SE quadrant storm scenario. What really sucks is that all of the lower peninsula looks screwed. What a shame for the ski resorts up north. They rely on this time year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Classic warm tuck around the low on the 12z GFS. IND, FWA, LAF all torching in the low-mid 50's while EVV is in the upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Do you buy the NNW turn at the end? Going from SC Indiana to the west shores of Lake Michigan just south of Muskegon? Do I buy it? Yes its very possible with intense storm systems to back up like that particularly if they fujiwara around the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Oh boy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Do you buy the NNW turn at the end? Going from SC Indiana to the west shores of Lake Michigan just south of Muskegon? what's not to buy, it's a classic track for a bombing low. good chance you see rain dude, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Ontario was never in this one. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Classic warm tuck around the low on the 12z GFS. IND, FWA, LAF all torching in the low-mid 50's while EVV is in the upper 30's. What is unreal about that map is that there is not one location, even up in Canada, that is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 You're golden. Enjoy. And pics please. This is a rain storm for MBY, I think you can take that to the bank. I'm supposed to be in McHenry Co for the holidays where things might be a bit more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Interesting disco from MPX discusses the best analog based on the same upper dynamics from a storm in 1991. Dropped 12+" in eastern MN, W WI and E IA. Certainly would coincide with the current wagons west trends. So much territory still in play for a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 FWIW, the progression of the H5-H3 potential vorticity hook on this run of the GFS lines up pretty well with the track of the sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12z PGFS shows a weaker storm with much less snow in the cold sector, similar to the 00z PGFS. Interestingly the PGFS had shown runs similar to the 27km GFS for several runs. Seems they've sort of switched solutions lol. With the Euro still much further east I'm not too confident about anything yet. If I lived east of where the 12z GFS showed the heavy snow I wouldn't be throwing in the towel yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Looking at soundings across northern IL from the 12z GFS.. DKB remains pretty much all snow through the event. DPA starts as snow and changes to liquid during the day then switching back to snow after 0z and a pretty decent DGZ to work with. ORD is mostly rain and doesn't changeover till about 3z but that nice slug of mid-level moisture moves in and it snows most of the night with the wrap around snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 What is unreal about that map is that there is not one location, even up in Canada, that is below freezing. Well, I think we should expect that with a bombing low as modeled by the op GFS. But here's your trailing cold air...not that's it super impressive or anything. Would've been nice if we had that closer to being ingested into the system...but, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12z Uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Seems like there's been some ticks toward a slower solution as of late (at least among the models that were faster). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 GEM looks weaker and east through 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 GEM looks similar to the PGFS. 27km op GFS sort of on it's own, although the 84hr (lol) NAM seems to be on board. IIRC the 27km GFS was supposed to be dead and gone by now, so we wouldn't have even been able to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I'm not taking it to the bank or anything but this one checks a couple key rain boxes, notably a garbage antecedent airmass, probability of a massive warm tongue associated with the strongly negatively tilted trough, and sloppy look at 850. On the plus side, good things can happen when a low undergoing rapid deepening cuts NNE just to your east. This is a rain storm for MBY, I think you can take that to the bank. I'm supposed to be in McHenry Co for the holidays where things might be a bit more interesting. Someone hack your computer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Wow, radically different solution on the 12z GGEM compared to previous run. Bottom line, don't trust anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Someone hack your computer? He's clearly too emotionally invested. Run to run mood changes. Bottom line, don't trust anything yet. Correct. Lots to sort out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Wow, radically different solution on the 12z GGEM compared to previous run. Bottom line, don't trust anything yet. Yeah models are all over the place at this point. Who knows what the Euro will come out with. Wouldn't be surprised to see another <965mb bomb over Detroit. 12z GEM at 96hrs. Not much to speak of regarding wintry precip at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Yeah I am checking out on this one, it was fun to track for a while but this isn't going to be anything interesting here other than rain and dryslot. Maybe some flurries on the backside if we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Yeah models are all over the place at this point. Who knows what the Euro will come out with. Wouldn't be surprised to see another <965mb bomb over Detroit. if this is a bomb, it's a dirty bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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