Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The 12z Euro EPS control run is actually the most generous yet for us in terms of snowfall. 3-6" here, a larger 6-9" swath from western KY up through sw MI. LAF/Indy ends up the biggest winner between this system and the one right after Xmas. Well really the entire state does great between both of them. Solid signal....pretty high bar being set in the very early stages of tracking...thanks for the images btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 sexiest looking turd everHaha! That's awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Maybe someone else with better access can comment on this but it seems like one of the reasons that the op Euro isn't more bullish on snow is because it has marginal 2m temps in the areas that are cold enough aloft. If that's playing into this then then a relatively minor colder shift would make things look more snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Maybe someone else with better access can comment on this but it seems like one of the reasons that the op Euro isn't more bullish on snow is because it has marginal 2m temps in the areas that are cold enough aloft. If that's playing into this then then a relatively minor colder shift would make things look more snowy. Yeah could be. 12z GFS temps at 156hr (0z 24th) are low to mid 30's across say northern IL while the Euro has low to mid 40's across the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 IND AFD: LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK. WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah could be. 12z GFS temps at 156hr (0z 24th) are low to mid 30's across say northern IL while the Euro has low to mid 40's across the same area. What about after that? Based on the limited data I'm looking at, it looks like nobody in IN/MI etc is below freezing from 168-180 hours while precip is falling. If the Euro is not taking that as snow, then it could be affecting the snow output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Maybe someone else with better access can comment on this but it seems like one of the reasons that the op Euro isn't more bullish on snow is because it has marginal 2m temps in the areas that are cold enough aloft. If that's playing into this then then a relatively minor colder shift would make things look more snowy. Yeah the GFS is doing the same to an extend as well, and I am having a hard time buying those surface temperatures with the 850 and 925mb temperatures being favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looking at the individual Euro ensemble members, some most have colder thermal profiles in the low levels because they are generating much larger and heavier (8"-16" or more) across the progged QPF region now or further west say eastern AR/Memphis due north all the way to WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 What about after that? Based on the limited data I'm looking at, it looks like nobody in IN/MI etc is below freezing from 168-180 hours while precip is falling. If the Euro is not taking that as snow, then it could be affecting the snow output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Here are the times and precip maps in question: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah the GFS is doing the same to an extend as well, and I am having a hard time buying those surface temperatures with the 850 and 925mb temperatures being favorable. If there's no warm layers aloft then I agree, worry about the surface later. If it was a month or two ago, different story, but you'd think it shouldn't be hard to get manageable temps at the surface even if it's like 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The November 24th bomb this year that got to around 972mb or so, it looked like nobody was going to get any snow at this same time frame, but a lot of areas in wisconsin got 4-7", if this bomb happens, I think it may end up with more snow than the models show right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 end of the scale for height anomalies in the deep south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 If there's no warm layers aloft then I agree, worry about the surface later. If it was a month or two ago, different story, but you'd think it shouldn't be hard to get manageable temps at the surface even if it's like 33. Agreed, the models can be pretty poor with 2m temps. Given such a dynamic system, having favorable low level thicknesses/thermal profiles is more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Agreed, the models can be pretty poor with 2m temps. Given such a dynamic system, having favorable low level thicknesses/thermal profiles is more important. I was 10 years old with my first weather kit in FWA when it hit, and if memory serves me, we started with rain, woke up with all the windows having the rain that fell frozen on them, then of course the snow. sorry, i meant the 78' blizzard, referencing ptype...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 For comparison purposes, ECMWF op is east of the ensembles. For 168hr: Euro Ensembles It's just staring at maps, but it's been a boring December, after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 18z GFS going way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Someone should put the GFS out of its misery, what a terribly unreliable model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 GFS phases later but it still produces a really deep system. At least it didn't lose it entirely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 GFS phases later but it still produces a really deep system. At least it didn't lose it entirely lol New GFS Old GFS The new GFS is much closer to the Euro and you can see why the old GFS is having issues. Much flatter with the vort and completely missing the blocking in the Canadian Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The November 24th bomb this year that got to around 972mb or so, it looked like nobody was going to get any snow at this same time frame, but a lot of areas in wisconsin got 4-7", if this bomb happens, I think it may end up with more snow than the models show right now. This. Snowfall got better and better as we got closer. Some subtle changes could make for much more snow further south to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well, looking forward to a wet, windy, and definitely raw Christmas Eve. Even though at this point it looks to be a non event for NE IL, outside of perhaps some moderate to high winds... it really is an impressive storm as modeled, although, in the next few days, I would not be surprised if the models back off on it a bit. But, that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The Jan 1978 chatter is only going to get worse if we get more model runs like what we've seen, so I've put together 500 mb loops from January 25-26, 1978 and today's 12z ECMWF progs for the relevant timeframe. You be the judge. One thing that is much different than 1978 is it looks like we'll have much less cold air to work with...the baroclinic zone was more impressive in 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It's beyond funny some people are writing this off as a non event for their area and we're still so far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah....far too anamalous of an event being modeled to write anything off...imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That's consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It's beyond funny some people are writing this off as a non event for their area and we're still so far away. They expect they must see 30" clown maps with such a strong system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 They expect they must see 30" clown maps with such a strong system. That is one of the reasons. Or that is must produce big snows given the track and the time of the year. Plenty of time for things to change for the better, or for worse. Will be a fun weekend of watching this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It's beyond funny some people are writing this off as a non event for their area and we're still so far away. Trolling or uneducated, maybe a combo of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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